Argentine Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 01:30 (UK time)
Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Independ. Rivadavia take on Gimnasia L.P. on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time), a Argentine Primera División fixture. Venue: Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini, Mendoza. Independ. Rivadavia start as favourites with a 53% chance of victory; Gimnasia L.P. are given 23% and the draw 24%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Independ. Rivadavia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Gimnasia L.P. have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Independ. Rivadavia score 2.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Gimnasia L.P. score 1.60 and concede 1.40. In the table, Independ. Rivadavia sit 3rd with 17 points from 10 games, Gimnasia L.P. 4th with 17 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Independ. Rivadavia, 0 for Gimnasia L.P. and 0 draws. The most recent ended Gimnasia L.P. 2-3 Independ. Rivadavia (Mar 15, 2026). In double chance terms, "Independ. Rivadavia or draw" stands at 77%, "Gimnasia L.P. or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Independ. Rivadavia are favourites for this Independ. Rivadavia v Gimnasia L.P., with a 53% win probability from our model. On recent form, Independ. Rivadavia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Gimnasia L.P. have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Independ. Rivadavia – Gimnasia L.P.. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Independ. Rivadavia 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. | 11.6% |
| Independ. Rivadavia 1-0 Gimnasia L.P. | 11.5% |
| Independ. Rivadavia 2-1 Gimnasia L.P. | 9.6% |
| Independ. Rivadavia 2-0 Gimnasia L.P. | 9.5% |
| Independ. Rivadavia 0-1 Gimnasia L.P. | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.66 expected goals for Independ. Rivadavia and 1.01 for Gimnasia L.P., "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Independ. Rivadavia keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Gimnasia L.P. in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Independ. Rivadavia expected goals | 1.66 |
| Gimnasia L.P. expected goals | 1.01 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Independ. Rivadavia clean sheet | 36% |
| Gimnasia L.P. clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Independ. Rivadavia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman · Copa Argentina | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aldosivi · Argentine Primera División | 4-3 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | River Plate · Argentine Primera División | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Racing Club · Argentine Primera División | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Aldosivi · Copa Argentina | 2-0 | W |
Gimnasia L.P.
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Argentinos JRS · Argentine Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Tigre · Argentine Primera División | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Rosario Central · Argentine Primera División | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnasia M. · Argentine Primera División | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra · Copa Argentina | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independ. Rivadavia | 3 | 17 | 10 |
| Gimnasia L.P. | 4 | 17 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P. 2-3 Independ. Rivadavia | Argentine Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Independ. Rivadavia
No absences reported.
Gimnasia L.P.
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Independ. Rivadavia
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Arce4/4
- G. Rios4/4
- J. I. Florentin Bobadilla4/4
- L. Costa4/4
- N. Bolcato4/4
- T. Bottari4/4
- I. Villalba3/4
- M. Fernandez3/4
- M. Salas3/4
- F. Sartori2/4
- J. M. Elordi2/4
Gimnasia L.P.
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Auzmendi5/5
- E. Martinez5/5
- I. Miramon5/5
- N. Fernandez5/5
- P. Silva Torrejon5/5
- B. Barros Schelotto4/5
- German Conti4/5
- M. Seoane4/5
- N. Insfran4/5
- L. Janson3/5
- M. Zalazar3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Defensa Y Justicia – San LorenzoOct 3, 2026
- Newells Old Boys – LanusOct 3, 2026
- Atletico Tucuman – Barracas CentralOct 3, 2026
- Argentinos JRS – TigreOct 3, 2026
- Huracan – AldosiviOct 4, 2026
- Sarmiento Junin – River PlateOct 4, 2026
- Talleres Cordoba – Belgrano CordobaOct 4, 2026
- Boca Juniors – Union Santa FeOct 4, 2026
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto – Racing ClubOct 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. prediction?
Our AI gives Independ. Rivadavia a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Gimnasia L.P. 23%. Independ. Rivadavia are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P.?
1-1 (11.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.5%) and 0-1 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P.?
The probability that both Independ. Rivadavia and Gimnasia L.P. score is 52%. Independ. Rivadavia have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Gimnasia L.P. 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P.?
The model expects 2.67 goals (1.66 for Independ. Rivadavia, 1.01 for Gimnasia L.P.). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time), Argentine Primera División. Venue: Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini, Mendoza.
What form are Independ. Rivadavia and Gimnasia L.P. in?
Independ. Rivadavia: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 8 conceded). Gimnasia L.P.: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Independ. Rivadavia and Gimnasia L.P.?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Independ. Rivadavia, 0 for Gimnasia L.P. and 0 draws. The most recent ended Gimnasia L.P. 2-3 Independ. Rivadavia (Mar 15, 2026).
How is the Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.66 for Independ. Rivadavia, 1.01 for Gimnasia L.P.) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Independ. Rivadavia predictions
- All Gimnasia L.P. predictions
- Argentine Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology