Skip to content
Elofoot

Chilean Primera DivisiónChilean Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 21:30 (UK time)

Concepción vs Union La Calera: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

ConcepciónConcepción1 – 1Union La CaleraUnion La Calera

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Concepción 1-1 Union La Calera. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Concepción (70%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.7%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (57%): missed.

Match analysis

Concepción and Union La Calera met on Sunday, October 11, 2026, a Chilean Primera División, matchday 24 fixture. Venue: Estadio Municipal Ester Roa Concepcion, Concepcion. Before kick-off, our model gave Concepción a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Union La Calera 12%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.5%).

Over their last 5 matches, Concepción have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Union La Calera have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Concepción score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Union La Calera score 0.60 and concede 0.80. In the table, Concepción sit 8th with 31 points from 23 games, Union La Calera 16th with 17 points from 23. 8 places separate the two sides.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Concepción, 1 for Union La Calera and 0 draws. The most recent ended Union La Calera 1-0 Concepción (Apr 14, 2026). In double chance terms, "Concepción or draw" stands at 88%, "Union La Calera or draw" at 30% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : Our model backs Concepción to edge Union La Calera (70% probability). In the table, Concepción (8th, 31 pts) host Union La Calera (16th, 17 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 57%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

70%
Concepción (Win)
18%
Draw
12%
Union La Calera (Win)

Double chance

88%
Concepción or draw
30%
Union La Calera or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Concepción – Union La Calera. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Concepción 2-0 Union La Calera12.6%
Concepción 1-0 Union La Calera11.5%
Concepción 2-1 Union La Calera9.5%
Concepción 3-0 Union La Calera9.2%
Concepción 1-1 Union La Calera8.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.19 expected goals for Concepción and 0.76 for Union La Calera, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 57% and "both teams to score" at 47%. Concepción keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Union La Calera in 11%.

Probability
Concepción expected goals2.19
Union La Calera expected goals0.76
Both teams to score47%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Concepción clean sheet47%
Union La Calera clean sheet11%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Concepción

DateOpponentScore
Oct 4, 2026O'Higgins · Copa Chile0-2L
Oct 1, 2026O'Higgins · Copa Chile0-1L
Sep 27, 2026Curico Unido · Copa Chile2-0W
Sep 23, 2026Curico Unido · Copa Chile4-0W
Sep 13, 2026Colo Colo · Chilean Primera División1-1D

Union La Calera

DateOpponentScore
Sep 27, 2026U. Catolica · Copa Chile0-0D
Sep 24, 2026U. Catolica · Copa Chile1-1D
Sep 15, 2026Deportes Limache · Chilean Primera División1-0W
Sep 6, 2026O'Higgins · Chilean Primera División1-2L
Aug 31, 2026D. La Serena · Chilean Primera División0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Concepción83123
Union La Calera161723

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 14, 2026Union La Calera 1-0 ConcepciónChilean Primera División

Out and doubtful

Concepción

No absences reported.

Union La Calera

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Concepción

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Caceres5/5
  • D. Varas5/5
  • N. Araya5/5
  • N. Rodriguez5/5
  • E. Espinoza4/5
  • J. Henriquez4/5
  • J. Larrivey4/5
  • M. Sandoval4/5
  • F. Grillo3/5
  • M. Davila Carvajal3/5
  • D. Carrasco2/5

Union La Calera

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • C. Diaz5/5
  • J. Salomoni5/5
  • R. Perez5/5
  • C. Gutierrez4/5
  • N. Avellaneda4/5
  • S. Saez4/5
  • B. Ferreyra3/5
  • B. Oyarzo Munoz3/5
  • C. Moya3/5
  • D. Gutierrez3/5
  • M. Hiriart3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Concepción vs Union La Calera prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Concepción a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Union La Calera 12%. Concepción are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Concepción vs Union La Calera?

2-0 (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.2%) and 1-1 (8.7%).

Will both teams score in Concepción vs Union La Calera?

The probability that both Concepción and Union La Calera score is 47%. Concepción have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Union La Calera 11%.

How many goals should we expect in Concepción vs Union La Calera?

The model expects 2.95 goals (2.19 for Concepción, 0.76 for Union La Calera). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 57%, over 3.5 goals 34%.

When and where is Concepción vs Union La Calera played?

Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 21:30 (UK time), Chilean Primera División, matchday 24. Venue: Estadio Municipal Ester Roa Concepcion, Concepcion.

What form are Concepción and Union La Calera in?

Concepción: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Union La Calera: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Concepción and Union La Calera?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Concepción, 1 for Union La Calera and 0 draws. The most recent ended Union La Calera 1-0 Concepción (Apr 14, 2026).

What was the Concepción vs Union La Calera result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Concepción 1-1 Union La Calera. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Concepción (70%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.7%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (57%): missed.

How is the Concepción vs Union La Calera prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.19 for Concepción, 0.76 for Union La Calera) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained