Ecuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Libertad vs Emelec: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Libertad 0-1 Emelec. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Libertad (62%), while victory for Emelec was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.1%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): missed.
Match analysis
Libertad vs Emelec was played on Saturday, November 7, 2026 (Ecuadorian Liga Pro). Venue: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja. Before kick-off, our model gave Libertad a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Emelec 18%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.8%), ahead of 2-0 (8.9%) and 1-1 (8.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Libertad have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Emelec have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Libertad. On average Libertad score 2.00 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Emelec score 1.20 and concede 1.80. In the table, Libertad sit 7th with 51 points from 35 games, Emelec 10th with 42 points from 35. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Libertad have averaged 1.66 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.46 for Emelec.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Libertad, 0 for Emelec and 2 draws. The most recent ended Emelec 1-2 Libertad (Sep 20, 2026). In double chance terms, "Libertad or draw" stands at 82%, "Emelec or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Our model backs Libertad to edge Emelec (62% probability). In the table, Libertad (7th, 51 pts) host Emelec (10th, 42 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 64%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Libertad – Emelec. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Libertad 2-1 Emelec | 9.8% |
| Libertad 2-0 Emelec | 8.9% |
| Libertad 1-1 Emelec | 8.9% |
| Libertad 1-0 Emelec | 8.1% |
| Libertad 3-1 Emelec | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.30 goals in total (2.20 for Libertad, 1.10 for Emelec): over 2.5 goals has a 64% probability and both teams to score 59%. Everything points to an open game. Libertad keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, Emelec in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Libertad expected goals | 2.20 |
| Emelec expected goals | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% |
| Libertad clean sheet | 33% |
| Emelec clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Libertad
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Leones del Norte · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Leones del Norte · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
Emelec
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Leones del Norte · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Leones del Norte · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad | 7 | 51 | 35 |
| Emelec | 10 | 42 | 35 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Emelec 1-2 Libertad | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Libertad 1-1 Emelec | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
| May 10, 2026 | Emelec 1-1 Libertad | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
Out and doubtful
Libertad
No absences reported.
Emelec
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Libertad
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Caicedo5/5
- D. Cabezas5/5
- E. Patta5/5
- G. Cortéz4/5
- J. Bravo4/5
- J. Rodríguez4/5
- O. Quiñónez4/5
- R. Morinigo4/5
- Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín4/5
- X. Pineda4/5
- A. Chére3/5
Emelec
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Reixon Saya4/5
- A. Mina3/5
- O. Herrera3/5
- Angelo Mina2/5
- Aníbal Leguizamón2/5
- E. Segura2/5
- F. León2/5
- Francisco Pizzini2/5
- J. Cevallos2/5
- J. Ruíz2/5
- J. Valverde2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Mushuc Runa SC 2-3 Manta FCNov 3, 2026
- Leones del Norte 1-1 Guayaquil City FCNov 7, 2026
- Macara 2-2 Universidad CatolicaNov 8, 2026
- Deportivo Cuenca 2-0 Orense SCNov 8, 2026
- Aucas 2-4 Independiente del ValleNov 8, 2026
- Barcelona SC 1-1 LDU de QuitoNov 8, 2026
- Mushuc Runa SC 2-1 Delfin SCNov 9, 2026
- Tecnico Universitario – Manta FCNov 9, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Libertad vs Emelec prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Libertad a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Emelec 18%. Libertad are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Libertad vs Emelec?
2-1 (9.8%), followed by 2-0 (8.9%), 1-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.1%) and 3-1 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in Libertad vs Emelec?
The probability that both Libertad and Emelec score is 59%. Libertad have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Emelec 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Libertad vs Emelec?
The model expects 3.30 goals (2.20 for Libertad, 1.10 for Emelec). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 64%, over 3.5 goals 42%.
When and where is Libertad vs Emelec played?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja.
What form are Libertad and Emelec in?
Libertad: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 5 conceded). Emelec: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Libertad and Emelec?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Libertad, 0 for Emelec and 2 draws. The most recent ended Emelec 1-2 Libertad (Sep 20, 2026).
What was the Libertad vs Emelec result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Libertad 0-1 Emelec. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Libertad (62%), while victory for Emelec was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.1%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): missed.
How is the Libertad vs Emelec prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.20 for Libertad, 1.10 for Emelec) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Libertad predictions
- All Emelec predictions
- Ecuadorian Liga Pro predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology