Ivorian Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
ASEC Mimosas vs AFAD: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: ASEC Mimosas 1-1 AFAD. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for ASEC Mimosas (51%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
Match analysis
ASEC Mimosas and AFAD met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Ivorian Ligue 1, matchday 3 fixture. Before kick-off, our model gave ASEC Mimosas a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AFAD 24%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
ASEC Mimosas have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. AFAD have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 7 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average ASEC Mimosas score 0.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; AFAD score 1.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, ASEC Mimosas sit 13th with 1 points from 2 games, AFAD 10th with 1 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between ASEC Mimosas and AFAD: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "ASEC Mimosas or draw" stands at 76%, "AFAD or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs ASEC Mimosas to edge AFAD (51% probability). On recent form, ASEC Mimosas have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while AFAD have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 52%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as ASEC Mimosas – AFAD. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| ASEC Mimosas 1-1 AFAD | 11.8% |
| ASEC Mimosas 1-0 AFAD | 11.4% |
| ASEC Mimosas 2-1 AFAD | 9.5% |
| ASEC Mimosas 2-0 AFAD | 9.2% |
| ASEC Mimosas 0-1 AFAD | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.61 expected goals for ASEC Mimosas and 1.04 for AFAD, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. ASEC Mimosas keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, AFAD in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| ASEC Mimosas expected goals | 1.61 |
| AFAD expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| ASEC Mimosas clean sheet | 35% |
| AFAD clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
ASEC Mimosas
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Stella · Ivorian Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Yamoussoukro · Ivorian Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | ASC Kara · CAF Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | ASC Kara · CAF Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Medeama · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
AFAD
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | SOA · Ivorian Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Bouaké · Ivorian Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | East End Lions · CAF Confederation Cup | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | East End Lions · CAF Confederation Cup | 1-1 | D |
| May 24, 2026 | SOL · Ivorian Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASEC Mimosas | 13 | 1 | 2 |
| AFAD | 10 | 1 | 2 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between ASEC Mimosas and AFAD: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
ASEC Mimosas
No absences reported.
AFAD
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- ISCA 1-0 BouakéOct 7, 2026
- Bouaké 0-3 San-PédroOct 10, 2026
- Stade d'Abidjan 1-1 ES AgbovilleOct 10, 2026
- Mouna 0-1 SOLOct 11, 2026
- Korhogo 3-3 US TchologoOct 12, 2026
- SOA 1-0 ISCAOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the ASEC Mimosas vs AFAD prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave ASEC Mimosas a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AFAD 24%. ASEC Mimosas are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for ASEC Mimosas vs AFAD?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in ASEC Mimosas vs AFAD?
The probability that both ASEC Mimosas and AFAD score is 52%. ASEC Mimosas have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AFAD 20%.
How many goals should we expect in ASEC Mimosas vs AFAD?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.61 for ASEC Mimosas, 1.04 for AFAD). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is ASEC Mimosas vs AFAD played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Ivorian Ligue 1, matchday 3.
What form are ASEC Mimosas and AFAD in?
ASEC Mimosas: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded). AFAD: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded).
What was the ASEC Mimosas vs AFAD result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: ASEC Mimosas 1-1 AFAD. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for ASEC Mimosas (51%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
How is the ASEC Mimosas vs AFAD prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for ASEC Mimosas, 1.04 for AFAD) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All ASEC Mimosas predictions
- All AFAD predictions
- Ivorian Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology