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Argentine Primera DivisiónArgentine Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)

Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1 – 1Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-0

Final score: Gimnasia M. 1-1 Independ. Rivadavia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Gimnasia M. (40%), while a draw was rated at only 36%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (12.2%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (27%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (19%): correct.

Match analysis

Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia was played on Saturday, November 7, 2026 (Argentine Primera División). Venue: Víctor Legrotaglie, Mendoza. Before kick-off, our model gave Gimnasia M. a 40% chance of winning, the draw 36% and Independ. Rivadavia 24%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (22.1%), ahead of 1-0 (19.7%) and 0-1 (13.7%).

Gimnasia M. have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 7. Independ. Rivadavia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Gimnasia M. score 0.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Independ. Rivadavia score 1.20 and concede 2.00. In the table, Gimnasia M. sit 8th with 21 points from 15 games, Independ. Rivadavia 7th with 22 points from 15. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Gimnasia M. have averaged 0.82 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.67 for Independ. Rivadavia.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Gimnasia M., 2 for Independ. Rivadavia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Independ. Rivadavia 5-1 Gimnasia M. (Apr 26, 2026). In double chance terms, "Gimnasia M. or draw" stands at 76%, "Independ. Rivadavia or draw" at 60% and "no draw" at 64%.

In short : Our model backs Gimnasia M. to edge Independ. Rivadavia (40% probability). On recent form, Gimnasia M. have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Independ. Rivadavia have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

40%
Gimnasia M. (Win)
36%
Draw
24%
Independ. Rivadavia (Win)

Double chance

76%
Gimnasia M. or draw
60%
Independ. Rivadavia or draw
64%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Gimnasia M. – Independ. Rivadavia. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (22.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 76% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Gimnasia M. 0-0 Independ. Rivadavia22.1%
Gimnasia M. 1-0 Independ. Rivadavia19.7%
Gimnasia M. 0-1 Independ. Rivadavia13.7%
Gimnasia M. 1-1 Independ. Rivadavia12.2%
Gimnasia M. 2-0 Independ. Rivadavia8.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 1.51 goals in total (0.89 for Gimnasia M., 0.62 for Independ. Rivadavia): over 2.5 goals has a 19% probability and both teams to score 27%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Gimnasia M. keep a clean sheet in 54% of scenarios, Independ. Rivadavia in 41%.

Probability
Gimnasia M. expected goals0.89
Independ. Rivadavia expected goals0.62
Both teams to score27%
Over 1.5 goals45%
Over 2.5 goals19%
Over 3.5 goals7%
Gimnasia M. clean sheet54%
Independ. Rivadavia clean sheet41%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Gimnasia M.

DateOpponentScore
Nov 1, 2026Lanus · Argentine Primera División1-1D
Oct 23, 2026Platense · Argentine Primera División1-2L
Oct 18, 2026Velez Sarsfield · Argentine Primera División0-1L
Oct 12, 2026Newells Old Boys · Argentine Primera División1-0W
Oct 5, 2026Estudiantes L.P. · Argentine Primera División0-3L

Independ. Rivadavia

DateOpponentScore
Nov 3, 2026Banfield · Argentine Primera División3-1W
Oct 27, 2026Argentinos JRS · Argentine Primera División0-1L
Oct 17, 2026Tigre · Argentine Primera División2-2D
Oct 11, 2026Rosario Central · Argentine Primera División0-5L
Oct 3, 2026Gimnasia L.P. · Argentine Primera División1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Gimnasia M.82115
Independ. Rivadavia72215

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 26, 2026Independ. Rivadavia 5-1 Gimnasia M.Argentine Primera División
Oct 22, 2022Gimnasia M. 1-0 Independ. RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
Jul 3, 2022Gimnasia M. 2-0 Independ. RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
Feb 24, 2022Independ. Rivadavia 2-0 Gimnasia M.Copa Argentina
Sep 30, 2018Gimnasia M. 1-0 Independ. RivadaviaPrimera Nacional

Out and doubtful

Gimnasia M.

No absences reported.

Independ. Rivadavia

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Gimnasia M.

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • C. Rigamonti5/5
  • D. Mondino5/5
  • F. Lencioni5/5
  • L. Paredes5/5
  • M. Recalde5/5
  • A. Modica4/5
  • E. Fernandez4/5
  • F. Antonini4/5
  • E. Munoz3/5
  • L. Cingolani3/5
  • M. Vargas3/5

Independ. Rivadavia

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • L. Costa5/5
  • T. Bottari4/5
  • A. Arce3/5
  • F. Sartori3/5
  • J. I. Florentin Bobadilla3/5
  • J. M. Elordi3/5
  • L. Gomez3/5
  • L. Sequeira3/5
  • M. Fernandez3/5
  • N. Bolcato3/5
  • S. Studer3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Gimnasia M. a 40% chance of winning, the draw 36% and Independ. Rivadavia 24%. Gimnasia M. are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia?

0-0 (22.1%), followed by 1-0 (19.7%), 0-1 (13.7%), 1-1 (12.2%) and 2-0 (8.7%).

Will both teams score in Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia?

The probability that both Gimnasia M. and Independ. Rivadavia score is 27%. Gimnasia M. have a 54% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Independ. Rivadavia 41%.

How many goals should we expect in Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia?

The model expects 1.51 goals (0.89 for Gimnasia M., 0.62 for Independ. Rivadavia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 45%, over 2.5 goals 19%, over 3.5 goals 7%.

When and where is Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia played?

Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), Argentine Primera División. Venue: Víctor Legrotaglie, Mendoza.

What form are Gimnasia M. and Independ. Rivadavia in?

Gimnasia M.: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 7 conceded). Independ. Rivadavia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 10 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Gimnasia M. and Independ. Rivadavia?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Gimnasia M., 2 for Independ. Rivadavia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Independ. Rivadavia 5-1 Gimnasia M. (Apr 26, 2026).

What was the Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Gimnasia M. 1-1 Independ. Rivadavia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Gimnasia M. (40%), while a draw was rated at only 36%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (12.2%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (27%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (19%): correct.

How is the Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.89 for Gimnasia M., 0.62 for Independ. Rivadavia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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