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Ecuadorian Liga ProEcuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 21:30 (UK time)

Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

Leones del NorteLeones del Norte1 – 1Guayaquil City FCGuayaquil City FC

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Leones del Norte 1-1 Guayaquil City FC. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Leones del Norte (41%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): correct.

Match analysis

Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC met on Saturday, November 7, 2026, a Ecuadorian Liga Pro fixture. Venue: Jaime Teran Olympic Stadium, Atuntaqui. Before kick-off, our model gave Leones del Norte a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Guayaquil City FC 32%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (10.8%) and 0-1 (9.3%).

Over their last 5 matches, Leones del Norte have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Guayaquil City FC have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Leones del Norte score 1.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Guayaquil City FC score 1.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Leones del Norte sit 9th with 46 points from 35 games, Guayaquil City FC 8th with 47 points from 35. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Leones del Norte have averaged 1.24 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.28 for Guayaquil City FC.

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Leones del Norte, 0 for Guayaquil City FC and 3 draws. The most recent ended Guayaquil City FC 1-1 Leones del Norte (Sep 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "Leones del Norte or draw" stands at 68%, "Guayaquil City FC or draw" at 59% and "no draw" at 73%.

In short : Leones del Norte are tipped by our AI model in this Leones del Norte v Guayaquil City FC (41%). On recent form, Leones del Norte have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Guayaquil City FC have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

41%
Leones del Norte (Win)
27%
Draw
32%
Guayaquil City FC (Win)

Double chance

68%
Leones del Norte or draw
59%
Guayaquil City FC or draw
73%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Leones del Norte – Guayaquil City FC. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Leones del Norte 1-1 Guayaquil City FC12.7%
Leones del Norte 1-0 Guayaquil City FC10.8%
Leones del Norte 0-1 Guayaquil City FC9.3%
Leones del Norte 2-1 Guayaquil City FC8.6%
Leones del Norte 0-0 Guayaquil City FC8.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.36 expected goals for Leones del Norte and 1.17 for Guayaquil City FC, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 46% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Leones del Norte keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Guayaquil City FC in 26%.

Probability
Leones del Norte expected goals1.36
Guayaquil City FC expected goals1.17
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Leones del Norte clean sheet31%
Guayaquil City FC clean sheet26%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Leones del Norte

DateOpponentScore
Oct 31, 2026Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro2-0W
Oct 25, 2026Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro4-1W
Oct 18, 2026Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-3L
Oct 9, 2026Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-3L
Sep 19, 2026Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-1D

Guayaquil City FC

DateOpponentScore
Nov 1, 2026Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-0D
Oct 25, 2026Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-0W
Oct 17, 2026Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-4L
Oct 10, 2026Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro3-2W
Sep 19, 2026Leones del Norte · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Leones del Norte94635
Guayaquil City FC84735

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 19, 2026Guayaquil City FC 1-1 Leones del NorteEcuadorian Liga Pro
Jul 23, 2026Leones del Norte 1-1 Guayaquil City FCEcuadorian Liga Pro
Mar 23, 2026Guayaquil City FC 0-0 Leones del NorteEcuadorian Liga Pro

Out and doubtful

Leones del Norte

No absences reported.

Guayaquil City FC

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Leones del Norte

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Emiliano Griffa5/5
  • C. Solano3/5
  • J. Morán3/5
  • Juan Luis Anangonó León3/5
  • M. Luque3/5
  • N. Monserrat3/5
  • T. Coppo3/5
  • Brian Kreiman2/5
  • Cristhian Solano2/5
  • Juan Anangonó2/5
  • M. Caramuto2/5

Guayaquil City FC

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Arroyo3/5
  • D. Dorregaray3/5
  • E. Ladines3/5
  • E. Mero3/5
  • J. Ayovi3/5
  • P. González3/5
  • R. Arias3/5
  • Y. Rodríguez3/5
  • Diego Dorregaray2/5
  • Dixon Arroyo2/5
  • Edinson Mero2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Leones del Norte a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Guayaquil City FC 32%. Leones del Norte are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC?

1-1 (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.3%), 2-1 (8.6%) and 0-0 (8.0%).

Will both teams score in Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC?

The probability that both Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC score is 51%. Leones del Norte have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Guayaquil City FC 26%.

How many goals should we expect in Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC?

The model expects 2.53 goals (1.36 for Leones del Norte, 1.17 for Guayaquil City FC). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.

When and where is Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC played?

Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 21:30 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Jaime Teran Olympic Stadium, Atuntaqui.

What form are Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC in?

Leones del Norte: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded). Guayaquil City FC: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC?

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Leones del Norte, 0 for Guayaquil City FC and 3 draws. The most recent ended Guayaquil City FC 1-1 Leones del Norte (Sep 19, 2026).

What was the Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Leones del Norte 1-1 Guayaquil City FC. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Leones del Norte (41%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): correct.

How is the Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.36 for Leones del Norte, 1.17 for Guayaquil City FC) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained