UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
Lyon vs Crystal Palace prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Lyon take on Crystal Palace on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), a UEFA Europa League fixture. Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon. Our model makes Lyon clear favourites: a 66% chance of winning, against 19% for the draw and 15% for Crystal Palace. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (9.9%), followed by 2-1 (9.8%) and 1-0 (8.7%).
Lyon are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Crystal Palace have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Lyon therefore arrive in far better shape than Crystal Palace. On average Lyon score 2.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Crystal Palace score 1.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Lyon sit 11th with 3 points from 1 games, Crystal Palace 2nd with 3 points from 1. 9 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lyon, 1 for Crystal Palace and 0 draws. The most recent ended Crystal Palace 2-0 Lyon (Aug 5, 2023). Lyon out or doubtful: M. Niakhate. In double chance terms, "Lyon or draw" stands at 85%, "Crystal Palace or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Lyon are favourites for this Lyon v Crystal Palace, with a 66% win probability from our model. In the table, Lyon (11th, 3 pts) host Crystal Palace (2nd, 3 pts). One to watch: Lyon will be without M. Niakhate.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lyon – Crystal Palace. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (9.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lyon 2-0 Crystal Palace | 9.9% |
| Lyon 2-1 Crystal Palace | 9.8% |
| Lyon 1-0 Crystal Palace | 8.7% |
| Lyon 1-1 Crystal Palace | 8.6% |
| Lyon 3-0 Crystal Palace | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.28 expected goals for Lyon and 0.99 for Crystal Palace, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 64% and "both teams to score" at 56%. Goals look likely in this one. Lyon keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Crystal Palace in 10%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lyon expected goals | 2.28 |
| Crystal Palace expected goals | 0.99 |
| Both teams to score | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% |
| Lyon clean sheet | 37% |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | 10% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lyon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht · UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Auxerre · Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
Crystal Palace
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bristol City · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Lech Poznan · UEFA Europa League | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Ipswich · Premier League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Middlesbrough · EFL Cup | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 11 | 3 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2023 | Crystal Palace 2-0 Lyon | Club Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Lyon
- M. Niakhate (out)
Crystal Palace
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Lyon
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Corentin Tolisso3/5
- Dominik Greif3/5
- Ernest Nuamah3/5
- Felix Bacher3/5
- Loïs Openda3/5
- Mads Bidstrup3/5
- Moussa Niakhaté3/5
- Tyler Morton3/5
- Zachary Athekame3/5
- Abner Vinícius2/5
- L. Openda2/5
Crystal Palace
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- Q. Timber4/4
- A. Disasi3/4
- A. Khalaili3/4
- A. Wharton3/4
- C. Richards3/4
- D. Kamada3/4
- H. Ahanor3/4
- J. Larsen3/4
- T. Mitchell3/4
- W. Benitez3/4
- Y. Pino3/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Lyon vs Crystal Palace prediction?
Our AI gives Lyon a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Crystal Palace 15%. Lyon are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Lyon vs Crystal Palace?
2-0 (9.9%), followed by 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.7%), 1-1 (8.6%) and 3-0 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Crystal Palace?
The probability that both Lyon and Crystal Palace score is 56%. Lyon have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Crystal Palace 10%.
How many goals should we expect in Lyon vs Crystal Palace?
The model expects 3.27 goals (2.28 for Lyon, 0.99 for Crystal Palace). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 64%, over 3.5 goals 41%.
When and where is Lyon vs Crystal Palace played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon.
What form are Lyon and Crystal Palace in?
Lyon: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded). Crystal Palace: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Crystal Palace?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lyon, 1 for Crystal Palace and 0 draws. The most recent ended Crystal Palace 2-0 Lyon (Aug 5, 2023).
How is the Lyon vs Crystal Palace prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.28 for Lyon, 0.99 for Crystal Palace) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Lyon predictions
- All Crystal Palace predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology