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Ligue 2Ligue 2· Kick-off : Monday, October 12, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Dijon vs Metz: 4-2 result and AI prediction review

DijonDijon4 – 2MetzMetz

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Dijon 4-2 Metz. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Dijon at 49%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

Match analysis

Dijon and Metz met on Monday, October 12, 2026, a Ligue 2, matchday 8 fixture. Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard, Dijon. Before kick-off, our model gave Dijon a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Metz 26%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.4%).

Over their last 5 matches, Dijon have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Metz have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 8 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Dijon score 2.00 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Metz score 1.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Dijon sit 10th with 9 points from 7 games, Metz 9th with 10 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Dijon, 2 for Metz and 2 draws. The most recent ended Dijon 0-0 Metz (Feb 18, 2023). In double chance terms, "Dijon or draw" stands at 74%, "Metz or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 75%.

In short : Dijon are tipped by our AI model in this Dijon v Metz (49%). On recent form, Dijon have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Metz have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

49%
Dijon (Win)
25%
Draw
26%
Metz (Win)

Double chance

74%
Dijon or draw
51%
Metz or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Dijon – Metz. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Dijon 1-1 Metz12.0%
Dijon 1-0 Metz11.3%
Dijon 2-1 Metz9.4%
Dijon 2-0 Metz8.9%
Dijon 0-1 Metz7.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.57 expected goals for Dijon and 1.06 for Metz, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Dijon keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Metz in 21%.

Probability
Dijon expected goals1.57
Metz expected goals1.06
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Dijon clean sheet35%
Metz clean sheet21%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Dijon

DateOpponentScore
Oct 2, 2026Estac Troyes · Club Friendlies2-2D
Sep 18, 2026Annecy · Ligue 22-1W
Sep 11, 2026Laval · Ligue 23-2W
Sep 4, 2026Boulogne · Ligue 21-1D
Aug 31, 2026Saint Etienne · Ligue 22-3L

Metz

DateOpponentScore
Sep 19, 2026Saint Etienne · Ligue 22-2D
Sep 14, 2026RED Star FC 93 · Ligue 20-1L
Sep 5, 2026Rodez · Ligue 24-1W
Aug 29, 2026Annecy · Ligue 21-1D
Aug 22, 2026Laval · Ligue 21-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Dijon1097
Metz9107

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 18, 2023Dijon 0-0 MetzLigue 2
Aug 27, 2022Metz 1-2 DijonLigue 2
May 2, 2021Dijon 1-5 MetzLigue 1
Nov 8, 2020Metz 1-1 DijonLigue 1
Aug 7, 2020Dijon 1-2 MetzClub Friendlies

Out and doubtful

Dijon

No absences reported.

Metz

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Dijon

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • L. Lacroix5/5
  • P. Delecroix5/5
  • B. Ndezi4/5
  • Q. Bernard4/5
  • T. Dong4/5
  • A. Lembezat3/5
  • B. Hamada3/5
  • M. Faty3/5
  • P. Bellon3/5
  • A. Lago2/5
  • J. Marie2/5

Metz

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • B. Sarr5/5
  • C. Devenish5/5
  • G. Abuashvili5/5
  • J. Deminguet5/5
  • B. Munongo4/5
  • F. Miguel4/5
  • J. Fischer4/5
  • J. Pandore4/5
  • T. Savanier4/5
  • J. Ruiz3/5
  • P. M. Fall3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Dijon vs Metz prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Dijon a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Metz 26%. Dijon are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Dijon vs Metz?

1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.9%) and 0-1 (7.6%).

Will both teams score in Dijon vs Metz?

The probability that both Dijon and Metz score is 52%. Dijon have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Metz 21%.

How many goals should we expect in Dijon vs Metz?

The model expects 2.63 goals (1.57 for Dijon, 1.06 for Metz). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Dijon vs Metz played?

Monday, October 12, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 2, matchday 8. Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard, Dijon.

What form are Dijon and Metz in?

Dijon: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded). Metz: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Metz?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Dijon, 2 for Metz and 2 draws. The most recent ended Dijon 0-0 Metz (Feb 18, 2023).

What was the Dijon vs Metz result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Dijon 4-2 Metz. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Dijon at 49%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

How is the Dijon vs Metz prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.57 for Dijon, 1.06 for Metz) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained