Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 31, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)
Penarol vs Wanderers: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Penarol 1-1 Wanderers. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Penarol (63%), while a draw was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (10.1%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): missed.
Match analysis
Penarol vs Wanderers was played on Saturday, October 31, 2026 (Uruguayan Primera División). Venue: Estadio Parque Federico Saroldi, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Penarol a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Wanderers 16%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.8%), ahead of 2-0 (11.4%) and 1-1 (10.1%).
Penarol have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 4. Wanderers have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Penarol score 0.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Wanderers score 1.00 and concede 1.80. In the table, Penarol sit 5th with 21 points from 12 games, Wanderers 11th with 15 points from 12. 6 places separate the two sides.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Penarol, 1 for Wanderers and 0 draws. The most recent ended Penarol 5-1 Wanderers (Aug 6, 2026). In double chance terms, "Penarol or draw" stands at 84%, "Wanderers or draw" at 37% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Penarol are favourites for this Penarol v Wanderers, with a 63% win probability from our model. On recent form, Penarol have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Wanderers have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Penarol – Wanderers. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Penarol 1-0 Wanderers | 11.8% |
| Penarol 2-0 Wanderers | 11.4% |
| Penarol 1-1 Wanderers | 10.1% |
| Penarol 2-1 Wanderers | 9.8% |
| Penarol 3-0 Wanderers | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.80 goals in total (1.94 for Penarol, 0.86 for Wanderers): over 2.5 goals has a 53% probability and both teams to score 49%. Penarol keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Wanderers in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Penarol expected goals | 1.94 |
| Wanderers expected goals | 0.86 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Penarol clean sheet | 42% |
| Wanderers clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Penarol
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | Atletico Torque · Copa Uruguay | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
Wanderers
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Cerrito · Copa Uruguay | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | 5 | 21 | 12 |
| Wanderers | 11 | 15 | 12 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Penarol 5-1 Wanderers | Uruguayan Primera División |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Wanderers 1-0 Penarol | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Penarol
No absences reported.
Wanderers
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Penarol
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Jaime4/4
- E. Remedi4/4
- G. Pezzella4/4
- J. Cabrera4/4
- N. Herrera4/4
- W. Aguerre4/4
- L. Umpierrez3/4
- M. Arezo3/4
- T. N. Espinosa Dovat3/4
- Jesus Trindade2/4
- L. Ferreira2/4
Wanderers
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Buffa4/4
- F. Formiliano4/4
- F. Labandeira4/4
- J. Alberti4/4
- J. Zeballos4/4
- L. Cosentino4/4
- N. Cabral4/4
- N. Furtado4/4
- N. Queiroz4/4
- D. J. Mencia Hernandez3/4
- S. Benitez3/4
Other matches in this competition
- Racing Montevideo 3-1 Cerro LargoOct 31, 2026
- Cerro 1-2 Central EspanolOct 31, 2026
- Progreso 0-2 Defensor SportingNov 1, 2026
- Boston River 1-2 Atletico TorqueNov 1, 2026
- Danubio 1-2 Club NacionalNov 1, 2026
- Liverpool Montevideo 2-0 JuventudNov 1, 2026
- Albion FC 0-0 Deportivo MaldonadoNov 2, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Penarol vs Wanderers prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Penarol a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Wanderers 16%. Penarol are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Penarol vs Wanderers?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.4%), 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Penarol vs Wanderers?
The probability that both Penarol and Wanderers score is 49%. Penarol have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Wanderers 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Penarol vs Wanderers?
The model expects 2.80 goals (1.94 for Penarol, 0.86 for Wanderers). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 31%.
When and where is Penarol vs Wanderers played?
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Parque Federico Saroldi, Montevideo.
What form are Penarol and Wanderers in?
Penarol: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 4 conceded). Wanderers: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Penarol and Wanderers?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Penarol, 1 for Wanderers and 0 draws. The most recent ended Penarol 5-1 Wanderers (Aug 6, 2026).
What was the Penarol vs Wanderers result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Penarol 1-1 Wanderers. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Penarol (63%), while a draw was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (10.1%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): missed.
How is the Penarol vs Wanderers prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.94 for Penarol, 0.86 for Wanderers) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Penarol predictions
- All Wanderers predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology