Argentine Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Tigre 1-0 Sarmiento Junin. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Tigre was the model's favourite outcome (43%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (10.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): correct.
Match analysis
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin was played on Saturday, November 7, 2026 (Argentine Primera División). Venue: Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna, Buenos Aires. Before kick-off, our model gave Tigre a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sarmiento Junin 31%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.5%), ahead of 1-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (8.9%).
Tigre have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Sarmiento Junin have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Tigre score 1.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Sarmiento Junin score 1.20 and concede 1.40. In the table, Tigre sit 11th with 16 points from 15 games, Sarmiento Junin 8th with 21 points from 15. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Tigre have averaged 1.47 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.11 for Sarmiento Junin.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Tigre, 2 for Sarmiento Junin and 2 draws. The most recent ended Sarmiento Junin 1-0 Tigre (Apr 25, 2026). In double chance terms, "Tigre or draw" stands at 69%, "Sarmiento Junin or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Tigre are favourites for this Tigre v Sarmiento Junin, with a 43% win probability from our model. In the table, Tigre (11th, 16 pts) host Sarmiento Junin (8th, 21 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Tigre – Sarmiento Junin. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tigre 1-1 Sarmiento Junin | 12.5% |
| Tigre 1-0 Sarmiento Junin | 10.9% |
| Tigre 2-1 Sarmiento Junin | 8.9% |
| Tigre 0-1 Sarmiento Junin | 8.8% |
| Tigre 2-0 Sarmiento Junin | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.57 goals in total (1.42 for Tigre, 1.15 for Sarmiento Junin): over 2.5 goals has a 47% probability and both teams to score 52%. Tigre keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Sarmiento Junin in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Tigre expected goals | 1.42 |
| Sarmiento Junin expected goals | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Tigre clean sheet | 32% |
| Sarmiento Junin clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Tigre
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Huracan · Argentine Primera División | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman · Argentine Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia · Argentine Primera División | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Banfield · Argentine Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Argentinos JRS · Argentine Primera División | 1-2 | L |
Sarmiento Junin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Rosario Central · Argentine Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P. · Argentine Primera División | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Barracas Central · Argentine Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 14, 2026 | River Plate · Argentine Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Aldosivi · Argentine Primera División | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigre | 11 | 16 | 15 |
| Sarmiento Junin | 8 | 21 | 15 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Sarmiento Junin 1-0 Tigre | Argentine Primera División |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Sarmiento Junin 0-0 Tigre | Argentine Primera División |
| Jan 25, 2024 | Tigre 0-0 Sarmiento Junin | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Aug 20, 2023 | Sarmiento Junin 2-0 Tigre | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Apr 14, 2023 | Tigre 1-0 Sarmiento Junin | Argentine Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Tigre
No absences reported.
Sarmiento Junin
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Tigre
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Barrionuevo5/5
- B. Leyes5/5
- J. Laso5/5
- F. Alvarez4/5
- F. T. Zenobio4/5
- I. Russo4/5
- J. Domina4/5
- J. Saralegui4/5
- S. Gonzalez4/5
- M. Garay3/5
- S. Lopez3/5
Sarmiento Junin
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Zabala5/5
- J. Insaurralde5/5
- J. Marabel5/5
- J. Mavilla5/5
- T. Ayala5/5
- L. Suarez4/5
- R. Orihuela4/5
- J. Contrera3/5
- J. Renteria3/5
- M. Martinez3/5
- S. Salle3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Barracas Central 2-0 Racing ClubNov 6, 2026
- Union Santa Fe 2-0 Velez SarsfieldNov 6, 2026
- San Lorenzo 0-2 PlatenseNov 6, 2026
- Independiente 2-1 Deportivo RiestraNov 6, 2026
- Banfield 2-2 Atletico TucumanNov 7, 2026
- Gimnasia M. 1-1 Independ. RivadaviaNov 7, 2026
- Talleres Cordoba 1-1 Estudiantes L.P.Nov 7, 2026
- Boca Juniors 1-0 Defensa Y JusticiaNov 7, 2026
- Argentinos JRS 0-2 HuracanNov 7, 2026
- Rosario Central 2-0 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoNov 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Tigre a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sarmiento Junin 31%. Tigre are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin?
1-1 (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin?
The probability that both Tigre and Sarmiento Junin score is 52%. Tigre have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sarmiento Junin 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin?
The model expects 2.57 goals (1.42 for Tigre, 1.15 for Sarmiento Junin). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 47%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin played?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), Argentine Primera División. Venue: Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna, Buenos Aires.
What form are Tigre and Sarmiento Junin in?
Tigre: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded). Sarmiento Junin: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Tigre and Sarmiento Junin?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Tigre, 2 for Sarmiento Junin and 2 draws. The most recent ended Sarmiento Junin 1-0 Tigre (Apr 25, 2026).
What was the Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Tigre 1-0 Sarmiento Junin. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Tigre was the model's favourite outcome (43%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (10.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): correct.
How is the Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.42 for Tigre, 1.15 for Sarmiento Junin) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Tigre predictions
- All Sarmiento Junin predictions
- Argentine Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology