Liga MX· Kick-off : Sunday, November 8, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)
Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Tigres UANL 2-3 Cruz Azul. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Cruz Azul at 80%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (71%): correct.
Match analysis
Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul met on Sunday, November 8, 2026, a Liga MX fixture. Venue: Estadio Universitario, Monterey. Before kick-off, our model gave Tigres UANL a 7% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Cruz Azul 80%. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (10.5%), followed by 0-3 (10.0%) and 1-2 (8.4%).
Tigres UANL have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 9. Cruz Azul are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 15 and conceding 6. Cruz Azul therefore arrive in far better shape than Tigres UANL. On average Tigres UANL score 1.00 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Cruz Azul score 3.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Tigres UANL sit 15th with 15 points from 15 games, Cruz Azul 3rd with 29 points from 15. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Tigres UANL have averaged 1.07 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.14 for Cruz Azul.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Tigres UANL, 2 for Cruz Azul and 3 draws. The most recent ended Cruz Azul 2-1 Tigres UANL (Feb 15, 2026). In double chance terms, "Tigres UANL or draw" stands at 20%, "Cruz Azul or draw" at 93% and "no draw" at 87%.
In short : Cruz Azul are favourites for this Tigres UANL v Cruz Azul, with a 80% win probability from our model. In the table, Tigres UANL (15th, 15 pts) host Cruz Azul (3rd, 29 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Tigres UANL – Cruz Azul. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (10.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tigres UANL 0-2 Cruz Azul | 10.5% |
| Tigres UANL 0-3 Cruz Azul | 10.0% |
| Tigres UANL 1-2 Cruz Azul | 8.4% |
| Tigres UANL 1-3 Cruz Azul | 8.0% |
| Tigres UANL 0-1 Cruz Azul | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.80 expected goals for Tigres UANL and 2.87 for Cruz Azul, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 71% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Goals look likely in this one. Tigres UANL keep a clean sheet in 6% of scenarios, Cruz Azul in 45%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Tigres UANL expected goals | 0.80 |
| Cruz Azul expected goals | 2.87 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% |
| Tigres UANL clean sheet | 6% |
| Cruz Azul clean sheet | 45% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Tigres UANL
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | CF Pachuca · Liga MX | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 25, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Leon · Liga MX | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Toluca · Liga MX | 3-2 | W |
Cruz Azul
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Leon · Liga MX | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Club Queretaro · Liga MX | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 22, 2026 | CF Pachuca · Liga MX | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | FC Juarez · Liga MX | 5-0 | W |
| Oct 12, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX | 3-3 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Cruz Azul | 3 | 29 | 15 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Cruz Azul 2-1 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Tigres UANL 1-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Cruz Azul 1-1 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Tigres UANL 1-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| May 2, 2025 | Cruz Azul 1-0 Tigres UANL | CONCACAF Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Tigres UANL
No absences reported.
Cruz Azul
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Tigres UANL
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Franco5/5
- D. Lainez5/5
- R. Guerrero5/5
- F. Gorriaran4/5
- J. Brunetta4/5
- M. Lainez4/5
- N. Guzman4/5
- C. Araujo3/5
- J. Garza3/5
- D. A. Sanchez Guevara2/5
- E. Gomez2/5
Cruz Azul
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Palavecino5/5
- O. Campos5/5
- E. Lira4/5
- G. Piovi4/5
- A. Garcia3/5
- A. Gudino3/5
- C. Rodriguez3/5
- J. Orozco3/5
- N. Ibanez3/5
- A. Montano2/5
- A. Montes2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Atletico San Luis 0-1 FC JuarezNov 7, 2026
- Necaxa 1-0 Club TijuanaNov 7, 2026
- Atlante FC 0-2 Santos LagunaNov 7, 2026
- Atlas 1-4 CF PachucaNov 7, 2026
- Toluca 4-0 MonterreyNov 8, 2026
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-2 Club AmericaNov 8, 2026
- Club Queretaro 0-2 PueblaNov 9, 2026
- Leon 1-1 Guadalajara ChivasNov 9, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Tigres UANL a 7% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Cruz Azul 80%. Cruz Azul are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?
0-2 (10.5%), followed by 0-3 (10.0%), 1-2 (8.4%), 1-3 (8.0%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?
The probability that both Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul score is 52%. Tigres UANL have a 6% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cruz Azul 45%.
How many goals should we expect in Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?
The model expects 3.67 goals (0.80 for Tigres UANL, 2.87 for Cruz Azul). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 88%, over 2.5 goals 71%, over 3.5 goals 50%.
When and where is Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul played?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Universitario, Monterey.
What form are Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul in?
Tigres UANL: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 9 conceded). Cruz Azul: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Tigres UANL, 2 for Cruz Azul and 3 draws. The most recent ended Cruz Azul 2-1 Tigres UANL (Feb 15, 2026).
What was the Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Tigres UANL 2-3 Cruz Azul. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Cruz Azul at 80%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (71%): correct.
How is the Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.80 for Tigres UANL, 2.87 for Cruz Azul) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Tigres UANL predictions
- All Cruz Azul predictions
- Liga MX predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology