Chilean Primera División· Kick-off : Monday, November 2, 2026, 23:30 (UK time)
Concepción vs Palestino: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Concepción 1-0 Palestino. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Palestino (53%), while victory for Concepción was rated at only 22%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): correct.
Match analysis
Concepción and Palestino met on Monday, November 2, 2026, a Chilean Primera División, matchday 26 fixture. Venue: Estadio Municipal Ester Roa Concepcion, Concepcion. Before kick-off, our model gave Concepción a 22% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Palestino 53%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 1-1 (11.9%) and 0-2 (10.0%).
Concepción have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Palestino have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Palestino therefore arrive in far better shape than Concepción. On average Concepción score 0.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Palestino score 1.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, Concepción sit 11th with 32 points from 25 games, Palestino 5th with 38 points from 25. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Concepción have averaged 0.96 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.58 for Palestino.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Concepción, 0 for Palestino and 0 draws. The most recent ended Palestino 0-1 Concepción (Apr 24, 2026). In double chance terms, "Concepción or draw" stands at 47%, "Palestino or draw" at 78% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Palestino to edge Concepción (53% probability). On recent form, Concepción have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Palestino have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 49%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Concepción – Palestino. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Concepción 0-1 Palestino | 12.5% |
| Concepción 1-1 Palestino | 11.9% |
| Concepción 0-2 Palestino | 10.0% |
| Concepción 1-2 Palestino | 9.5% |
| Concepción 0-0 Palestino | 7.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.95 expected goals for Concepción and 1.60 for Palestino, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 47% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Concepción keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, Palestino in 39%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Concepción expected goals | 0.95 |
| Palestino expected goals | 1.60 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Concepción clean sheet | 20% |
| Palestino clean sheet | 39% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Concepción
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | D. La Serena · Chilean Primera División | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Union La Calera · Chilean Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | O'Higgins · Copa Chile | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 1, 2026 | O'Higgins · Copa Chile | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Curico Unido · Copa Chile | 2-0 | W |
Palestino
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Colo Colo · Chilean Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Deportes Limache · Chilean Primera División | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Alianza Lima · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | U. Catolica · Chilean Primera División | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Universidad de Concepcion · Chilean Primera División | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concepción | 11 | 32 | 25 |
| Palestino | 5 | 38 | 25 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Palestino 0-1 Concepción | Chilean Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Concepción
No absences reported.
Palestino
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Concepción
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Varas5/5
- M. Sandoval5/5
- N. Araya5/5
- E. Espinoza4/5
- F. Grillo4/5
- J. Larrivey4/5
- A. Caceres3/5
- J. Henriquez3/5
- N. Rodriguez3/5
- A. Cáceres2/5
- J. Henríquez2/5
Palestino
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Carrasco3/5
- C. Munder3/5
- D. Glaby3/5
- E. Roco3/5
- M. Eggel3/5
- S. Gallegos3/5
- Bryan Carrasco2/5
- César Munder2/5
- D. Zúñiga2/5
- Dilan Zúñiga2/5
- Enzo Roco2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Colo Colo 6-1 Universidad de ConcepcionOct 30, 2026
- Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Union La CaleraOct 30, 2026
- O'Higgins 1-0 NublenseOct 31, 2026
- Huachipato 0-0 D. La SerenaNov 1, 2026
- U. Catolica 1-0 Universidad de ChileNov 1, 2026
- Cobresal 2-2 Everton de VinaNov 1, 2026
- Deportes Limache 2-0 A. ItalianoNov 2, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Concepción vs Palestino prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Concepción a 22% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Palestino 53%. Palestino are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Concepción vs Palestino?
0-1 (12.5%), followed by 1-1 (11.9%), 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-0 (7.8%).
Will both teams score in Concepción vs Palestino?
The probability that both Concepción and Palestino score is 49%. Concepción have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Palestino 39%.
How many goals should we expect in Concepción vs Palestino?
The model expects 2.55 goals (0.95 for Concepción, 1.60 for Palestino). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 47%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Concepción vs Palestino played?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time), Chilean Primera División, matchday 26. Venue: Estadio Municipal Ester Roa Concepcion, Concepcion.
What form are Concepción and Palestino in?
Concepción: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded). Palestino: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Concepción and Palestino?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Concepción, 0 for Palestino and 0 draws. The most recent ended Palestino 0-1 Concepción (Apr 24, 2026).
What was the Concepción vs Palestino result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Concepción 1-0 Palestino. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Palestino (53%), while victory for Concepción was rated at only 22%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): correct.
How is the Concepción vs Palestino prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.95 for Concepción, 1.60 for Palestino) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Concepción predictions
- All Palestino predictions
- Chilean Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology