Argentine Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 23:15 (UK time)
Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Argentine Primera División: Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe kicks off on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 23:15 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires. Our model makes Boca Juniors clear favourites: a 60% chance of winning, against 22% for the draw and 18% for Union Santa Fe. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (10.9%) and 1-1 (10.6%).
Boca Juniors are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Union Santa Fe have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Boca Juniors score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Union Santa Fe score 2.20 and concede 1.40. In the table, Boca Juniors sit 5th with 17 points from 10 games, Union Santa Fe 9th with 13 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Boca Juniors, 0 for Union Santa Fe and 1 draw. The most recent ended Union Santa Fe 1-1 Boca Juniors (Mar 16, 2026). In double chance terms, "Boca Juniors or draw" stands at 82%, "Union Santa Fe or draw" at 40% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Our model backs Boca Juniors to edge Union Santa Fe (60% probability). In the table, Boca Juniors (5th, 17 pts) host Union Santa Fe (9th, 13 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 50%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Boca Juniors – Union Santa Fe. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Boca Juniors 1-0 Union Santa Fe | 11.8% |
| Boca Juniors 2-0 Union Santa Fe | 10.9% |
| Boca Juniors 1-1 Union Santa Fe | 10.6% |
| Boca Juniors 2-1 Union Santa Fe | 9.9% |
| Boca Juniors 3-0 Union Santa Fe | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.86 expected goals for Boca Juniors and 0.90 for Union Santa Fe, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 52% and "both teams to score" at 50%. Boca Juniors keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Union Santa Fe in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Boca Juniors expected goals | 1.86 |
| Union Santa Fe expected goals | 0.90 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Boca Juniors clean sheet | 41% |
| Union Santa Fe clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Boca Juniors
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sao Paulo · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago · Argentine Primera División | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sao Paulo · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Gimnasia M. · Argentine Primera División | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield · Copa Argentina | 0-0 | D |
Union Santa Fe
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba · Argentine Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba · Argentine Primera División | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Sarmiento Junin · Argentine Primera División | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Aldosivi · Argentine Primera División | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Lorenzo · Argentine Primera División | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 5 | 17 | 10 |
| Union Santa Fe | 9 | 13 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | Union Santa Fe 1-1 Boca Juniors | Argentine Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Boca Juniors
No absences reported.
Union Santa Fe
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Boca Juniors
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Velasco4/5
- L. Blanco4/5
- T. Belmonte4/5
- A. Montero3/5
- F. Herrera3/5
- L. Di Lollo3/5
- L. Flores3/5
- L. Lozano3/5
- L. Paredes3/5
- D. Gorosito2/5
- E. Valencia2/5
Union Santa Fe
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Luduena5/5
- L. Menossi5/5
- M. Estigarribia5/5
- M. Mansilla5/5
- C. Tarragona4/5
- E. Giaccone4/5
- J. Pintado4/5
- L. Ayala4/5
- B. Cuello3/5
- I. Malcorra3/5
- J. Palacios3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Huracan – AldosiviOct 4, 2026
- Sarmiento Junin – River PlateOct 4, 2026
- Talleres Cordoba – Belgrano CordobaOct 4, 2026
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto – Racing ClubOct 5, 2026
- Deportivo Riestra – Central Cordoba de SantiagoOct 5, 2026
- Velez Sarsfield – PlatenseOct 5, 2026
- Estudiantes L.P. – Gimnasia M.Oct 5, 2026
- Banfield – Rosario CentralOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe prediction?
Our AI gives Boca Juniors a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Union Santa Fe 18%. Boca Juniors are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%) and 3-0 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
The probability that both Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe score is 50%. Boca Juniors have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Union Santa Fe 16%.
How many goals should we expect in Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
The model expects 2.76 goals (1.86 for Boca Juniors, 0.90 for Union Santa Fe). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 23:15 (UK time), Argentine Primera División. Venue: Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires.
What form are Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe in?
Boca Juniors: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Union Santa Fe: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Boca Juniors, 0 for Union Santa Fe and 1 draw. The most recent ended Union Santa Fe 1-1 Boca Juniors (Mar 16, 2026).
How is the Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.86 for Boca Juniors, 0.90 for Union Santa Fe) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Boca Juniors predictions
- All Union Santa Fe predictions
- Argentine Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology