UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Europa League: the Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad match is scheduled on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time). Venue: Den Dreef, Heverlee. Our model makes Union St. Gilloise clear favourites: a 91% chance of winning, against 6% for the draw and 3% for Real Sociedad. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (9.5%), followed by 4-0 (9.5%) and 5-0 (7.6%).
Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 16 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Real Sociedad have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Union St. Gilloise therefore arrive in far better shape than Real Sociedad. On average Union St. Gilloise score 3.20 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Real Sociedad score 1.40 and concede 2.00. In the table, Union St. Gilloise sit 5th with 3 points from 1 games, Real Sociedad 22nd with 0 points from 1. 17 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Union St. Gilloise have averaged 3.34 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.46 for Real Sociedad.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Union St. Gilloise or draw" stands at 97%, "Real Sociedad or draw" at 9% and "no draw" at 94%.
In short : Union St. Gilloise are tipped by our AI model in this Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad (91%). In the table, Union St. Gilloise (5th, 3 pts) host Real Sociedad (22nd, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Union St. Gilloise – Real Sociedad. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (9.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 41% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Real Sociedad | 9.5% |
| Union St. Gilloise 4-0 Real Sociedad | 9.5% |
| Union St. Gilloise 5-0 Real Sociedad | 7.6% |
| Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Real Sociedad | 7.1% |
| Union St. Gilloise 3-1 Real Sociedad | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 4.00 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.72 for Real Sociedad, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 85% and "both teams to score" at 50%. Goals look likely in this one. Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Real Sociedad in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise expected goals | 4.00 |
| Real Sociedad expected goals | 0.72 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 69% |
| Union St. Gilloise clean sheet | 49% |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Union St. Gilloise
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Antwerp · Jupiler Pro League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Plzen · UEFA Europa League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lommel United · Jupiler Pro League | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Charleroi · Jupiler Pro League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | St. Truiden · Jupiler Pro League | 3-0 | W |
Real Sociedad
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Athletic Club · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Valencia · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Bournemouth · UEFA Europa League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Real Sociedad | 22 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Union St. Gilloise
No absences reported.
Real Sociedad
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Union St. Gilloise
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Zeneli5/5
- H. Koffi5/5
- L. Patris5/5
- M. Biondic5/5
- M. Sylla5/5
- A. Zorgane4/5
- R. Mofokeng4/5
- Guilherme Smith3/5
- K. Mac Allister3/5
- K. Van De Perre3/5
- O. Kricfalusi3/5
Real Sociedad
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Guedes4/5
- A. Remiro3/5
- C. Soler3/5
- J. Aramburu3/5
- L. Beitia3/5
- L. Sucic3/5
- M. Oyarzabal3/5
- M. Sarr3/5
- S. Gomez3/5
- Y. Herrera3/5
- J. Gorrotxategi2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad prediction?
Our AI gives Union St. Gilloise a 91% chance of winning, the draw 6% and Real Sociedad 3%. Union St. Gilloise are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
3-0 (9.5%), followed by 4-0 (9.5%), 5-0 (7.6%), 2-0 (7.1%) and 3-1 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
The probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad score is 50%. Union St. Gilloise have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Sociedad 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
The model expects 4.72 goals (4.00 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.72 for Real Sociedad). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 85%, over 3.5 goals 69%.
When and where is Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Den Dreef, Heverlee.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad in?
Union St. Gilloise: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 2 conceded). Real Sociedad: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 10 conceded).
How is the Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.72 for Real Sociedad) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Union St. Gilloise predictions
- All Real Sociedad predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology