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Argentine Primera DivisiónArgentine Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 01:30 (UK time)

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe: 3-0 result and AI prediction review

Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors3 – 0Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Boca Juniors 3-0 Union Santa Fe. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Boca Juniors was the model's favourite outcome (62%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.

Match analysis

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe was played on Saturday, October 3, 2026 (Argentine Primera División). Venue: Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires. Before kick-off, our model gave Boca Juniors a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Union Santa Fe 16%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.9%), ahead of 2-0 (11.4%) and 1-1 (10.2%).

Boca Juniors are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 10 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Union Santa Fe have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 8. Recent momentum is clearly with Boca Juniors. On average Boca Juniors score 2.00 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Union Santa Fe score 2.40 and concede 1.60. In the table, Boca Juniors sit 5th with 17 points from 10 games, Union Santa Fe 9th with 13 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Boca Juniors, 1 for Union Santa Fe and 3 draws. The most recent ended Union Santa Fe 1-1 Boca Juniors (Mar 16, 2026). In double chance terms, "Boca Juniors or draw" stands at 84%, "Union Santa Fe or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 78%.

In short : Boca Juniors are tipped by our AI model in this Boca Juniors v Union Santa Fe (62%). In the table, Boca Juniors (5th, 17 pts) host Union Santa Fe (9th, 13 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

62%
Boca Juniors (Win)
22%
Draw
16%
Union Santa Fe (Win)

Double chance

84%
Boca Juniors or draw
38%
Union Santa Fe or draw
78%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Boca Juniors – Union Santa Fe. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Boca Juniors 1-0 Union Santa Fe11.9%
Boca Juniors 2-0 Union Santa Fe11.4%
Boca Juniors 1-1 Union Santa Fe10.2%
Boca Juniors 2-1 Union Santa Fe9.8%
Boca Juniors 3-0 Union Santa Fe7.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.79 goals in total (1.93 for Boca Juniors, 0.86 for Union Santa Fe): over 2.5 goals has a 53% probability and both teams to score 49%. Boca Juniors keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Union Santa Fe in 15%.

Probability
Boca Juniors expected goals1.93
Union Santa Fe expected goals0.86
Both teams to score49%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Boca Juniors clean sheet42%
Union Santa Fe clean sheet15%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Boca Juniors

DateOpponentScore
Sep 27, 2026Racing Club · Copa Argentina3-2W
Sep 20, 2026San Lorenzo · Argentine Primera División2-0W
Sep 16, 2026Sao Paulo · CONMEBOL Sudamericana1-1D
Sep 12, 2026Central Cordoba de Santiago · Argentine Primera División3-1W
Sep 9, 2026Sao Paulo · CONMEBOL Sudamericana1-0W

Union Santa Fe

DateOpponentScore
Sep 19, 2026Independiente · Argentine Primera División1-2L
Sep 13, 2026Talleres Cordoba · Argentine Primera División1-2L
Sep 8, 2026Instituto Cordoba · Argentine Primera División3-2W
Aug 28, 2026Sarmiento Junin · Argentine Primera División4-1W
Aug 21, 2026Aldosivi · Argentine Primera División3-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Boca Juniors51710
Union Santa Fe91310

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 16, 2026Union Santa Fe 1-1 Boca JuniorsArgentine Primera División
Jul 18, 2025Boca Juniors 1-1 Union Santa FeArgentine Primera División
Jan 29, 2025Union Santa Fe 1-1 Boca JuniorsArgentine Primera División
Nov 21, 2024Boca Juniors 1-0 Union Santa FeArgentine Primera División
Mar 6, 2024Union Santa Fe 1-0 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional

Out and doubtful

Boca Juniors

No absences reported.

Union Santa Fe

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Boca Juniors

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • L. Blanco5/5
  • A. Velasco4/5
  • F. Herrera4/5
  • L. Di Lollo4/5
  • L. Flores4/5
  • L. Lozano4/5
  • L. Paredes4/5
  • M. Delgado3/5
  • Miguel Merentiel3/5
  • S. Ascacibar3/5
  • A. Montero2/5

Union Santa Fe

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Luduena5/5
  • J. Pintado5/5
  • L. Ayala5/5
  • L. Menossi5/5
  • M. Estigarribia5/5
  • M. Mansilla5/5
  • B. Cuello4/5
  • C. Tarragona4/5
  • E. Giaccone4/5
  • J. Palacios3/5
  • I. Malcorra2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Boca Juniors a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Union Santa Fe 16%. Boca Juniors are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?

1-0 (11.9%), followed by 2-0 (11.4%), 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (7.4%).

Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?

The probability that both Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe score is 49%. Boca Juniors have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Union Santa Fe 15%.

How many goals should we expect in Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?

The model expects 2.79 goals (1.93 for Boca Juniors, 0.86 for Union Santa Fe). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 31%.

When and where is Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe played?

Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time), Argentine Primera División. Venue: Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires.

What form are Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe in?

Boca Juniors: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 4 conceded). Union Santa Fe: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Boca Juniors, 1 for Union Santa Fe and 3 draws. The most recent ended Union Santa Fe 1-1 Boca Juniors (Mar 16, 2026).

What was the Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Boca Juniors 3-0 Union Santa Fe. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Boca Juniors was the model's favourite outcome (62%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.

How is the Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.93 for Boca Juniors, 0.86 for Union Santa Fe) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained