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UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)

AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction: correct score and AI tips

AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar–Hapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva

Match analysis

UEFA Europa League: AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva kicks off on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time). Venue: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar. Our model makes AZ Alkmaar clear favourites: a 69% chance of winning, against 18% for the draw and 13% for Hapoel Beer Sheva. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (10.8%), followed by 2-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (9.3%).

Over their last 5 matches, AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Hapoel Beer Sheva have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average AZ Alkmaar score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Hapoel Beer Sheva score 1.20 and concede 1.20. In the table, AZ Alkmaar sit 26th with 0 points from 1 games, Hapoel Beer Sheva 20th with 1 points from 1. 6 places separate the two sides.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. AZ Alkmaar out or doubtful: S. Resink. In double chance terms, "AZ Alkmaar or draw" stands at 87%, "Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw" at 31% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : Our model backs AZ Alkmaar to edge Hapoel Beer Sheva (69% probability). In the table, AZ Alkmaar (26th, 0 pts) host Hapoel Beer Sheva (20th, 1 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 62%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

69%
AZ Alkmaar (Win)
18%
Draw
13%
Hapoel Beer Sheva (Win)

Double chance

87%
AZ Alkmaar or draw
31%
Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Beer Sheva. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 46% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva10.8%
AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva9.7%
AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva9.3%
AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva8.3%
AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva8.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.32 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.90 for Hapoel Beer Sheva, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 62% and "both teams to score" at 54%. Goals look likely in this one. AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Hapoel Beer Sheva in 10%.

Probability
AZ Alkmaar expected goals2.32
Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals0.90
Both teams to score54%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals40%
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet41%
Hapoel Beer Sheva clean sheet10%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

AZ Alkmaar

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Telstar · Eredivisie1-0W
Sep 16, 2026Sunderland · UEFA Europa League0-1L
Sep 11, 2026Willem II · Eredivisie1-1D
Sep 6, 2026Heerenveen · Eredivisie3-2W
Aug 29, 2026GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie5-2W

Hapoel Beer Sheva

DateOpponentScore
Sep 19, 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona · Ligat Ha'al1-0W
Sep 16, 2026Dinamo Zagreb · UEFA Europa League0-0D
Sep 13, 2026Hapoel Petah Tikva · Ligat Ha'al2-0W
Sep 7, 2026Maccabi Tel Aviv · Ligat Ha'al1-4L
Sep 2, 2026Hapoel Haifa · Ligat Ha'al2-2D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
AZ Alkmaar2601
Hapoel Beer Sheva2011

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

AZ Alkmaar

  • S. Resink (out)

Hapoel Beer Sheva

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

AZ Alkmaar

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • E. Dijkstra5/5
  • J. De Busser5/5
  • L. Schouten5/5
  • M. Meerdink5/5
  • P. Koopmeiners5/5
  • R. Daal5/5
  • W. Goes5/5
  • D. Kwakman4/5
  • M. Chavez Garcia4/5
  • J. Clasie3/5
  • C. Stengs2/5

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • N. Yehoshua5/5
  • O. Marciano5/5
  • G. Mizrahi4/5
  • A. Ugarriza3/5
  • E. Peretz3/5
  • J. East3/5
  • Miguel Vitor3/5
  • P. Amador3/5
  • A. C. Ganah2/5
  • A. Forson2/5
  • I. Nachmias2/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction?

Our AI gives AZ Alkmaar a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Hapoel Beer Sheva 13%. AZ Alkmaar are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?

2-0 (10.8%), followed by 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%), 1-1 (8.3%) and 3-0 (8.3%).

Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?

The probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva score is 54%. AZ Alkmaar have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Hapoel Beer Sheva 10%.

How many goals should we expect in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?

The model expects 3.22 goals (2.32 for AZ Alkmaar, 0.90 for Hapoel Beer Sheva). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 62%, over 3.5 goals 40%.

When and where is AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva played?

Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar.

What form are AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva in?

AZ Alkmaar: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Hapoel Beer Sheva: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).

How is the AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.32 for AZ Alkmaar, 0.90 for Hapoel Beer Sheva) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained