Ligue 2· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Montpellier vs Grenoble: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Montpellier 2-0 Grenoble. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Montpellier was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (12.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): correct.
Match analysis
Montpellier vs Grenoble was played on Friday, October 9, 2026 (Ligue 2, matchday 8). Venue: Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier. Before kick-off, our model gave Montpellier a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Grenoble 16%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (16.3%), ahead of 2-0 (12.9%) and 1-1 (11.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Montpellier have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Grenoble have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 3. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Montpellier score 0.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Grenoble score 1.20 and concede 0.60. In the table, Montpellier sit 4th with 12 points from 7 games, Grenoble 13th with 8 points from 7. 9 places separate the two sides.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Montpellier, 0 for Grenoble and 1 draw. The most recent ended Montpellier 2-1 Grenoble (Apr 17, 2026). In double chance terms, "Montpellier or draw" stands at 84%, "Grenoble or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Montpellier to edge Grenoble (59% probability). On recent form, Montpellier have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Grenoble have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Montpellier – Grenoble. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Montpellier 1-0 Grenoble | 16.3% |
| Montpellier 2-0 Grenoble | 12.9% |
| Montpellier 1-1 Grenoble | 11.2% |
| Montpellier 0-0 Grenoble | 10.2% |
| Montpellier 2-1 Grenoble | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.28 goals in total (1.59 for Montpellier, 0.69 for Grenoble): over 2.5 goals has a 40% probability and both teams to score 40%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 50% of scenarios, Grenoble in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Montpellier expected goals | 1.59 |
| Grenoble expected goals | 0.69 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Montpellier clean sheet | 50% |
| Grenoble clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Montpellier
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Reims · Ligue 2 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 11, 2026 | PAU · Ligue 2 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Saint Etienne · Ligue 2 | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Boulogne · Ligue 2 | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunkerque · Ligue 2 | 1-0 | W |
Grenoble
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Clermont Foot · Ligue 2 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rodez · Ligue 2 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Annecy · Ligue 2 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Laval · Ligue 2 | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier | 4 | 12 | 7 |
| Grenoble | 13 | 8 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Montpellier 2-1 Grenoble | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Grenoble 1-1 Montpellier | Ligue 2 |
Out and doubtful
Montpellier
No absences reported.
Grenoble
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Montpellier
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Tardieu5/5
- J. Laporte5/5
- N. Mukiele5/5
- N. Pays5/5
- S. Ngapandouetnbu5/5
- T. Sainte-Luce5/5
- D. Meddah4/5
- H. Abderrebi3/5
- L. Megnan-Pave3/5
- Y. Mouanga3/5
- M. Camara2/5
Grenoble
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Olliero4/4
- A. Pelon4/4
- B. Mouazan4/4
- C. Vidal4/4
- J. Akpa Akpro4/4
- L. Bernadou4/4
- M. Xantippe4/4
- N. Zahui4/4
- S. Diba4/4
- Y. Magnin4/4
- U. Bonnet2/4
Other matches in this competition
- Dunkerque 0-1 AnnecyOct 9, 2026
- PAU 3-2 LavalOct 9, 2026
- Nancy 1-0 GuingampOct 9, 2026
- Sochaux 1-1 BoulogneOct 9, 2026
- Clermont Foot 2-3 RED Star FC 93Oct 10, 2026
- Nantes 0-0 ReimsOct 10, 2026
- Saint Etienne 2-0 RodezOct 10, 2026
- Dijon 4-2 MetzOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Montpellier vs Grenoble prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Montpellier a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Grenoble 16%. Montpellier are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Montpellier vs Grenoble?
1-0 (16.3%), followed by 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Grenoble?
The probability that both Montpellier and Grenoble score is 40%. Montpellier have a 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Grenoble 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Montpellier vs Grenoble?
The model expects 2.28 goals (1.59 for Montpellier, 0.69 for Grenoble). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Montpellier vs Grenoble played?
Friday, October 9, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Ligue 2, matchday 8. Venue: Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier.
What form are Montpellier and Grenoble in?
Montpellier: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded). Grenoble: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Grenoble?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Montpellier, 0 for Grenoble and 1 draw. The most recent ended Montpellier 2-1 Grenoble (Apr 17, 2026).
What was the Montpellier vs Grenoble result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Montpellier 2-0 Grenoble. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Montpellier was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (12.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): correct.
How is the Montpellier vs Grenoble prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.59 for Montpellier, 0.69 for Grenoble) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Montpellier predictions
- All Grenoble predictions
- Ligue 2 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology