Argentine Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 18:45 (UK time)
Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Argentine Primera División: the Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo match is scheduled on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 18:45 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa. With a 68% win probability, Defensa Y Justicia go in as strong favourites against San Lorenzo (13%), with the draw rated at 19%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.2%), ahead of 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Defensa Y Justicia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, San Lorenzo have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 3 and conceding 2. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Defensa Y Justicia score 1.20 and concede 0.60 goals per game; San Lorenzo score 0.60 and concede 0.40. In the table, Defensa Y Justicia sit 3rd with 18 points from 10 games, San Lorenzo 10th with 11 points from 10. 7 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Defensa Y Justicia, 0 for San Lorenzo and 0 draws. The most recent ended San Lorenzo 2-5 Defensa Y Justicia (Mar 16, 2026). In double chance terms, "Defensa Y Justicia or draw" stands at 87%, "San Lorenzo or draw" at 32% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Our model backs Defensa Y Justicia to edge San Lorenzo (68% probability). In the table, Defensa Y Justicia (3rd, 18 pts) host San Lorenzo (10th, 11 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 56%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Defensa Y Justicia – San Lorenzo. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Defensa Y Justicia 2-0 San Lorenzo | 12.2% |
| Defensa Y Justicia 1-0 San Lorenzo | 11.5% |
| Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 San Lorenzo | 9.7% |
| Defensa Y Justicia 1-1 San Lorenzo | 9.1% |
| Defensa Y Justicia 3-0 San Lorenzo | 8.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.91 goals in total (2.12 for Defensa Y Justicia, 0.79 for San Lorenzo): over 2.5 goals has a 56% probability and both teams to score 48%. Defensa Y Justicia keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, San Lorenzo in 12%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Defensa Y Justicia expected goals | 2.12 |
| San Lorenzo expected goals | 0.79 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Defensa Y Justicia clean sheet | 45% |
| San Lorenzo clean sheet | 12% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Defensa Y Justicia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Gimnasia M. · Argentine Primera División | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Lanus · Argentine Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Platense · Argentine Primera División | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Belgrano Cordoba · Argentine Primera División | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield · Argentine Primera División | 1-1 | D |
San Lorenzo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Independiente · Argentine Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba · Argentine Primera División | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba · Argentine Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · Argentine Primera División | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Union Santa Fe · Argentine Primera División | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensa Y Justicia | 3 | 18 | 10 |
| San Lorenzo | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | San Lorenzo 2-5 Defensa Y Justicia | Argentine Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Defensa Y Justicia
No absences reported.
San Lorenzo
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Defensa Y Justicia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Perez5/5
- D. Barbona5/5
- D. Fernandez5/5
- D. Martinez5/5
- F. Roman5/5
- J. Gutierrez5/5
- M. Borgogno5/5
- S. Sosa5/5
- L. Fernandez4/5
- V. Loza4/5
- T. Perrotta3/5
San Lorenzo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Cuello5/5
- D. Arboleda5/5
- E. Amor5/5
- I. Perruzzi5/5
- J. Devecchi5/5
- N. Tripichio5/5
- R. Auzmendi5/5
- T. Rodriguez Pagano4/5
- E. Herrera3/5
- J. Alvarez3/5
- M. Reali3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Independiente – Instituto CordobaOct 2, 2026
- Independ. Rivadavia – Gimnasia L.P.Oct 3, 2026
- Newells Old Boys – LanusOct 3, 2026
- Atletico Tucuman – Barracas CentralOct 3, 2026
- Argentinos JRS – TigreOct 3, 2026
- Huracan – AldosiviOct 4, 2026
- Sarmiento Junin – River PlateOct 4, 2026
- Talleres Cordoba – Belgrano CordobaOct 4, 2026
- Boca Juniors – Union Santa FeOct 4, 2026
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto – Racing ClubOct 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo prediction?
Our AI gives Defensa Y Justicia a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and San Lorenzo 13%. Defensa Y Justicia are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?
2-0 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.1%) and 3-0 (8.7%).
Will both teams score in Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?
The probability that both Defensa Y Justicia and San Lorenzo score is 48%. Defensa Y Justicia have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, San Lorenzo 12%.
How many goals should we expect in Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?
The model expects 2.91 goals (2.12 for Defensa Y Justicia, 0.79 for San Lorenzo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 33%.
When and where is Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 18:45 (UK time), Argentine Primera División. Venue: Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa.
What form are Defensa Y Justicia and San Lorenzo in?
Defensa Y Justicia: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 3 conceded). San Lorenzo: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Defensa Y Justicia and San Lorenzo?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Defensa Y Justicia, 0 for San Lorenzo and 0 draws. The most recent ended San Lorenzo 2-5 Defensa Y Justicia (Mar 16, 2026).
How is the Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.12 for Defensa Y Justicia, 0.79 for San Lorenzo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Defensa Y Justicia predictions
- All San Lorenzo predictions
- Argentine Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology