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Argentine Primera DivisiónArgentine Primera División· Kick-off : Friday, November 6, 2026, 22:15 (UK time)

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield: 2-0 result and AI prediction review

Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe2 – 0Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Union Santa Fe 2-0 Velez Sarsfield. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Velez Sarsfield (49%), while victory for Union Santa Fe was rated at only 28%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): missed.

Match analysis

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield was played on Friday, November 6, 2026 (Argentine Primera División). Venue: Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe de la Vera Cruz. Before kick-off, our model gave Union Santa Fe a 28% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Velez Sarsfield 49%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.1%), ahead of 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-1 (7.3%).

Union Santa Fe have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Velez Sarsfield have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Velez Sarsfield. On average Union Santa Fe score 1.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Velez Sarsfield score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Union Santa Fe sit 10th with 18 points from 15 games, Velez Sarsfield 3rd with 28 points from 15. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Union Santa Fe have averaged 1.58 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.62 for Velez Sarsfield.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Union Santa Fe, 1 for Velez Sarsfield and 2 draws. The most recent ended Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Union Santa Fe (Apr 27, 2026). In double chance terms, "Union Santa Fe or draw" stands at 51%, "Velez Sarsfield or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 77%.

In short : Our model backs Velez Sarsfield to edge Union Santa Fe (49% probability). On recent form, Union Santa Fe have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Velez Sarsfield have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 63%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

28%
Union Santa Fe (Win)
23%
Draw
49%
Velez Sarsfield (Win)

Double chance

51%
Union Santa Fe or draw
72%
Velez Sarsfield or draw
77%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Union Santa Fe – Velez Sarsfield. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Union Santa Fe 1-1 Velez Sarsfield10.1%
Union Santa Fe 1-2 Velez Sarsfield9.3%
Union Santa Fe 0-1 Velez Sarsfield7.3%
Union Santa Fe 2-1 Velez Sarsfield6.9%
Union Santa Fe 0-2 Velez Sarsfield6.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.24 goals in total (1.38 for Union Santa Fe, 1.86 for Velez Sarsfield): over 2.5 goals has a 63% probability and both teams to score 63%. Everything points to an open game. Union Santa Fe keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, Velez Sarsfield in 25%.

Probability
Union Santa Fe expected goals1.38
Velez Sarsfield expected goals1.86
Both teams to score63%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Union Santa Fe clean sheet16%
Velez Sarsfield clean sheet25%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Union Santa Fe

DateOpponentScore
Nov 1, 2026Newells Old Boys · Argentine Primera División1-1D
Oct 26, 2026Estudiantes L.P. · Argentine Primera División3-1W
Oct 20, 2026Deportivo Riestra · Argentine Primera División1-1D
Oct 10, 2026Defensa Y Justicia · Argentine Primera División0-2L
Oct 3, 2026Boca Juniors · Argentine Primera División0-3L

Velez Sarsfield

DateOpponentScore
Oct 31, 2026San Lorenzo · Argentine Primera División2-2D
Oct 26, 2026Central Cordoba de Santiago · Argentine Primera División5-0W
Oct 18, 2026Gimnasia M. · Argentine Primera División1-0W
Oct 12, 2026Lanus · Argentine Primera División0-2L
Oct 5, 2026Platense · Argentine Primera División2-2D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Union Santa Fe101815
Velez Sarsfield32815

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 27, 2026Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Union Santa FeArgentine Primera División
Dec 7, 2024Union Santa Fe 1-0 Velez SarsfieldArgentine Primera División
Jul 24, 2023Velez Sarsfield 0-0 Union Santa FeArgentine Primera División
Aug 6, 2022Union Santa Fe 2-1 Velez SarsfieldArgentine Primera División
Sep 7, 2021Velez Sarsfield 4-0 Union Santa FeArgentine Primera División

Out and doubtful

Union Santa Fe

No absences reported.

Velez Sarsfield

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Union Santa Fe

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • C. Tarragona5/5
  • J. Mosqueira5/5
  • L. Ayala5/5
  • M. Mansilla5/5
  • B. Cuello4/5
  • J. Palacios4/5
  • M. Rocha4/5
  • T. Rubio4/5
  • J. Luduena3/5
  • M. Estigarribia3/5
  • M. Luna Diale3/5

Velez Sarsfield

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Policella5/5
  • L. Robertone5/5
  • T. Marchiori5/5
  • E. Gomez4/5
  • J. Garcia4/5
  • L. Magallan4/5
  • M. Lanzini4/5
  • R. Aliendro4/5
  • R. Martinez4/5
  • T. Silvero4/5
  • M. Pellegrini2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Union Santa Fe a 28% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Velez Sarsfield 49%. Velez Sarsfield are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?

1-1 (10.1%), followed by 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.3%), 2-1 (6.9%) and 0-2 (6.8%).

Will both teams score in Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?

The probability that both Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield score is 63%. Union Santa Fe have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Velez Sarsfield 25%.

How many goals should we expect in Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?

The model expects 3.24 goals (1.38 for Union Santa Fe, 1.86 for Velez Sarsfield). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 63%, over 3.5 goals 41%.

When and where is Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield played?

Friday, November 6, 2026 at 22:15 (UK time), Argentine Primera División. Venue: Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe de la Vera Cruz.

What form are Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield in?

Union Santa Fe: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded). Velez Sarsfield: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Union Santa Fe, 1 for Velez Sarsfield and 2 draws. The most recent ended Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Union Santa Fe (Apr 27, 2026).

What was the Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Union Santa Fe 2-0 Velez Sarsfield. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Velez Sarsfield (49%), while victory for Union Santa Fe was rated at only 28%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): missed.

How is the Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.38 for Union Santa Fe, 1.86 for Velez Sarsfield) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained