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Liga MXLiga MX· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)

Necaxa vs Atlas: 0-2 result and AI prediction review

NecaxaNecaxa0 – 2AtlasAtlas

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Necaxa 0-2 Atlas. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Atlas at 41%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (7.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

Match analysis

Necaxa and Atlas met on Saturday, October 17, 2026, a Liga MX fixture. Venue: Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes. Before kick-off, our model gave Necaxa a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atlas 41%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.4%) and 1-0 (9.0%).

Necaxa have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 12. Atlas have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 8 and conceding 10. Atlas therefore arrive in far better shape than Necaxa. On average Necaxa score 1.40 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Atlas score 1.60 and concede 2.00. In the table, Necaxa sit 17th with 9 points from 11 games, Atlas 6th with 18 points from 11. 11 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Necaxa have averaged 3.25 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.74 for Atlas.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Necaxa, 3 for Atlas and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atlas 0-0 Necaxa (Jul 4, 2026). In double chance terms, "Necaxa or draw" stands at 59%, "Atlas or draw" at 68% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Our model backs Atlas to edge Necaxa (41% probability). In the table, Necaxa (17th, 9 pts) host Atlas (6th, 18 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 53%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

32%
Necaxa (Win)
26%
Draw
41%
Atlas (Win)

Double chance

59%
Necaxa or draw
68%
Atlas or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Necaxa – Atlas. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Necaxa 1-1 Atlas12.5%
Necaxa 0-1 Atlas10.4%
Necaxa 1-0 Atlas9.0%
Necaxa 1-2 Atlas8.7%
Necaxa 2-1 Atlas7.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.20 expected goals for Necaxa and 1.39 for Atlas, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Necaxa keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Atlas in 30%.

Probability
Necaxa expected goals1.20
Atlas expected goals1.39
Both teams to score53%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Necaxa clean sheet25%
Atlas clean sheet30%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Necaxa

DateOpponentScore
Oct 12, 2026CF Pachuca · Liga MX3-3D
Sep 28, 2026Club America · Liga MX2-4L
Sep 20, 2026Atletico San Luis · Liga MX1-3L
Sep 12, 2026Puebla · Liga MX0-1L
Sep 6, 2026Tigres UANL · Liga MX1-1D

Atlas

DateOpponentScore
Oct 11, 2026Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX1-1D
Sep 26, 2026Club Tijuana · Liga MX3-2W
Sep 20, 2026U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX1-1D
Sep 13, 2026Toluca · Liga MX2-5L
Sep 6, 2026Atlante FC · Liga MX1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Necaxa17911
Atlas61811

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 4, 2026Atlas 0-0 NecaxaClub Friendlies
Jan 17, 2026Necaxa 0-1 AtlasLiga MX
Dec 30, 2025Atlas 5-3 NecaxaClub Friendlies
Sep 28, 2025Atlas 3-2 NecaxaLiga MX
Feb 19, 2025Atlas 0-4 NecaxaLiga MX

Out and doubtful

Necaxa

No absences reported.

Atlas

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Necaxa

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Carranza5/5
  • P. Pedraza5/5
  • A. Oliveros4/5
  • L. Jimenez4/5
  • M. Espindola4/5
  • Naves4/5
  • O. Gonzalez4/5
  • R. Martinez4/5
  • J. Ruiz3/5
  • L. Faravelli3/5
  • C. Vargas2/5

Atlas

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Sanchez7/5
  • C. Vargas5/5
  • F. Monzon5/5
  • L. Esteves5/5
  • P. Ramirez4/5
  • A. Frias3/5
  • E. Montiel3/5
  • M. Capasso3/5
  • M. Valenzuela3/5
  • R. Mmaee3/5
  • A. Gonzalez2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Necaxa vs Atlas prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Necaxa a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atlas 41%. Atlas are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Necaxa vs Atlas?

1-1 (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.7%) and 2-1 (7.5%).

Will both teams score in Necaxa vs Atlas?

The probability that both Necaxa and Atlas score is 53%. Necaxa have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atlas 30%.

How many goals should we expect in Necaxa vs Atlas?

The model expects 2.59 goals (1.20 for Necaxa, 1.39 for Atlas). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.

When and where is Necaxa vs Atlas played?

Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes.

What form are Necaxa and Atlas in?

Necaxa: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 12 conceded). Atlas: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 10 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Necaxa and Atlas?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Necaxa, 3 for Atlas and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atlas 0-0 Necaxa (Jul 4, 2026).

What was the Necaxa vs Atlas result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Necaxa 0-2 Atlas. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Atlas at 41%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (7.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

How is the Necaxa vs Atlas prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.20 for Necaxa, 1.39 for Atlas) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained