UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Europa League: the Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen match is scheduled on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time). Venue: Stadion Poznan. Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen clear favourites: a 92% chance of winning, against 6% for the draw and 2% for Lech Poznan. On the correct score, 0-3 comes out on top (10.0%), followed by 0-4 (10.0%) and 0-5 (8.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lech Poznan have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Bayer Leverkusen have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Bayer Leverkusen therefore arrive in far better shape than Lech Poznan. On average Lech Poznan score 1.80 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Bayer Leverkusen score 2.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Lech Poznan sit 35th with 0 points from 1 games, Bayer Leverkusen 8th with 3 points from 1. 27 places separate the two sides.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Bayer Leverkusen: M. Culbreath, G. Doue and K. Eichhorn (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Lech Poznan or draw" stands at 8%, "Bayer Leverkusen or draw" at 98% and "no draw" at 94%.
In short : Bayer Leverkusen are tipped by our AI model in this Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen (92%). On recent form, Lech Poznan have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Bayer Leverkusen have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-3.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lech Poznan – Bayer Leverkusen. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (10.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lech Poznan 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen | 10.0% |
| Lech Poznan 0-4 Bayer Leverkusen | 10.0% |
| Lech Poznan 0-5 Bayer Leverkusen | 8.0% |
| Lech Poznan 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen | 7.5% |
| Lech Poznan 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.67 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 4.00 for Bayer Leverkusen, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 85% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Goals look likely in this one. Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, Bayer Leverkusen in 51%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lech Poznan expected goals | 0.67 |
| Bayer Leverkusen expected goals | 4.00 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 69% |
| Lech Poznan clean sheet | 2% |
| Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet | 51% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lech Poznan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Energie Cottbus · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Radomiak Radom · Ekstraklasa | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Crystal Palace · UEFA Europa League | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze · Ekstraklasa | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Raków Częstochowa · Ekstraklasa | 1-0 | W |
Bayer Leverkusen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | RB Leipzig · Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Celje · UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Augsburg · Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 35 | 0 | 1 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Lech Poznan
No absences reported.
Bayer Leverkusen
- M. Culbreath (out)
- G. Doue (out)
- K. Eichhorn (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Lech Poznan
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- R. Murawski5/5
- A. Sayyadmanesh4/5
- J. Pereira4/5
- M. Gurgul4/5
- M. Ishak4/5
- M. Lis4/5
- M. Skrzypczak4/5
- P. Rodriguez4/5
- F. Jagiello3/5
- W. Monka3/5
- L. Palma2/5
Bayer Leverkusen
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Tapsoba5/5
- M. Flekken5/5
- A. Garcia4/5
- F. Medina4/5
- I. Maza4/5
- P. Schick4/5
- A. Moreira3/5
- E. Fernandez3/5
- J. Quansah3/5
- M. Diaby3/5
- M. Gutierrez3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction?
Our AI gives Lech Poznan a 2% chance of winning, the draw 6% and Bayer Leverkusen 92%. Bayer Leverkusen are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
0-3 (10.0%), followed by 0-4 (10.0%), 0-5 (8.0%), 0-2 (7.5%) and 1-3 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The probability that both Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen score is 48%. Lech Poznan have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bayer Leverkusen 51%.
How many goals should we expect in Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The model expects 4.67 goals (0.67 for Lech Poznan, 4.00 for Bayer Leverkusen). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 85%, over 3.5 goals 69%.
When and where is Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Stadion Poznan.
What form are Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Lech Poznan: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 9 conceded). Bayer Leverkusen: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded).
How is the Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.67 for Lech Poznan, 4.00 for Bayer Leverkusen) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Lech Poznan predictions
- All Bayer Leverkusen predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology