Argentine Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 18:45 (UK time)
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Argentine Primera División: the Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate match is scheduled on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 18:45 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Eva Peron, Junin. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Sarmiento Junin 34%, River Plate 45% and the draw 21%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (8.0%), ahead of 1-1 (7.7%) and 2-2 (7.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sarmiento Junin have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, River Plate have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Sarmiento Junin score 1.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; River Plate score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Sarmiento Junin sit 7th with 16 points from 10 games, River Plate 8th with 13 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sarmiento Junin, 1 for River Plate and 0 draws. The most recent ended River Plate 2-0 Sarmiento Junin (Mar 15, 2026). In double chance terms, "Sarmiento Junin or draw" stands at 55%, "River Plate or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Our model backs River Plate to edge Sarmiento Junin (45% probability). On recent form, Sarmiento Junin have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while River Plate have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 74%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sarmiento Junin – River Plate. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 36% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sarmiento Junin 1-2 River Plate | 8.0% |
| Sarmiento Junin 1-1 River Plate | 7.7% |
| Sarmiento Junin 2-2 River Plate | 7.2% |
| Sarmiento Junin 2-1 River Plate | 7.0% |
| Sarmiento Junin 1-3 River Plate | 5.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.88 goals in total (1.80 for Sarmiento Junin, 2.08 for River Plate): over 2.5 goals has a 74% probability and both teams to score 73%. Everything points to an open game. Sarmiento Junin keep a clean sheet in 13% of scenarios, River Plate in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sarmiento Junin expected goals | 1.80 |
| River Plate expected goals | 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% |
| Sarmiento Junin clean sheet | 13% |
| River Plate clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sarmiento Junin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Belgrano Cordoba · Argentine Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · Argentine Primera División | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Union Santa Fe · Argentine Primera División | 1-4 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P. · Argentine Primera División | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Huracan · Argentine Primera División | 2-0 | W |
River Plate
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Huracan · Argentine Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman · Argentine Primera División | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia · Argentine Primera División | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Banfield · Argentine Primera División | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Santa Fe · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento Junin | 7 | 16 | 10 |
| River Plate | 8 | 13 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | River Plate 2-0 Sarmiento Junin | Argentine Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Sarmiento Junin
No absences reported.
River Plate
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sarmiento Junin
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Herrera5/5
- J. Insaurralde5/5
- J. Marabel5/5
- J. Mavilla5/5
- M. Martinez5/5
- R. Orihuela5/5
- S. Salle5/5
- T. Ayala5/5
- C. Zabala4/5
- J. Contrera4/5
- L. Suarez4/5
River Plate
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Correa4/5
- Fausto Vera4/5
- G. Montiel4/5
- L. Martinez Quarta4/5
- M. Acuna4/5
- N. Otamendi4/5
- S. Beltran4/5
- S. Driussi4/5
- T. Almada4/5
- T. Andrada4/5
- T. Galvan4/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Defensa Y Justicia – San LorenzoOct 3, 2026
- Newells Old Boys – LanusOct 3, 2026
- Atletico Tucuman – Barracas CentralOct 3, 2026
- Argentinos JRS – TigreOct 3, 2026
- Huracan – AldosiviOct 4, 2026
- Talleres Cordoba – Belgrano CordobaOct 4, 2026
- Boca Juniors – Union Santa FeOct 4, 2026
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto – Racing ClubOct 5, 2026
- Deportivo Riestra – Central Cordoba de SantiagoOct 5, 2026
- Velez Sarsfield – PlatenseOct 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate prediction?
Our AI gives Sarmiento Junin a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and River Plate 45%. River Plate are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?
1-2 (8.0%), followed by 1-1 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.2%), 2-1 (7.0%) and 1-3 (5.6%).
Will both teams score in Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?
The probability that both Sarmiento Junin and River Plate score is 73%. Sarmiento Junin have a 13% chance of keeping a clean sheet, River Plate 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?
The model expects 3.88 goals (1.80 for Sarmiento Junin, 2.08 for River Plate). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 74%, over 3.5 goals 54%.
When and where is Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 18:45 (UK time), Argentine Primera División. Venue: Estadio Eva Peron, Junin.
What form are Sarmiento Junin and River Plate in?
Sarmiento Junin: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded). River Plate: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sarmiento Junin and River Plate?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sarmiento Junin, 1 for River Plate and 0 draws. The most recent ended River Plate 2-0 Sarmiento Junin (Mar 15, 2026).
How is the Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.80 for Sarmiento Junin, 2.08 for River Plate) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sarmiento Junin predictions
- All River Plate predictions
- Argentine Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology