Ligue 2· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Montpellier vs Grenoble prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Ligue 2, matchday 8: the Montpellier vs Grenoble match is scheduled on Friday, October 9, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time). Venue: Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier. With a 66% win probability, Montpellier go in as strong favourites against Grenoble (14%), with the draw rated at 20%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.0%), ahead of 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Montpellier have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Grenoble have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Montpellier. On average Montpellier score 0.80 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Grenoble score 1.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Montpellier sit 4th with 12 points from 7 games, Grenoble 13th with 8 points from 7. 9 places separate the two sides.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Montpellier, 0 for Grenoble and 1 draw. The most recent ended Montpellier 2-1 Grenoble (Apr 17, 2026). In double chance terms, "Montpellier or draw" stands at 86%, "Grenoble or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Our model backs Montpellier to edge Grenoble (66% probability). On recent form, Montpellier have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Grenoble have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 48%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Montpellier – Grenoble. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Montpellier 2-0 Grenoble | 12.0% |
| Montpellier 1-0 Grenoble | 11.7% |
| Montpellier 2-1 Grenoble | 9.7% |
| Montpellier 1-1 Grenoble | 9.5% |
| Montpellier 3-0 Grenoble | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.86 goals in total (2.05 for Montpellier, 0.81 for Grenoble): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 48%. Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Grenoble in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Montpellier expected goals | 2.05 |
| Grenoble expected goals | 0.81 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Montpellier clean sheet | 45% |
| Grenoble clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Montpellier
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | PAU · Ligue 2 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Saint Etienne · Ligue 2 | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Boulogne · Ligue 2 | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunkerque · Ligue 2 | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Nancy · Ligue 2 | 1-0 | W |
Grenoble
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rodez · Ligue 2 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Annecy · Ligue 2 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Laval · Ligue 2 | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Saint Etienne · Ligue 2 | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Metz · Ligue 2 | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier | 4 | 12 | 7 |
| Grenoble | 13 | 8 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Montpellier 2-1 Grenoble | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Grenoble 1-1 Montpellier | Ligue 2 |
Out and doubtful
Montpellier
No absences reported.
Grenoble
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Montpellier
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Laporte5/5
- N. Mukiele5/5
- N. Pays5/5
- S. Ngapandouetnbu5/5
- T. Sainte-Luce5/5
- D. Meddah4/5
- F. Tardieu4/5
- L. Megnan-Pave4/5
- Y. Mouanga4/5
- H. Abderrebi3/5
- N. Vidal-Cartoux3/5
Grenoble
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Olliero5/5
- B. Mouazan5/5
- C. Vidal5/5
- J. Akpa Akpro5/5
- M. Xantippe5/5
- N. Zahui5/5
- Y. Magnin5/5
- A. Pelon3/5
- K. Fofana3/5
- L. Bernadou3/5
- S. Diba3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Dunkerque – AnnecyOct 9, 2026
- PAU – LavalOct 9, 2026
- Nancy – GuingampOct 9, 2026
- Sochaux – BoulogneOct 9, 2026
- Clermont Foot – RED Star FC 93Oct 10, 2026
- Nantes – ReimsOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Montpellier vs Grenoble prediction?
Our AI gives Montpellier a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Grenoble 14%. Montpellier are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Montpellier vs Grenoble?
2-0 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Grenoble?
The probability that both Montpellier and Grenoble score is 48%. Montpellier have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Grenoble 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Montpellier vs Grenoble?
The model expects 2.86 goals (2.05 for Montpellier, 0.81 for Grenoble). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Montpellier vs Grenoble played?
Friday, October 9, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Ligue 2, matchday 8. Venue: Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier.
What form are Montpellier and Grenoble in?
Montpellier: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 3 conceded). Grenoble: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Grenoble?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Montpellier, 0 for Grenoble and 1 draw. The most recent ended Montpellier 2-1 Grenoble (Apr 17, 2026).
How is the Montpellier vs Grenoble prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.05 for Montpellier, 0.81 for Grenoble) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Montpellier predictions
- All Grenoble predictions
- Ligue 2 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology