UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Europa League: the Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom match is scheduled on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time). Venue: epet ARENA, Prague. Our model makes Sparta Praha clear favourites: a 85% chance of winning, against 10% for the draw and 5% for Lillestrom. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.9%), followed by 3-0 (12.7%) and 4-0 (9.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sparta Praha have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Lillestrom have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Sparta Praha score 3.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Lillestrom score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Sparta Praha sit 3rd with 3 points from 1 games, Lillestrom 24th with 0 points from 1. 21 places separate the two sides.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sparta Praha and Lillestrom: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Sparta Praha or draw" stands at 95%, "Lillestrom or draw" at 15% and "no draw" at 90%.
In short : Sparta Praha are tipped by our AI model in this Sparta Praha v Lillestrom (85%). In the table, Sparta Praha (3rd, 3 pts) host Lillestrom (24th, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sparta Praha – Lillestrom. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sparta Praha 2-0 Lillestrom | 12.9% |
| Sparta Praha 3-0 Lillestrom | 12.7% |
| Sparta Praha 4-0 Lillestrom | 9.3% |
| Sparta Praha 1-0 Lillestrom | 8.8% |
| Sparta Praha 2-1 Lillestrom | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.94 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.57 for Lillestrom, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 68% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Goals look likely in this one. Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 57% of scenarios, Lillestrom in 5%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sparta Praha expected goals | 2.94 |
| Lillestrom expected goals | 0.57 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% |
| Sparta Praha clean sheet | 57% |
| Lillestrom clean sheet | 5% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sparta Praha
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sigma Olomouc · Czech Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia · UEFA Europa League | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FK Jablonec · Czech Liga | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Viktoria Žižkov · Cup | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Hradec Králové · Czech Liga | 1-2 | L |
Lillestrom
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Bærum · NM Cupen | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Viking · Eliteserien | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Torreense · UEFA Europa League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Valerenga · Eliteserien | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brann · Eliteserien | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Praha | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Lillestrom | 24 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sparta Praha and Lillestrom: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Sparta Praha
No absences reported.
Lillestrom
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sparta Praha
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Alcocer4/5
- L. Mbe Soh4/5
- A. Karabec3/5
- J. Brunes3/5
- J. Mercado3/5
- J. Surovcik3/5
- M. Suchomel3/5
- R. Macek3/5
- T. Guddal3/5
- A. Irving2/5
- H. Sochurek2/5
Lillestrom
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Nyheim4/4
- L. Ranger4/4
- P. Dahlberg4/4
- D. Bassi3/4
- E. Kitolano3/4
- F. Elkaer3/4
- F. Gulbrandsen3/4
- Felix Va3/4
- R. Gabrielsen3/4
- S. Foss3/4
- Y. Ibrahimaj3/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom prediction?
Our AI gives Sparta Praha a 85% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Lillestrom 5%. Sparta Praha are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom?
2-0 (12.9%), followed by 3-0 (12.7%), 4-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%) and 2-1 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom?
The probability that both Sparta Praha and Lillestrom score is 41%. Sparta Praha have a 57% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lillestrom 5%.
How many goals should we expect in Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom?
The model expects 3.51 goals (2.94 for Sparta Praha, 0.57 for Lillestrom). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 68%, over 3.5 goals 47%.
When and where is Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: epet ARENA, Prague.
What form are Sparta Praha and Lillestrom in?
Sparta Praha: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 3 conceded). Lillestrom: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.94 for Sparta Praha, 0.57 for Lillestrom) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sparta Praha predictions
- All Lillestrom predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology