Liga MX· Kick-off : Sunday, November 8, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)
Toluca vs Monterrey: 4-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Toluca 4-0 Monterrey. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Toluca was the model's favourite outcome (53%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (68%): correct.
Match analysis
Toluca vs Monterrey was played on Sunday, November 8, 2026 (Liga MX). Venue: Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca. Before kick-off, our model gave Toluca a 53% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Monterrey 26%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.3%), ahead of 1-1 (8.8%) and 2-2 (6.6%).
Toluca have not won any of their last 5 matches (4 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Monterrey have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Monterrey. On average Toluca score 1.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Monterrey score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Toluca sit 6th with 24 points from 15 games, Monterrey 9th with 21 points from 14. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Toluca have averaged 1.89 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.58 for Monterrey.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Toluca, 2 for Monterrey and 0 draws. The most recent ended Monterrey 2-1 Toluca (Oct 4, 2026). In double chance terms, "Toluca or draw" stands at 74%, "Monterrey or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Toluca are favourites for this Toluca v Monterrey, with a 53% win probability from our model. On recent form, Toluca have 0 win, 4 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Monterrey have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Toluca – Monterrey. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Toluca 2-1 Monterrey | 9.3% |
| Toluca 1-1 Monterrey | 8.8% |
| Toluca 2-2 Monterrey | 6.6% |
| Toluca 2-0 Monterrey | 6.5% |
| Toluca 3-1 Monterrey | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.52 goals in total (2.10 for Toluca, 1.42 for Monterrey): over 2.5 goals has a 68% probability and both teams to score 67%. Everything points to an open game. Toluca keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Monterrey in 12%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Toluca expected goals | 2.10 |
| Monterrey expected goals | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% |
| Toluca clean sheet | 24% |
| Monterrey clean sheet | 12% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Toluca
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Club America · Liga MX | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Leon · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Club Tijuana · Liga MX | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Atletico San Luis · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Tigres UANL · Liga MX | 2-3 | L |
Monterrey
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Club Tijuana · Liga MX | 3-3 | D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Puebla · Liga MX | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 19, 2026 | CF Pachuca · Liga MX | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Club America · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 6 | 24 | 15 |
| Monterrey | 9 | 21 | 14 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Monterrey 2-1 Toluca | Club Friendlies |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Toluca 2-0 Monterrey | Leagues Cup |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Monterrey 0-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Toluca 3-2 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Monterrey 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
Out and doubtful
Toluca
No absences reported.
Monterrey
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Toluca
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Pereira5/5
- F. Romero5/5
- Helinho5/5
- J. Gallardo5/5
- A. Vega3/5
- E. Gutierrez3/5
- N. Castro3/5
- Paulinho3/5
- Bruno Mendez2/5
- E. del Villar2/5
- F. Vinas2/5
Monterrey
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Rossi5/5
- E. Andrada5/5
- G. Arteaga5/5
- H. Cuypers5/5
- C. Garza4/5
- C. Salcedo4/5
- J. Corona4/5
- L. Ocampos4/5
- O. Pineda4/5
- R. Chavez4/5
- V. Guzman4/5
Other matches in this competition
- Atletico San Luis 0-1 FC JuarezNov 7, 2026
- Necaxa 1-0 Club TijuanaNov 7, 2026
- Atlante FC 0-2 Santos LagunaNov 7, 2026
- Atlas 1-4 CF PachucaNov 7, 2026
- Tigres UANL 2-3 Cruz AzulNov 8, 2026
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-2 Club AmericaNov 8, 2026
- Club Queretaro 0-2 PueblaNov 9, 2026
- Leon 1-1 Guadalajara ChivasNov 9, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Toluca vs Monterrey prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Toluca a 53% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Monterrey 26%. Toluca are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Toluca vs Monterrey?
2-1 (9.3%), followed by 1-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.6%), 2-0 (6.5%) and 3-1 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Monterrey?
The probability that both Toluca and Monterrey score is 67%. Toluca have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Monterrey 12%.
How many goals should we expect in Toluca vs Monterrey?
The model expects 3.52 goals (2.10 for Toluca, 1.42 for Monterrey). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 68%, over 3.5 goals 47%.
When and where is Toluca vs Monterrey played?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca.
What form are Toluca and Monterrey in?
Toluca: 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded). Monterrey: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Toluca and Monterrey?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Toluca, 2 for Monterrey and 0 draws. The most recent ended Monterrey 2-1 Toluca (Oct 4, 2026).
What was the Toluca vs Monterrey result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Toluca 4-0 Monterrey. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Toluca was the model's favourite outcome (53%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (68%): correct.
How is the Toluca vs Monterrey prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.10 for Toluca, 1.42 for Monterrey) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Toluca predictions
- All Monterrey predictions
- Liga MX predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology