Argentine Primera División· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 23:00 (UK time)
Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Argentine Primera División: the Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. match is scheduled on Monday, October 5, 2026 at 23:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata. It is a tight call: 34% for Estudiantes L.P., 26% for the draw and 40% for Gimnasia M.. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.0%) and 1-0 (9.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Estudiantes L.P. have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Gimnasia M. have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Gimnasia M. therefore arrive in far better shape than Estudiantes L.P.. On average Estudiantes L.P. score 1.00 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Gimnasia M. score 2.20 and concede 1.40. In the table, Estudiantes L.P. sit 11th with 10 points from 10 games, Gimnasia M. 4th with 17 points from 10. 7 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Estudiantes L.P., 0 for Gimnasia M. and 0 draws. The most recent ended Gimnasia M. 1-2 Estudiantes L.P. (Mar 18, 2026). In double chance terms, "Estudiantes L.P. or draw" stands at 60%, "Gimnasia M. or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Estudiantes L.P. and Gimnasia M.: our model sees no clear favourite. In the table, Estudiantes L.P. (11th, 10 pts) host Gimnasia M. (4th, 17 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 53%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Estudiantes L.P. – Gimnasia M.. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Estudiantes L.P. 1-1 Gimnasia M. | 12.5% |
| Estudiantes L.P. 0-1 Gimnasia M. | 10.0% |
| Estudiantes L.P. 1-0 Gimnasia M. | 9.0% |
| Estudiantes L.P. 1-2 Gimnasia M. | 8.6% |
| Estudiantes L.P. 2-1 Gimnasia M. | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.24 expected goals for Estudiantes L.P. and 1.38 for Gimnasia M., "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Estudiantes L.P. keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Gimnasia M. in 29%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Estudiantes L.P. expected goals | 1.24 |
| Gimnasia M. expected goals | 1.38 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Estudiantes L.P. clean sheet | 25% |
| Gimnasia M. clean sheet | 29% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Estudiantes L.P.
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Lanus · Argentine Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Corinthians · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Platense · Argentine Primera División | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Corinthians · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield · Argentine Primera División | 0-1 | L |
Gimnasia M.
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia · Argentine Primera División | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Boca Juniors · Argentine Primera División | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Independiente · Argentine Primera División | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P. · Argentine Primera División | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba · Argentine Primera División | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes L.P. | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| Gimnasia M. | 4 | 17 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Gimnasia M. 1-2 Estudiantes L.P. | Argentine Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Estudiantes L.P.
No absences reported.
Gimnasia M.
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Estudiantes L.P.
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Castro4/5
- F. Muslera4/5
- G. Benedetti4/5
- A. Gaich3/5
- E. Meza3/5
- J. Burgos3/5
- B. Rodriguez2/5
- E. Cetre2/5
- E. Mancuso2/5
- G. Carrillo2/5
- Gabriel Neves2/5
Gimnasia M.
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Rigamonti5/5
- D. Mondino5/5
- F. Antonini5/5
- F. Lencioni5/5
- L. Cingolani5/5
- M. Recalde5/5
- E. Fernandez4/5
- E. Munoz4/5
- L. Paredes4/5
- T. O'Connor4/5
- A. Modica3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Huracan – AldosiviOct 4, 2026
- Sarmiento Junin – River PlateOct 4, 2026
- Talleres Cordoba – Belgrano CordobaOct 4, 2026
- Boca Juniors – Union Santa FeOct 4, 2026
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto – Racing ClubOct 5, 2026
- Deportivo Riestra – Central Cordoba de SantiagoOct 5, 2026
- Velez Sarsfield – PlatenseOct 5, 2026
- Banfield – Rosario CentralOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. prediction?
Our AI gives Estudiantes L.P. a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Gimnasia M. 40%. Gimnasia M. are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M.?
1-1 (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%) and 2-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M.?
The probability that both Estudiantes L.P. and Gimnasia M. score is 53%. Estudiantes L.P. have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Gimnasia M. 29%.
How many goals should we expect in Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M.?
The model expects 2.62 goals (1.24 for Estudiantes L.P., 1.38 for Gimnasia M.). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 23:00 (UK time), Argentine Primera División. Venue: Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata.
What form are Estudiantes L.P. and Gimnasia M. in?
Estudiantes L.P.: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 5 conceded). Gimnasia M.: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Estudiantes L.P. and Gimnasia M.?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Estudiantes L.P., 0 for Gimnasia M. and 0 draws. The most recent ended Gimnasia M. 1-2 Estudiantes L.P. (Mar 18, 2026).
How is the Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.24 for Estudiantes L.P., 1.38 for Gimnasia M.) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Estudiantes L.P. predictions
- All Gimnasia M. predictions
- Argentine Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology