Liga MX· Kick-off : Monday, November 9, 2026, 02:10 (UK time)
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Leon 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Leon (41%), while a draw was rated at only 23%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (66%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): missed.
Match analysis
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas was played on Monday, November 9, 2026 (Liga MX). Venue: Estadio León, Leon. Before kick-off, our model gave Leon a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Guadalajara Chivas 36%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (9.9%), ahead of 2-1 (8.6%) and 1-2 (7.9%).
Leon have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Guadalajara Chivas are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 8 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Guadalajara Chivas. On average Leon score 1.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Guadalajara Chivas score 1.60 and concede 0.80. In the table, Leon sit 9th with 22 points from 15 games, Guadalajara Chivas 3rd with 29 points from 15. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Leon have averaged 1.89 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.47 for Guadalajara Chivas.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Leon, 2 for Guadalajara Chivas and 0 draws. The most recent ended Guadalajara Chivas 5-0 Leon (Mar 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "Leon or draw" stands at 64%, "Guadalajara Chivas or draw" at 59% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Leon and Guadalajara Chivas meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 23%). In the table, Leon (9th, 22 pts) host Guadalajara Chivas (3rd, 29 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Leon – Guadalajara Chivas. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Leon 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas | 9.9% |
| Leon 2-1 Guadalajara Chivas | 8.6% |
| Leon 1-2 Guadalajara Chivas | 7.9% |
| Leon 2-2 Guadalajara Chivas | 6.9% |
| Leon 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas | 6.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.34 goals in total (1.74 for Leon, 1.60 for Guadalajara Chivas): over 2.5 goals has a 65% probability and both teams to score 66%. Everything points to an open game. Leon keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, Guadalajara Chivas in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Leon expected goals | 1.74 |
| Guadalajara Chivas expected goals | 1.60 |
| Both teams to score | 66% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% |
| Leon clean sheet | 20% |
| Guadalajara Chivas clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Leon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Cruz Azul · Liga MX | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Toluca · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Tigres UANL · Liga MX | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Club America · Liga MX | 3-5 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Puebla · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
Guadalajara Chivas
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Atlante FC · Liga MX | 4-2 | W |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Monterrey · Liga MX | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Necaxa · Liga MX | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Tigres UANL · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlas · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 9 | 22 | 15 |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 29 | 15 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas 5-0 Leon | Liga MX |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Leon 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Leon 2-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 Leon | Liga MX |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Guadalajara Chivas 1-2 Leon | Liga MX |
Out and doubtful
Leon
No absences reported.
Guadalajara Chivas
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Leon
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Guerra5/5
- I. Moreno5/5
- D. Arcila4/5
- J. Guevara4/5
- J. Romana4/5
- F. Beltran Cruz3/5
- I. Diaz3/5
- O. Garcia3/5
- R. Echeverria3/5
- A. Alvarado2/5
- D. Cambindo2/5
Guadalajara Chivas
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Aguirre5/5
- R. Alvarado5/5
- D. Campillo Del Campo4/5
- F. Gonzalez4/5
- L. Rey4/5
- R. Ledezma4/5
- R. Rangel4/5
- L. Calderon3/5
- R. Marin3/5
- A. Sepulveda2/5
- B. Gutierrez2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Atletico San Luis 0-1 FC JuarezNov 7, 2026
- Necaxa 1-0 Club TijuanaNov 7, 2026
- Atlante FC 0-2 Santos LagunaNov 7, 2026
- Atlas 1-4 CF PachucaNov 7, 2026
- Toluca 4-0 MonterreyNov 8, 2026
- Tigres UANL 2-3 Cruz AzulNov 8, 2026
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-2 Club AmericaNov 8, 2026
- Club Queretaro 0-2 PueblaNov 9, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Leon a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Guadalajara Chivas 36%. Leon are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
1-1 (9.9%), followed by 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.9%), 2-2 (6.9%) and 1-0 (6.2%).
Will both teams score in Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
The probability that both Leon and Guadalajara Chivas score is 66%. Leon have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Guadalajara Chivas 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
The model expects 3.34 goals (1.74 for Leon, 1.60 for Guadalajara Chivas). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 65%, over 3.5 goals 43%.
When and where is Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas played?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 02:10 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio León, Leon.
What form are Leon and Guadalajara Chivas in?
Leon: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded). Guadalajara Chivas: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Leon and Guadalajara Chivas?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Leon, 2 for Guadalajara Chivas and 0 draws. The most recent ended Guadalajara Chivas 5-0 Leon (Mar 19, 2026).
What was the Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Leon 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Leon (41%), while a draw was rated at only 23%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (66%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): missed.
How is the Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.74 for Leon, 1.60 for Guadalajara Chivas) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Leon predictions
- All Guadalajara Chivas predictions
- Liga MX predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology