Skip to content
Elofoot

UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia prediction: correct score and AI tips

JagielloniaJagiellonia–Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Match analysis

UEFA Europa League: Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia kicks off on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Chorten Arena, Bialystok. The edge goes to Jagiellonia (51%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a Ararat-Armenia win (24%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.8%), ahead of 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).

Over their last 5 matches, Jagiellonia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Ararat-Armenia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Jagiellonia score 2.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Ararat-Armenia score 1.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Jagiellonia sit 21st with 0 points from 1 games, Ararat-Armenia 33rd with 0 points from 1. 12 places separate the two sides.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Jagiellonia or draw" stands at 76%, "Ararat-Armenia or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.

In short : Our model backs Jagiellonia to edge Ararat-Armenia (51% probability). In the table, Jagiellonia (21st, 0 pts) host Ararat-Armenia (33rd, 0 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 52%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

51%
Jagiellonia (Win)
25%
Draw
24%
Ararat-Armenia (Win)

Double chance

76%
Jagiellonia or draw
49%
Ararat-Armenia or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Jagiellonia – Ararat-Armenia. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Jagiellonia 1-1 Ararat-Armenia11.8%
Jagiellonia 1-0 Ararat-Armenia11.4%
Jagiellonia 2-1 Ararat-Armenia9.5%
Jagiellonia 2-0 Ararat-Armenia9.3%
Jagiellonia 0-1 Ararat-Armenia7.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.65 goals in total (1.62 for Jagiellonia, 1.03 for Ararat-Armenia): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Ararat-Armenia in 20%.

Probability
Jagiellonia expected goals1.62
Ararat-Armenia expected goals1.03
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Jagiellonia clean sheet36%
Ararat-Armenia clean sheet20%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Jagiellonia

DateOpponentScore
Sep 11, 2026Wisla Krakow · Ekstraklasa0-2L
Sep 6, 2026Slask Wroclaw · Ekstraklasa2-1W
Sep 3, 2026Lech Poznan · Ekstraklasa1-2L
Aug 30, 2026Raków Częstochowa · Ekstraklasa5-2W
Aug 27, 2026FC Iberia 1999 · UEFA Europa League2-1W

Ararat-Armenia

DateOpponentScore
Sep 16, 2026Sparta Praha · UEFA Europa League1-4L
Sep 11, 2026Syunik · Premier League3-0W
Sep 5, 2026Ararat · Premier League1-0W
Aug 31, 2026Pyunik Yerevan · Premier League1-2L
Aug 27, 2026Universitatea Craiova · UEFA Europa League1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Jagiellonia2101
Ararat-Armenia3301

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Jagiellonia

No absences reported.

Ararat-Armenia

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Jagiellonia

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • N. Prelec5/5
  • N. Wojtuszek5/5
  • S. Abramowicz5/5
  • T. Romanczuk5/5
  • K. Szmyt4/5
  • A. Klynge3/5
  • B. Vital3/5
  • G. Montoia3/5
  • Y. Kobayashi3/5
  • A. Konstantopoulos2/5
  • C. Polak2/5

Ararat-Armenia

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Junior Julio4/5
  • H. Oliveira3/5
  • Joao Bravim3/5
  • Sandro Lima3/5
  • A. Ambartsumyan2/5
  • A. Malis2/5
  • A. Serobyan2/5
  • B. Pereira2/5
  • B. R. Wilson Valdez2/5
  • Benny2/5
  • E. Grigoryan2/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia prediction?

Our AI gives Jagiellonia a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Ararat-Armenia 24%. Jagiellonia are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?

1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.3%) and 0-1 (7.3%).

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?

The probability that both Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia score is 52%. Jagiellonia have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ararat-Armenia 20%.

How many goals should we expect in Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?

The model expects 2.65 goals (1.62 for Jagiellonia, 1.03 for Ararat-Armenia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.

When and where is Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia played?

Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Chorten Arena, Bialystok.

What form are Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia in?

Jagiellonia: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded). Ararat-Armenia: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded).

How is the Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.62 for Jagiellonia, 1.03 for Ararat-Armenia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained