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Uruguayan Primera DivisiónUruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 31, 2026, 13:00 (UK time)

Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo: 3-1 result and AI prediction review

Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo3 – 1Cerro LargoCerro Largo

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Racing Montevideo 3-1 Cerro Largo. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Racing Montevideo was the model's favourite outcome (69%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.

Match analysis

Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo was played on Saturday, October 31, 2026 (Uruguayan Primera División). Venue: Estadio Osvaldo Roberto, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Racing Montevideo a 69% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Cerro Largo 12%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.3%), ahead of 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).

Racing Montevideo have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 8. Cerro Largo have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Racing Montevideo score 1.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Cerro Largo score 0.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Racing Montevideo sit 9th with 16 points from 12 games, Cerro Largo 14th with 9 points from 12. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Racing Montevideo, 0 for Cerro Largo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Racing Montevideo 1-0 Cerro Largo (May 17, 2026). In double chance terms, "Racing Montevideo or draw" stands at 88%, "Cerro Largo or draw" at 31% and "no draw" at 81%.

In short : Racing Montevideo are favourites for this Racing Montevideo v Cerro Largo, with a 69% win probability from our model. In the table, Racing Montevideo (9th, 16 pts) host Cerro Largo (14th, 9 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

69%
Racing Montevideo (Win)
19%
Draw
12%
Cerro Largo (Win)

Double chance

88%
Racing Montevideo or draw
31%
Cerro Largo or draw
81%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Racing Montevideo – Cerro Largo. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Racing Montevideo 2-0 Cerro Largo12.3%
Racing Montevideo 1-0 Cerro Largo11.5%
Racing Montevideo 2-1 Cerro Largo9.6%
Racing Montevideo 1-1 Cerro Largo9.0%
Racing Montevideo 3-0 Cerro Largo8.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.92 goals in total (2.14 for Racing Montevideo, 0.78 for Cerro Largo): over 2.5 goals has a 56% probability and both teams to score 48%. Racing Montevideo keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Cerro Largo in 12%.

Probability
Racing Montevideo expected goals2.14
Cerro Largo expected goals0.78
Both teams to score48%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Racing Montevideo clean sheet46%
Cerro Largo clean sheet12%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Racing Montevideo

DateOpponentScore
Oct 24, 2026Defensor Sporting · Uruguayan Primera División3-3D
Oct 17, 2026Wanderers · Uruguayan Primera División3-0W
Oct 11, 2026Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División0-2L
Oct 4, 2026Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División0-1L
Sep 26, 2026Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División1-2L

Cerro Largo

DateOpponentScore
Oct 25, 2026Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División2-0W
Oct 21, 2026Liverpool Montevideo · Copa Uruguay0-1L
Oct 16, 2026Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División1-1D
Oct 11, 2026Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División0-1L
Oct 4, 2026Danubio · Uruguayan Primera División1-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Racing Montevideo91612
Cerro Largo14912

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 17, 2026Racing Montevideo 1-0 Cerro LargoUruguayan Primera División
Apr 26, 2026Cerro Largo 0-1 Racing MontevideoUruguayan Primera División

Out and doubtful

Racing Montevideo

No absences reported.

Cerro Largo

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Racing Montevideo

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Agustin De la Cuesta5/5
  • E. Da Silva5/5
  • F. Alvarez5/5
  • F. Varese5/5
  • G. Cotugno5/5
  • S. Da Silva5/5
  • Y. Oyarzo5/5
  • J. Bosca4/5
  • M. Ferreira4/5
  • A. Vazquez3/5
  • Brazionis3/5

Cerro Largo

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Hernandez4/4
  • A. Piegas4/4
  • P. M. Gonzalez Ojeda4/4
  • S. Assis4/4
  • S. Franca4/4
  • A. Pandiani3/4
  • A. Prado3/4
  • B. Lozano3/4
  • S. Marcel3/4
  • E. de Leon2/4
  • G. Viera2/4

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Racing Montevideo a 69% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Cerro Largo 12%. Racing Montevideo are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?

2-0 (12.3%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%) and 3-0 (8.8%).

Will both teams score in Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?

The probability that both Racing Montevideo and Cerro Largo score is 48%. Racing Montevideo have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cerro Largo 12%.

How many goals should we expect in Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?

The model expects 2.92 goals (2.14 for Racing Montevideo, 0.78 for Cerro Largo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.

When and where is Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo played?

Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Osvaldo Roberto, Montevideo.

What form are Racing Montevideo and Cerro Largo in?

Racing Montevideo: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded). Cerro Largo: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Racing Montevideo and Cerro Largo?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Racing Montevideo, 0 for Cerro Largo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Racing Montevideo 1-0 Cerro Largo (May 17, 2026).

What was the Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Racing Montevideo 3-1 Cerro Largo. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Racing Montevideo was the model's favourite outcome (69%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.

How is the Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.14 for Racing Montevideo, 0.78 for Cerro Largo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained