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Ecuadorian Liga ProEcuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Sunday, November 8, 2026, 16:15 (UK time)

Macara vs Universidad Catolica: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

MacaraMacara2 – 2Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Macara 2-2 Universidad Catolica. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Macara (72%), while a draw was rated at only 22%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (20%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (31%): missed.

Match analysis

Macara and Universidad Catolica met on Sunday, November 8, 2026, a Ecuadorian Liga Pro fixture. Venue: Estadio Bellavista, Ambato. Before kick-off, our model gave Macara a 72% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Universidad Catolica 6%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (23.9%), followed by 2-0 (19.8%) and 0-0 (14.4%).

Macara are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 2. Universidad Catolica have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 6 and conceding 6. Macara therefore arrive in far better shape than Universidad Catolica. On average Macara score 1.80 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Universidad Catolica score 1.20 and concede 1.20. In the table, Macara sit 2nd with 66 points from 35 games, Universidad Catolica 4th with 53 points from 35. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Macara have averaged 1.22 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.38 for Universidad Catolica.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Macara, 4 for Universidad Catolica and 1 draw. The most recent ended Macara 1-1 Universidad Catolica (Aug 18, 2026). In double chance terms, "Macara or draw" stands at 94%, "Universidad Catolica or draw" at 28% and "no draw" at 78%.

In short : Our model backs Macara to edge Universidad Catolica (72% probability). On recent form, Macara are in good shape (5 wins in 5) while Universidad Catolica have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

72%
Macara (Win)
22%
Draw
6%
Universidad Catolica (Win)

Double chance

94%
Macara or draw
28%
Universidad Catolica or draw
78%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Macara – Universidad Catolica. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (23.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 76% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Macara 1-0 Universidad Catolica23.9%
Macara 2-0 Universidad Catolica19.8%
Macara 0-0 Universidad Catolica14.4%
Macara 3-0 Universidad Catolica11.0%
Macara 1-1 Universidad Catolica6.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.66 expected goals for Macara and 0.28 for Universidad Catolica, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 31% and "both teams to score" at 20%. Few goals are expected here. Macara keep a clean sheet in 76% of scenarios, Universidad Catolica in 19%.

Probability
Macara expected goals1.66
Universidad Catolica expected goals0.28
Both teams to score20%
Over 1.5 goals58%
Over 2.5 goals31%
Over 3.5 goals13%
Macara clean sheet76%
Universidad Catolica clean sheet19%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Macara

DateOpponentScore
Oct 31, 2026Barcelona SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro3-0W
Oct 24, 2026LDU de Quito · Ecuadorian Liga Pro2-1W
Oct 17, 2026Independiente del Valle · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-0W
Oct 11, 2026Universidad Catolica · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-0W
Sep 19, 2026Aucas · Ecuadorian Liga Pro2-1W

Universidad Catolica

DateOpponentScore
Nov 5, 2026LDU de Quito · Copa Ecuador2-1W
Nov 1, 2026Aucas · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-2L
Oct 30, 2026LDU de Quito · Copa Ecuador2-2D
Oct 23, 2026Independiente del Valle · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-0D
Oct 18, 2026Barcelona SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Macara26635
Universidad Catolica45335

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 18, 2026Macara 1-1 Universidad CatolicaLiga Pro
Apr 24, 2026Universidad Catolica 4-0 MacaraLiga Pro
Jul 27, 2025Macara 1-4 Universidad CatolicaLiga Pro
Apr 6, 2025Universidad Catolica 1-0 MacaraLiga Pro
Nov 30, 2024Macara 1-2 Universidad CatolicaLiga Pro

Out and doubtful

Macara

No absences reported.

Universidad Catolica

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Macara

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • F. Posse4/5
  • J. Cazares4/5
  • J. Marrufo4/5
  • J. Mohor4/5
  • M. Tello4/5
  • M. Viera4/5
  • R. Rodriguez4/5
  • A. Campana3/5
  • J. Bolaños3/5
  • J. Estacio3/5
  • J. Jiménez2/5

Universidad Catolica

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Cacciabue3/5
  • J. Fajardo3/5
  • M. Alonso3/5
  • A. Londono2/5
  • A. Londoño2/5
  • E. Clavijo2/5
  • E. Mejia2/5
  • J. Lara2/5
  • J. Manriquez2/5
  • Jose García2/5
  • L. Cangá2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Macara vs Universidad Catolica prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Macara a 72% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Universidad Catolica 6%. Macara are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Macara vs Universidad Catolica?

1-0 (23.9%), followed by 2-0 (19.8%), 0-0 (14.4%), 3-0 (11.0%) and 1-1 (6.7%).

Will both teams score in Macara vs Universidad Catolica?

The probability that both Macara and Universidad Catolica score is 20%. Macara have a 76% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Universidad Catolica 19%.

How many goals should we expect in Macara vs Universidad Catolica?

The model expects 1.94 goals (1.66 for Macara, 0.28 for Universidad Catolica). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 58%, over 2.5 goals 31%, over 3.5 goals 13%.

When and where is Macara vs Universidad Catolica played?

Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 16:15 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio Bellavista, Ambato.

What form are Macara and Universidad Catolica in?

Macara: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded). Universidad Catolica: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Macara and Universidad Catolica?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Macara, 4 for Universidad Catolica and 1 draw. The most recent ended Macara 1-1 Universidad Catolica (Aug 18, 2026).

What was the Macara vs Universidad Catolica result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Macara 2-2 Universidad Catolica. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Macara (72%), while a draw was rated at only 22%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (20%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (31%): missed.

How is the Macara vs Universidad Catolica prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.66 for Macara, 0.28 for Universidad Catolica) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained