UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Red Bull Salzburg take on AC Milan on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), a UEFA Europa League fixture. Venue: Red Bull Arena, Salzburg. With a 68% win probability, Red Bull Salzburg go in as strong favourites against AC Milan (13%), with the draw rated at 19%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (11.1%), ahead of 1-0 (10.0%) and 2-1 (9.8%).
Red Bull Salzburg are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 13 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, AC Milan have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Red Bull Salzburg. On average Red Bull Salzburg score 2.60 and concede 0.40 goals per game; AC Milan score 1.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Red Bull Salzburg sit 14th with 3 points from 1 games, AC Milan 30th with 0 points from 1. 16 places separate the two sides.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Red Bull Salzburg, 1 for AC Milan and 1 draw. The most recent ended AC Milan 4-0 Red Bull Salzburg (Nov 2, 2022). In double chance terms, "Red Bull Salzburg or draw" stands at 87%, "AC Milan or draw" at 32% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Red Bull Salzburg are tipped by our AI model in this Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan (68%). On recent form, Red Bull Salzburg are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while AC Milan have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Red Bull Salzburg – AC Milan. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg 2-0 AC Milan | 11.1% |
| Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 AC Milan | 10.0% |
| Red Bull Salzburg 2-1 AC Milan | 9.8% |
| Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 AC Milan | 8.8% |
| Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 AC Milan | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.10 goals in total (2.22 for Red Bull Salzburg, 0.88 for AC Milan): over 2.5 goals has a 60% probability and both teams to score 52%. Everything points to an open game. Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, AC Milan in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg expected goals | 2.22 |
| AC Milan expected goals | 0.88 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet | 42% |
| AC Milan clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Red Bull Salzburg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sturm Graz · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Levski Sofia · UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Ried · Bundesliga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | SKN ST. Polten · Cup | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Rapid Vienna · Bundesliga | 5-1 | W |
AC Milan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lecce · Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Benfica · UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lazio · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | 14 | 3 | 1 |
| AC Milan | 30 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2022 | AC Milan 4-0 Red Bull Salzburg | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2022 | Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 AC Milan | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Red Bull Salzburg
No absences reported.
AC Milan
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Red Bull Salzburg
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Barry4/4
- B. Mazurek4/4
- D. Schmid4/4
- E. Baidoo4/4
- K. Boma4/4
- N. Veratschnig4/4
- Christian Zawieschitzky3/4
- H. Tabaković3/4
- S. Kitano3/4
- Y. Vertessen3/4
- Valentin Zabransky2/4
AC Milan
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Ramos4/5
- K. De Winter4/5
- M. Maignan4/5
- S. Pavlovic4/5
- A. Cisse3/5
- L. Modric3/5
- M. Gila3/5
- S. Chukwueze3/5
- Y. Musah3/5
- A. Rabiot2/5
- D. Bartesaghi2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan prediction?
Our AI gives Red Bull Salzburg a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and AC Milan 13%. Red Bull Salzburg are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan?
2-0 (11.1%), followed by 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (8.8%) and 3-0 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan?
The probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan score is 52%. Red Bull Salzburg have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AC Milan 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan?
The model expects 3.10 goals (2.22 for Red Bull Salzburg, 0.88 for AC Milan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 60%, over 3.5 goals 38%.
When and where is Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Red Bull Arena, Salzburg.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan in?
Red Bull Salzburg: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 2 conceded). AC Milan: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Red Bull Salzburg, 1 for AC Milan and 1 draw. The most recent ended AC Milan 4-0 Red Bull Salzburg (Nov 2, 2022).
How is the Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.22 for Red Bull Salzburg, 0.88 for AC Milan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Red Bull Salzburg predictions
- All AC Milan predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology