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Uruguayan Primera DivisiónUruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 31, 2026, 16:00 (UK time)

Cerro vs Central Espanol: 1-2 result and AI prediction review

CerroCerro1 – 2Central EspanolCentral Espanol

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Cerro 1-2 Central Espanol. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cerro (75%), while victory for Central Espanol was rated at only 9%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (60%): correct.

Match analysis

Cerro and Central Espanol met on Saturday, October 31, 2026, a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. Venue: Monumental Luis Tróccoli, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Cerro a 75% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Central Espanol 9%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (13.0%), followed by 1-0 (10.8%) and 3-0 (10.4%).

Cerro have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. Central Espanol have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 14. Cerro therefore arrive in far better shape than Central Espanol. On average Cerro score 1.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Central Espanol score 0.20 and concede 2.80. In the table, Cerro sit 8th with 18 points from 12 games, Central Espanol 16th with 5 points from 12. 8 places separate the two sides.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cerro, 1 for Central Espanol and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cerro 1-0 Central Espanol (May 24, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cerro or draw" stands at 91%, "Central Espanol or draw" at 25% and "no draw" at 84%.

In short : Cerro are tipped by our AI model in this Cerro v Central Espanol (75%). On recent form, Cerro have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Central Espanol are struggling (5 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

75%
Cerro (Win)
16%
Draw
9%
Central Espanol (Win)

Double chance

91%
Cerro or draw
25%
Central Espanol or draw
84%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Cerro – Central Espanol. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Cerro 2-0 Central Espanol13.0%
Cerro 1-0 Central Espanol10.8%
Cerro 3-0 Central Espanol10.4%
Cerro 2-1 Central Espanol9.1%
Cerro 1-1 Central Espanol7.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.40 expected goals for Cerro and 0.70 for Central Espanol, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 60% and "both teams to score" at 46%. Goals look likely in this one. Cerro keep a clean sheet in 50% of scenarios, Central Espanol in 9%.

Probability
Cerro expected goals2.40
Central Espanol expected goals0.70
Both teams to score46%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Cerro clean sheet50%
Central Espanol clean sheet9%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Cerro

DateOpponentScore
Oct 25, 2026Atletico Torque · Uruguayan Primera División1-3L
Oct 16, 2026Cerro Largo · Uruguayan Primera División1-1D
Oct 10, 2026Defensor Sporting · Uruguayan Primera División3-2W
Oct 4, 2026Wanderers · Uruguayan Primera División0-2L
Sep 27, 2026Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División0-0D

Central Espanol

DateOpponentScore
Oct 24, 2026Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División1-3L
Oct 18, 2026Danubio · Uruguayan Primera División0-1L
Oct 15, 2026Danubio · Copa Uruguay0-6L
Oct 11, 2026Club Nacional · Uruguayan Primera División0-1L
Oct 3, 2026Deportivo Maldonado · Uruguayan Primera División0-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Cerro81812
Central Espanol16512

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 24, 2026Cerro 1-0 Central EspanolUruguayan Primera División
Apr 26, 2026Central Espanol 3-1 CerroUruguayan Primera División

Out and doubtful

Cerro

No absences reported.

Central Espanol

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Cerro

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Macelli5/5
  • C. Barros5/5
  • J. Guasone5/5
  • Y. Irrazabal5/5
  • B. Aleman4/5
  • D. Suarez4/5
  • E. Rodriguez4/5
  • G. Rodriguez4/5
  • J. Amaro4/5
  • N. Arena4/5
  • Leonardo Pais3/5

Central Espanol

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Villoldo4/4
  • G. Gandolfo4/4
  • I. Rodriguez4/4
  • L. Fernandez4/4
  • L. Pino4/4
  • M. Aguilera4/4
  • Cesar Nunes3/4
  • F. Camarda3/4
  • F. Pintado3/4
  • R. Tarragona3/4
  • I. Mendez2/4

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Cerro vs Central Espanol prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Cerro a 75% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Central Espanol 9%. Cerro are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Cerro vs Central Espanol?

2-0 (13.0%), followed by 1-0 (10.8%), 3-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.1%) and 1-1 (7.6%).

Will both teams score in Cerro vs Central Espanol?

The probability that both Cerro and Central Espanol score is 46%. Cerro have a 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Central Espanol 9%.

How many goals should we expect in Cerro vs Central Espanol?

The model expects 3.10 goals (2.40 for Cerro, 0.70 for Central Espanol). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 60%, over 3.5 goals 38%.

When and where is Cerro vs Central Espanol played?

Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 16:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Monumental Luis Tróccoli, Montevideo.

What form are Cerro and Central Espanol in?

Cerro: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded). Central Espanol: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 14 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Cerro and Central Espanol?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cerro, 1 for Central Espanol and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cerro 1-0 Central Espanol (May 24, 2026).

What was the Cerro vs Central Espanol result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Cerro 1-2 Central Espanol. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cerro (75%), while victory for Central Espanol was rated at only 9%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (60%): correct.

How is the Cerro vs Central Espanol prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.40 for Cerro, 0.70 for Central Espanol) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained