UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Europa League: the Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus match is scheduled on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). With a 79% win probability, Olympiakos Piraeus go in as strong favourites against Marseille (9%), with the draw rated at 12%. The most likely correct score is 1-3 (8.1%), ahead of 0-3 (7.5%) and 1-2 (7.5%).
Marseille have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 12. Over their last 5 matches, Olympiakos Piraeus have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Olympiakos Piraeus. On average Marseille score 0.80 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Olympiakos Piraeus score 1.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Marseille sit 32nd with 0 points from 1 games, Olympiakos Piraeus 13th with 3 points from 1. 19 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Marseille have averaged 1.40 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.53 for Olympiakos Piraeus.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Marseille, 2 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0 draws. The most recent ended Marseille 2-1 Olympiakos Piraeus (Dec 1, 2020). In double chance terms, "Marseille or draw" stands at 21%, "Olympiakos Piraeus or draw" at 91% and "no draw" at 88%.
In short : Our model backs Olympiakos Piraeus to edge Marseille (79% probability). On recent form, Marseille are struggling (5 losses in 5) while Olympiakos Piraeus have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 81%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Marseille – Olympiakos Piraeus. 1-3 is the single most likely scoreline (8.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 37% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Marseille 1-3 Olympiakos Piraeus | 8.1% |
| Marseille 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus | 7.5% |
| Marseille 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus | 7.5% |
| Marseille 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus | 6.9% |
| Marseille 1-4 Olympiakos Piraeus | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.35 goals in total (1.08 for Marseille, 3.27 for Olympiakos Piraeus): over 2.5 goals has a 81% probability and both teams to score 64%. Everything points to an open game. Marseille keep a clean sheet in 4% of scenarios, Olympiakos Piraeus in 34%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Marseille expected goals | 1.08 |
| Olympiakos Piraeus expected goals | 3.27 |
| Both teams to score | 64% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 63% |
| Marseille clean sheet | 4% |
| Olympiakos Piraeus clean sheet | 34% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Marseille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş · UEFA Europa League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
Olympiakos Piraeus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levadiakos · Super League 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Jagiellonia · UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | OFI · Super League 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Volos NFC · Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Volos NFC · Super League 1 | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 32 | 0 | 1 |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 13 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2020 | Marseille 2-1 Olympiakos Piraeus | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 21, 2020 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Marseille | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 23, 2011 | Marseille 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 13, 2011 | Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 Marseille | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Marseille
No absences reported.
Olympiakos Piraeus
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Marseille
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Emerson4/5
- Amine Gouiri3/5
- Amine Harit3/5
- Angel Gomes3/5
- Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley3/5
- Himad Abdelli3/5
- Igor Paixão3/5
- Jeffrey De Lange3/5
- Pierre-Emile Højbjerg3/5
- Timothy Weah3/5
- A. Harit2/5
Olympiakos Piraeus
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Chiquinho4/5
- Jota Silva4/5
- P. Retsos4/5
- S. Ortega4/5
- G. Puerta3/5
- K. Fortounis3/5
- L. Pirola3/5
- M. Pedersen3/5
- N. Tiknizyan3/5
- R. Freuler3/5
- A. Gonzalez2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Red Bull Salzburg – AC MilanOct 15, 2026
- Benfica – CelticOct 15, 2026
- Dinamo Zagreb – AnderlechtOct 15, 2026
- Bournemouth – Sturm GrazOct 15, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim – BeşiktaşOct 15, 2026
- Jagiellonia – Ararat-ArmeniaOct 15, 2026
- Ferencvarosi TC – PlzenOct 15, 2026
- Rennes – OFIOct 15, 2026
- Celta Vigo – JuventusOct 15, 2026
- NEC Nijmegen – Levski SofiaOct 15, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus prediction?
Our AI gives Marseille a 9% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Olympiakos Piraeus 79%. Olympiakos Piraeus are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
1-3 (8.1%), followed by 0-3 (7.5%), 1-2 (7.5%), 0-2 (6.9%) and 1-4 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
The probability that both Marseille and Olympiakos Piraeus score is 64%. Marseille have a 4% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Olympiakos Piraeus 34%.
How many goals should we expect in Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
The model expects 4.35 goals (1.08 for Marseille, 3.27 for Olympiakos Piraeus). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 81%, over 3.5 goals 63%.
When and where is Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League.
What form are Marseille and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Marseille: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 12 conceded). Olympiakos Piraeus: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Olympiakos Piraeus?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Marseille, 2 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0 draws. The most recent ended Marseille 2-1 Olympiakos Piraeus (Dec 1, 2020).
How is the Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.08 for Marseille, 3.27 for Olympiakos Piraeus) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Marseille predictions
- All Olympiakos Piraeus predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology