UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Benfica vs Celtic prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Europa League: the Benfica vs Celtic match is scheduled on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). With a 74% win probability, Benfica go in as strong favourites against Celtic (7%), with the draw rated at 19%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (17.8%), ahead of 2-0 (17.6%) and 3-0 (11.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Benfica have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Celtic have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Recent momentum is clearly with Benfica. On average Benfica score 2.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Celtic score 0.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, Benfica sit 7th with 3 points from 1 games, Celtic 28th with 0 points from 1. 21 places separate the two sides.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Benfica, 0 for Celtic and 1 draw. The most recent ended Benfica 2-1 Celtic (Nov 20, 2012). In double chance terms, "Benfica or draw" stands at 93%, "Celtic or draw" at 26% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Benfica are tipped by our AI model in this Benfica v Celtic (74%). In the table, Benfica (7th, 3 pts) host Celtic (28th, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Benfica – Celtic. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 64% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Benfica 1-0 Celtic | 17.8% |
| Benfica 2-0 Celtic | 17.6% |
| Benfica 3-0 Celtic | 11.6% |
| Benfica 0-0 Celtic | 9.0% |
| Benfica 1-1 Celtic | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.41 goals in total (1.98 for Benfica, 0.43 for Celtic): over 2.5 goals has a 43% probability and both teams to score 30%. Benfica keep a clean sheet in 65% of scenarios, Celtic in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Benfica expected goals | 1.98 |
| Celtic expected goals | 0.43 |
| Both teams to score | 30% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% |
| Benfica clean sheet | 65% |
| Celtic clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Benfica
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto · Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan · UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Moreirense · Primeira Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Maritimo · Primeira Liga | 3-0 | W |
Celtic
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Rangers · Premiership | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC · UEFA Europa League | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Rangers · League Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 9, 2026 | ST Johnstone · Premiership | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | ST Mirren · Premiership | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Celtic | 28 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2012 | Benfica 2-1 Celtic | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 19, 2012 | Celtic 0-0 Benfica | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Benfica
No absences reported.
Celtic
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Benfica
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Lenglet4/5
- G. Prestianni4/5
- S. Dahl4/5
- T. Araujo4/5
- V. Pavlidis4/5
- D. Banjaqui3/5
- J. Palhinha3/5
- L. Barreiro3/5
- Rafa Silva3/5
- S. Soares3/5
- A. Bah2/5
Celtic
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. McGregor5/5
- L. Scales5/5
- M. Baur5/5
- C. Carter-Vickers4/5
- A. Trusty3/5
- B. Nygren3/5
- C. Donovan3/5
- H. Hassan3/5
- K. Tierney3/5
- V. Sinisalo3/5
- C. Duran2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Benfica vs Celtic prediction?
Our AI gives Benfica a 74% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Celtic 7%. Benfica are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Benfica vs Celtic?
1-0 (17.8%), followed by 2-0 (17.6%), 3-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (9.0%) and 1-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Celtic?
The probability that both Benfica and Celtic score is 30%. Benfica have a 65% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Celtic 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Benfica vs Celtic?
The model expects 2.41 goals (1.98 for Benfica, 0.43 for Celtic). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.
When and where is Benfica vs Celtic played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League.
What form are Benfica and Celtic in?
Benfica: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 4 conceded). Celtic: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Celtic?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Benfica, 0 for Celtic and 1 draw. The most recent ended Benfica 2-1 Celtic (Nov 20, 2012).
How is the Benfica vs Celtic prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.98 for Benfica, 0.43 for Celtic) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Benfica predictions
- All Celtic predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology