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Ecuadorian Liga ProEcuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Sunday, November 8, 2026, 18:45 (UK time)

Aucas vs Independiente del Valle: 2-4 result and AI prediction review

AucasAucas2 – 4Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: Aucas 2-4 Independiente del Valle. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Independiente del Valle at 60%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): missed.

Match analysis

Aucas and Independiente del Valle met on Sunday, November 8, 2026, a Ecuadorian Liga Pro fixture. Venue: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito. Before kick-off, our model gave Aucas a 16% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Independiente del Valle 60%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (15.8%), followed by 0-2 (13.0%) and 1-1 (11.1%).

Aucas have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Independiente del Valle have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 1. Independiente del Valle therefore arrive in far better shape than Aucas. On average Aucas score 1.00 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Independiente del Valle score 1.40 and concede 0.20. In the table, Aucas sit 3rd with 54 points from 35 games, Independiente del Valle 1st with 81 points from 34. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Aucas have averaged 0.82 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.39 for Independiente del Valle.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Aucas, 4 for Independiente del Valle and 1 draw. The most recent ended Aucas 0-3 Independiente del Valle (Jul 16, 2026). In double chance terms, "Aucas or draw" stands at 40%, "Independiente del Valle or draw" at 84% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : Independiente del Valle are favourites for this Aucas v Independiente del Valle, with a 60% win probability from our model. On recent form, Aucas have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Independiente del Valle have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

16%
Aucas (Win)
24%
Draw
60%
Independiente del Valle (Win)

Double chance

40%
Aucas or draw
84%
Independiente del Valle or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Aucas – Independiente del Valle. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (15.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Aucas 0-1 Independiente del Valle15.8%
Aucas 0-2 Independiente del Valle13.0%
Aucas 1-1 Independiente del Valle11.1%
Aucas 0-0 Independiente del Valle9.6%
Aucas 1-2 Independiente del Valle9.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.70 expected goals for Aucas and 1.64 for Independiente del Valle, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 42% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Few goals are expected here. Aucas keep a clean sheet in 19% of scenarios, Independiente del Valle in 50%.

Probability
Aucas expected goals0.70
Independiente del Valle expected goals1.64
Both teams to score41%
Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Over 3.5 goals21%
Aucas clean sheet19%
Independiente del Valle clean sheet50%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Aucas

DateOpponentScore
Nov 1, 2026Universidad Catolica · Ecuadorian Liga Pro2-1W
Oct 25, 2026Barcelona SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-4L
Oct 17, 2026LDU de Quito · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-1D
Oct 10, 2026Independiente del Valle · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-2L
Sep 19, 2026Macara · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-2L

Independiente del Valle

DateOpponentScore
Nov 6, 2026Delfin SC · Copa Ecuador2-0W
Nov 1, 2026LDU de Quito · Ecuadorian Liga Pro2-0W
Oct 29, 2026Delfin SC · Copa Ecuador3-0W
Oct 23, 2026Universidad Catolica · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-0D
Oct 17, 2026Macara · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Aucas35435
Independiente del Valle18134

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 16, 2026Aucas 0-3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
Mar 14, 2026Independiente del Valle 2-2 AucasLiga Pro
Jul 19, 2025Independiente del Valle 2-1 AucasLiga Pro
Mar 28, 2025Aucas 1-2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
Sep 1, 2024Aucas 0-2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro

Out and doubtful

Aucas

No absences reported.

Independiente del Valle

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Aucas

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Zova5/5
  • A. Preciado4/5
  • A. Spina4/5
  • Andrés David Mena Montenegro4/5
  • Hamilton Emanuel Piedra Ordóñez4/5
  • P. Guzmán4/5
  • S. Morales4/5
  • B. Carabalí3/5
  • M. Burdisso3/5
  • R. Quiñónez3/5
  • L. Gustavino2/5

Independiente del Valle

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Quintana2/4
  • Aldair Quintana2/4
  • J. Sornoza2/4
  • M. Carabajal2/4
  • Mateo Carabajal2/4
  • Matías Perello2/4
  • R. Schunke2/4
  • C. Gonzalez1/4
  • C. González1/4
  • Carlos González1/4
  • D. A. Romero Padilla1/4

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Aucas vs Independiente del Valle prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Aucas a 16% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Independiente del Valle 60%. Independiente del Valle are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-4.

What is the most likely correct score for Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?

0-1 (15.8%), followed by 0-2 (13.0%), 1-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (9.6%) and 1-2 (9.1%).

Will both teams score in Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?

The probability that both Aucas and Independiente del Valle score is 41%. Aucas have a 19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Independiente del Valle 50%.

How many goals should we expect in Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?

The model expects 2.34 goals (0.70 for Aucas, 1.64 for Independiente del Valle). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.

When and where is Aucas vs Independiente del Valle played?

Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 18:45 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito.

What form are Aucas and Independiente del Valle in?

Aucas: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 10 conceded). Independiente del Valle: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 1 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Aucas and Independiente del Valle?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Aucas, 4 for Independiente del Valle and 1 draw. The most recent ended Aucas 0-3 Independiente del Valle (Jul 16, 2026).

What was the Aucas vs Independiente del Valle result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Aucas 2-4 Independiente del Valle. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Independiente del Valle at 60%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): missed.

How is the Aucas vs Independiente del Valle prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.70 for Aucas, 1.64 for Independiente del Valle) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained