Ligue 2· Kick-off : Friday, October 16, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Guingamp vs PAU: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Guingamp 1-2 PAU. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Guingamp (45%), while victory for PAU was rated at only 28%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.6%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): missed.
Match analysis
Guingamp and PAU met on Friday, October 16, 2026, a Ligue 2, matchday 9 fixture. Venue: Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp. Before kick-off, our model gave Guingamp a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and PAU 28%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.8%), followed by 1-0 (12.4%) and 0-1 (9.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Guingamp have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, PAU have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. PAU therefore arrive in far better shape than Guingamp. On average Guingamp score 1.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; PAU score 1.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Guingamp sit 11th with 8 points from 8 games, PAU 8th with 11 points from 8. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Guingamp, 2 for PAU and 1 draw. The most recent ended PAU 2-1 Guingamp (Apr 17, 2026). In double chance terms, "Guingamp or draw" stands at 72%, "PAU or draw" at 55% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Guingamp are tipped by our AI model in this Guingamp v PAU (45%). In the table, Guingamp (11th, 8 pts) host PAU (8th, 11 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Guingamp – PAU. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Guingamp 1-1 PAU | 12.8% |
| Guingamp 1-0 PAU | 12.4% |
| Guingamp 0-1 PAU | 9.3% |
| Guingamp 0-0 PAU | 9.0% |
| Guingamp 2-1 PAU | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.38 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.03 for PAU, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 43% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, PAU in 25%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Guingamp expected goals | 1.38 |
| PAU expected goals | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% |
| Guingamp clean sheet | 36% |
| PAU clean sheet | 25% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Guingamp
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Nancy · Ligue 2 | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Le Mans · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | RED Star FC 93 · Ligue 2 | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Annecy · Ligue 2 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Reims · Ligue 2 | 2-2 | D |
PAU
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Laval · Ligue 2 | 3-2 | W |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Toulouse · Club Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Dunkerque · Ligue 2 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Montpellier · Ligue 2 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Sochaux · Ligue 2 | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| PAU | 8 | 11 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | PAU 2-1 Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Guingamp 2-2 PAU | Ligue 2 |
| May 10, 2025 | PAU 1-3 Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Guingamp 0-1 PAU | Ligue 2 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | PAU 1-2 Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
Out and doubtful
Guingamp
No absences reported.
PAU
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Guingamp
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Ortola4/4
- D. Louiserre4/4
- E. Koffi4/4
- S. Ben Brahim4/4
- T. Ahile4/4
- T. Ollila4/4
- A. Demouchy3/4
- D. Gomis3/4
- T. Averlant3/4
- T. Ducrocq3/4
- B. Bokangu2/4
PAU
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Abdallah4/4
- A. Briancon4/4
- B. Leye4/4
- B. Maubleu4/4
- C. Fall4/4
- G. Paquiez4/4
- J. Benet4/4
- T. Pouilly4/4
- H. Benali3/4
- A. Bamba2/4
- L. Rajot2/4
Other matches in this competition
- Dijon 4-2 MetzOct 12, 2026
- Laval 3-3 Clermont FootOct 16, 2026
- Grenoble 0-2 BoulogneOct 16, 2026
- Annecy 1-2 NancyOct 16, 2026
- Reims 4-2 DijonOct 16, 2026
- Nantes – DunkerqueOct 17, 2026
- Metz – SochauxOct 17, 2026
- RED Star FC 93 – Saint EtienneOct 17, 2026
- Rodez – MontpellierOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Guingamp vs PAU prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Guingamp a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and PAU 28%. Guingamp are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Guingamp vs PAU?
1-1 (12.8%), followed by 1-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.0%) and 2-1 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs PAU?
The probability that both Guingamp and PAU score is 48%. Guingamp have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, PAU 25%.
How many goals should we expect in Guingamp vs PAU?
The model expects 2.41 goals (1.38 for Guingamp, 1.03 for PAU). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.
When and where is Guingamp vs PAU played?
Friday, October 16, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Ligue 2, matchday 9. Venue: Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp.
What form are Guingamp and PAU in?
Guingamp: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded). PAU: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and PAU?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Guingamp, 2 for PAU and 1 draw. The most recent ended PAU 2-1 Guingamp (Apr 17, 2026).
What was the Guingamp vs PAU result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Guingamp 1-2 PAU. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Guingamp (45%), while victory for PAU was rated at only 28%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.6%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): missed.
How is the Guingamp vs PAU prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.38 for Guingamp, 1.03 for PAU) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.