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UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Thursday, November 12, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Italy vs France prediction: correct score and AI tips

ItalyItaly–FranceFrance

Match analysis

Italy take on France on Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. The edge goes to France (51%), ahead of the draw (19%) and a Italy win (30%).

Over their last 5 matches, Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, France have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Italy score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; France score 2.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Italy sit 2nd with 7 points from 4 games, France 1st with 10 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Italy have averaged 2.04 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.44 for France.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Italy, 2 for France and 1 draw. The most recent ended France 1-1 Italy (Oct 2, 2026). In double chance terms, "Italy or draw" stands at 49%, "France or draw" at 70% and "no draw" at 81%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

30%
Italy (Win)
19%
Draw
51%
France (Win)

Double chance

49%
Italy or draw
70%
France or draw
81%
No draw

Exact score and goal markets 🔒

The most likely exact score, the top 5 scorelines, expected goals and the both-teams-to-score and over/under probabilities are part of the full prediction. They will be published here as a review once the match is over.

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Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Italy

DateOpponentScore
Oct 5, 2026Türkiye · UEFA Nations League3-1W
Oct 2, 2026France · UEFA Nations League1-1D
Sep 28, 2026Türkiye · UEFA Nations League4-1W
Sep 25, 2026Belgium · UEFA Nations League0-2L
Jun 7, 2026Greece · International Friendlies1-0W

France

DateOpponentScore
Oct 5, 2026Belgium · UEFA Nations League4-1W
Oct 2, 2026Italy · UEFA Nations League1-1D
Sep 28, 2026Belgium · UEFA Nations League1-0W
Sep 25, 2026Türkiye · UEFA Nations League1-0W
Jul 18, 2026England · FIFA World Cup4-6L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Italy274
France1104

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 2, 2026France 1-1 ItalyUEFA Nations League
Nov 17, 2024Italy 1-3 FranceUEFA Nations League
Sep 6, 2024France 1-3 ItalyUEFA Nations League
Jun 1, 2018France 3-1 ItalyInternational Friendlies
Jun 17, 2008France 0-2 ItalyEuro Championship

Out and doubtful

Italy

No absences reported.

France

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Italy

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • G. Donnarumma4/5
  • F. Esposito3/5
  • A. Bastoni2/5
  • A. Romano2/5
  • G. Di Lorenzo2/5
  • G. Mancini2/5
  • M. Kean2/5
  • N. Barella2/5
  • R. Calafiori2/5
  • S. Tonali2/5
  • A. Vergara1/5

France

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Doue3/5
  • M. Lacroix3/5
  • M. Maignan3/5
  • A. Diouf2/5
  • A. Rabiot2/5
  • B. Barcola2/5
  • E. Camavinga2/5
  • E. Lepaul2/5
  • J. Jacquet2/5
  • L. Da Cunha2/5
  • M. Akliouche2/5

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Frequently asked questions

What is the Italy vs France prediction?

Our AI gives Italy a 30% chance of winning, the draw 19% and France 51%. France are therefore favourites.

When and where is Italy vs France played?

Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.

What form are Italy and France in?

Italy: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). France: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Italy and France?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Italy, 2 for France and 1 draw. The most recent ended France 1-1 Italy (Oct 2, 2026).

Go further

Key terms explained