Argentine Primera División· Kick-off : Friday, November 6, 2026, 22:15 (UK time)
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Independiente 2-1 Deportivo Riestra. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Independiente was the model's favourite outcome (63%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (38%): missed.
Match analysis
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra was played on Friday, November 6, 2026 (Argentine Primera División). Venue: Libertadores de America, Buenos Aires. Before kick-off, our model gave Independiente a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Deportivo Riestra 13%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (17.8%), ahead of 2-0 (14.6%) and 0-0 (10.9%).
Independiente have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 7. Deportivo Riestra have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Independiente score 0.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Deportivo Riestra score 0.40 and concede 1.40. In the table, Independiente sit 8th with 20 points from 15 games, Deportivo Riestra 14th with 12 points from 15. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Independiente have averaged 1.12 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.85 for Deportivo Riestra.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Independiente, 2 for Deportivo Riestra and 1 draw. The most recent ended Deportivo Riestra 2-0 Independiente (Apr 24, 2026). In double chance terms, "Independiente or draw" stands at 87%, "Deportivo Riestra or draw" at 37% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Our model backs Independiente to edge Deportivo Riestra (63% probability). On recent form, Independiente have 0 win, 3 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Deportivo Riestra have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Independiente – Deportivo Riestra. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 62% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Independiente 1-0 Deportivo Riestra | 17.8% |
| Independiente 2-0 Deportivo Riestra | 14.6% |
| Independiente 0-0 Deportivo Riestra | 10.9% |
| Independiente 1-1 Deportivo Riestra | 10.3% |
| Independiente 2-1 Deportivo Riestra | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.22 goals in total (1.64 for Independiente, 0.58 for Deportivo Riestra): over 2.5 goals has a 38% probability and both teams to score 36%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Independiente keep a clean sheet in 56% of scenarios, Deportivo Riestra in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Independiente expected goals | 1.64 |
| Deportivo Riestra expected goals | 0.58 |
| Both teams to score | 36% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% |
| Independiente clean sheet | 56% |
| Deportivo Riestra clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Independiente
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia · Argentine Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Boca Juniors · Argentine Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Racing Club · Argentine Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba · Argentine Primera División | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba · Argentine Primera División | 1-4 | L |
Deportivo Riestra
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba · Argentine Primera División | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba · Argentine Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Union Santa Fe · Argentine Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Lorenzo · Argentine Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago · Argentine Primera División | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente | 8 | 20 | 15 |
| Deportivo Riestra | 14 | 12 | 15 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra 2-0 Independiente | Argentine Primera División |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Deportivo Riestra 0-1 Independiente | Argentine Primera División |
| Apr 28, 2025 | Independiente 0-0 Deportivo Riestra | Argentine Primera División |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Independiente 3-1 Deportivo Riestra | Argentine Primera División |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Deportivo Riestra 1-0 Independiente | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Out and doubtful
Independiente
No absences reported.
Deportivo Riestra
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Independiente
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- S. Montiel5/5
- I. Marcone4/5
- J. Arrayago4/5
- M. Meza4/5
- M. Perez Curci4/5
- N. Banegas4/5
- S. Arias4/5
- S. Valdez4/5
- C. Avila3/5
- R. Rey3/5
- J. Palais2/5
Deportivo Riestra
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Paz5/5
- M. Bracamonte5/5
- A. Alonso3/5
- B. Sanchez3/5
- I. Arce3/5
- J. Randazzo3/5
- M. Celiz3/5
- N. Sansotre3/5
- N. Watson3/5
- A. Diaz2/5
- C. Quintana2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Barracas Central 2-0 Racing ClubNov 6, 2026
- Union Santa Fe 2-0 Velez SarsfieldNov 6, 2026
- San Lorenzo 0-2 PlatenseNov 6, 2026
- Tigre 1-0 Sarmiento JuninNov 7, 2026
- Banfield 2-2 Atletico TucumanNov 7, 2026
- Gimnasia M. 1-1 Independ. RivadaviaNov 7, 2026
- Talleres Cordoba 1-1 Estudiantes L.P.Nov 7, 2026
- Boca Juniors 1-0 Defensa Y JusticiaNov 7, 2026
- Argentinos JRS 0-2 HuracanNov 7, 2026
- Rosario Central 2-0 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoNov 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Independiente a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Deportivo Riestra 13%. Independiente are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra?
1-0 (17.8%), followed by 2-0 (14.6%), 0-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.3%) and 2-1 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra?
The probability that both Independiente and Deportivo Riestra score is 36%. Independiente have a 56% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Deportivo Riestra 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra?
The model expects 2.22 goals (1.64 for Independiente, 0.58 for Deportivo Riestra). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 65%, over 2.5 goals 38%, over 3.5 goals 19%.
When and where is Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra played?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 22:15 (UK time), Argentine Primera División. Venue: Libertadores de America, Buenos Aires.
What form are Independiente and Deportivo Riestra in?
Independiente: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 7 conceded). Deportivo Riestra: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Independiente and Deportivo Riestra?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Independiente, 2 for Deportivo Riestra and 1 draw. The most recent ended Deportivo Riestra 2-0 Independiente (Apr 24, 2026).
What was the Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Independiente 2-1 Deportivo Riestra. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Independiente was the model's favourite outcome (63%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (38%): missed.
How is the Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.64 for Independiente, 0.58 for Deportivo Riestra) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Independiente predictions
- All Deportivo Riestra predictions
- Argentine Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology