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Chilean Primera DivisiónChilean Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 16:30 (UK time)

Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena: 3-2 result and AI prediction review

Everton de VinaEverton de Vina3 – 2D. La SerenaD. La Serena

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Everton de Vina 3-2 D. La Serena. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Everton de Vina at 55%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.

Match analysis

Everton de Vina and D. La Serena met on Sunday, October 11, 2026, a Chilean Primera División, matchday 24 fixture. Venue: Sausalito, Vina del Mar. Before kick-off, our model gave Everton de Vina a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and D. La Serena 21%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.3%) and 2-0 (10.1%).

Over their last 5 matches, Everton de Vina have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, D. La Serena have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 7. D. La Serena therefore arrive in far better shape than Everton de Vina. On average Everton de Vina score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; D. La Serena score 1.60 and concede 1.40. In the table, Everton de Vina sit 4th with 36 points from 23 games, D. La Serena 10th with 30 points from 23. 6 places separate the two sides.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Everton de Vina, 1 for D. La Serena and 0 draws. The most recent ended D. La Serena 1-0 Everton de Vina (Apr 11, 2026). In double chance terms, "Everton de Vina or draw" stands at 79%, "D. La Serena or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : Everton de Vina are favourites for this Everton de Vina v D. La Serena, with a 55% win probability from our model. In the table, Everton de Vina (4th, 36 pts) host D. La Serena (10th, 30 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

55%
Everton de Vina (Win)
24%
Draw
21%
D. La Serena (Win)

Double chance

79%
Everton de Vina or draw
45%
D. La Serena or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Everton de Vina – D. La Serena. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Everton de Vina 1-0 D. La Serena11.6%
Everton de Vina 1-1 D. La Serena11.3%
Everton de Vina 2-0 D. La Serena10.1%
Everton de Vina 2-1 D. La Serena9.8%
Everton de Vina 0-0 D. La Serena6.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.73 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.97 for D. La Serena, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, D. La Serena in 18%.

Probability
Everton de Vina expected goals1.73
D. La Serena expected goals0.97
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Everton de Vina clean sheet38%
D. La Serena clean sheet18%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Everton de Vina

DateOpponentScore
Sep 27, 2026Universidad de Chile · Copa Chile1-1D
Sep 27, 2026Universidad de Chile · Copa Chile0-1L
Sep 12, 2026Nublense · Chilean Primera División3-1W
Sep 5, 2026U. Catolica · Chilean Primera División0-1L
Aug 29, 2026Deportes Limache · Chilean Primera División3-0W

D. La Serena

DateOpponentScore
Sep 13, 2026Universidad de Chile · Chilean Primera División0-3L
Sep 6, 2026Nublense · Chilean Primera División2-1W
Aug 31, 2026Union La Calera · Chilean Primera División1-0W
Aug 23, 2026Cobresal · Chilean Primera División3-3D
Aug 15, 2026Universidad de Concepcion · Chilean Primera División2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Everton de Vina43623
D. La Serena103023

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 11, 2026D. La Serena 1-0 Everton de VinaChilean Primera División

Out and doubtful

Everton de Vina

No absences reported.

D. La Serena

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Everton de Vina

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Medina5/5
  • B. Berrios5/5
  • D. Oyarzun5/5
  • E. M. Ramos Aviles5/5
  • I. Gonzalez5/5
  • J. Moya5/5
  • L. Soto5/5
  • N. Montiel5/5
  • N. Baeza4/5
  • V. Vidal4/5
  • J. Alfaro3/5

D. La Serena

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Henriquez5/5
  • F. Chamorro5/5
  • F. Dinamarca5/5
  • I. Rasso5/5
  • J. Tapia5/5
  • J. Vargas5/5
  • R. Delgado5/5
  • B. Gutierrez4/5
  • F. Mac Allister4/5
  • M. Marin4/5
  • G. Escalante3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Everton de Vina a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and D. La Serena 21%. Everton de Vina are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena?

1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.7%).

Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena?

The probability that both Everton de Vina and D. La Serena score is 51%. Everton de Vina have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, D. La Serena 18%.

How many goals should we expect in Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena?

The model expects 2.70 goals (1.73 for Everton de Vina, 0.97 for D. La Serena). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.

When and where is Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena played?

Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time), Chilean Primera División, matchday 24. Venue: Sausalito, Vina del Mar.

What form are Everton de Vina and D. La Serena in?

Everton de Vina: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). D. La Serena: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and D. La Serena?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Everton de Vina, 1 for D. La Serena and 0 draws. The most recent ended D. La Serena 1-0 Everton de Vina (Apr 11, 2026).

What was the Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Everton de Vina 3-2 D. La Serena. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Everton de Vina at 55%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.

How is the Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.73 for Everton de Vina, 0.97 for D. La Serena) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained