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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction: correct score and AI tips

BournemouthBournemouth–Sturm GrazSturm Graz

Match analysis

UEFA Europa League: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz kicks off on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. With a 82% win probability, Bournemouth go in as strong favourites against Sturm Graz (5%), with the draw rated at 13%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (15.6%), ahead of 3-0 (13.2%) and 1-0 (12.3%).

Over their last 5 matches, Bournemouth have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Sturm Graz have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Bournemouth score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Sturm Graz score 1.40 and concede 1.60. In the table, Bournemouth sit 10th with 3 points from 1 games, Sturm Graz 17th with 1 points from 1. 7 places separate the two sides.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bournemouth and Sturm Graz: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Bournemouth out or doubtful: J. Araujo, E. J. Kroupi, A. Scott, A. Adli (doubtful), D. Brooks (doubtful), J. Kluivert (doubtful) and V. Milosavljevic (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Bournemouth or draw" stands at 95%, "Sturm Graz or draw" at 18% and "no draw" at 87%.

In short : Bournemouth are tipped by our AI model in this Bournemouth v Sturm Graz (82%). On recent form, Bournemouth have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Sturm Graz have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

82%
Bournemouth (Win)
13%
Draw
5%
Sturm Graz (Win)

Double chance

95%
Bournemouth or draw
18%
Sturm Graz or draw
87%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Bournemouth – Sturm Graz. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Bournemouth 2-0 Sturm Graz15.6%
Bournemouth 3-0 Sturm Graz13.2%
Bournemouth 1-0 Sturm Graz12.3%
Bournemouth 4-0 Sturm Graz8.4%
Bournemouth 2-1 Sturm Graz7.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.03 goals in total (2.54 for Bournemouth, 0.49 for Sturm Graz): over 2.5 goals has a 58% probability and both teams to score 36%. Everything points to an open game. Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 61% of scenarios, Sturm Graz in 8%.

Probability
Bournemouth expected goals2.54
Sturm Graz expected goals0.49
Both teams to score36%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Bournemouth clean sheet61%
Sturm Graz clean sheet8%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Bournemouth

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Liverpool · Premier League0-1L
Sep 17, 2026Real Sociedad · UEFA Europa League2-1W
Sep 12, 2026Brentford · Premier League2-2D
Sep 8, 2026Lincoln · EFL Cup4-0W
Sep 5, 2026Newcastle · Premier League2-2D

Sturm Graz

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Red Bull Salzburg · Bundesliga0-3L
Sep 16, 2026Rennes · UEFA Europa League0-0D
Sep 13, 2026Lask Linz · Bundesliga2-1W
Sep 5, 2026Voitsberg · Cup4-1W
Aug 30, 2026Rapid Vienna · Bundesliga1-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Bournemouth1031
Sturm Graz1711

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bournemouth and Sturm Graz: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Bournemouth

  • J. Araujo (out)
  • E. J. Kroupi (out)
  • A. Scott (out)
  • A. Adli (doubtful)
  • D. Brooks (doubtful)
  • J. Kluivert (doubtful)
  • V. Milosavljevic (doubtful)

Sturm Graz

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Bournemouth

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Hill5/5
  • A. Scott4/5
  • A. Smith4/5
  • A. Truffert4/5
  • Evanilson4/5
  • J. Kluivert4/5
  • M. Tavernier4/5
  • Rayan4/5
  • T. Adams4/5
  • A. Silva3/5
  • António Silva2/5

Sturm Graz

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Heil4/4
  • J. Hodl4/4
  • A. Vallci3/4
  • D. Khudyakov3/4
  • J. Gorenc Stankovic3/4
  • J. Quarshie3/4
  • L. Weinhandl3/4
  • P. Koller3/4
  • S. Seidl3/4
  • V. Matoshi3/4
  • A. Malic2/4

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction?

Our AI gives Bournemouth a 82% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Sturm Graz 5%. Bournemouth are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

2-0 (15.6%), followed by 3-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.3%), 4-0 (8.4%) and 2-1 (7.6%).

Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

The probability that both Bournemouth and Sturm Graz score is 36%. Bournemouth have a 61% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sturm Graz 8%.

How many goals should we expect in Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

The model expects 3.03 goals (2.54 for Bournemouth, 0.49 for Sturm Graz). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 36%.

When and where is Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz played?

Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth.

What form are Bournemouth and Sturm Graz in?

Bournemouth: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Sturm Graz: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded).

How is the Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.54 for Bournemouth, 0.49 for Sturm Graz) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained