Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, November 1, 2026, 13:00 (UK time)
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting: 0-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Progreso 0-2 Defensor Sporting. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Progreso (37%), while victory for Defensor Sporting was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (6.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (38%): correct.
Match analysis
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting was played on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (Uruguayan Primera División). Venue: Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Progreso a 37% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Defensor Sporting 34%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (13.4%), ahead of 1-0 (12.4%) and 0-1 (11.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Progreso have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Defensor Sporting have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 11. Recent momentum is clearly with Progreso. On average Progreso score 1.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Defensor Sporting score 1.40 and concede 2.20. In the table, Progreso sit 7th with 19 points from 12 games, Defensor Sporting 15th with 9 points from 12. 8 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Progreso, 1 for Defensor Sporting and 0 draws. The most recent ended Defensor Sporting 1-0 Progreso (Apr 27, 2026). In double chance terms, "Progreso or draw" stands at 66%, "Defensor Sporting or draw" at 63% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Progreso host Defensor Sporting in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (29%). On recent form, Progreso have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Defensor Sporting are struggling (4 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Progreso – Defensor Sporting. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Progreso 1-1 Defensor Sporting | 13.4% |
| Progreso 1-0 Defensor Sporting | 12.4% |
| Progreso 0-1 Defensor Sporting | 11.7% |
| Progreso 0-0 Defensor Sporting | 10.9% |
| Progreso 2-1 Defensor Sporting | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.22 goals in total (1.14 for Progreso, 1.08 for Defensor Sporting): over 2.5 goals has a 38% probability and both teams to score 45%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Progreso keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Defensor Sporting in 32%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Progreso expected goals | 1.14 |
| Defensor Sporting expected goals | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% |
| Progreso clean sheet | 34% |
| Defensor Sporting clean sheet | 32% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Progreso
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Wanderers · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-1 | W |
Defensor Sporting
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-3 | D |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-3 | L |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Plaza Colonia · Copa Uruguay | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progreso | 7 | 19 | 12 |
| Defensor Sporting | 15 | 9 | 12 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Defensor Sporting 1-0 Progreso | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Progreso
No absences reported.
Defensor Sporting
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Progreso
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Cougo5/5
- A. Ocampo5/5
- A. Pinheiro5/5
- M. Juambeltz5/5
- M. Martin5/5
- N. Lopez5/5
- R. Bacchia5/5
- E. Alvarez4/5
- G. Trasante4/5
- R. Cristobal4/5
- M. Saravia3/5
Defensor Sporting
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Sorondo4/4
- G. Barrios4/4
- G. De los Santos4/4
- G. Rodriguez4/4
- K. Dawson4/4
- L. Agazzi4/4
- N. Wunsch4/4
- B. Montenegro3/4
- A. Frugone2/4
- E. Elizalde2/4
- L. de los Santos2/4
Other matches in this competition
- Racing Montevideo 3-1 Cerro LargoOct 31, 2026
- Cerro 1-2 Central EspanolOct 31, 2026
- Penarol 1-1 WanderersOct 31, 2026
- Boston River 1-2 Atletico TorqueNov 1, 2026
- Danubio 1-2 Club NacionalNov 1, 2026
- Liverpool Montevideo 2-0 JuventudNov 1, 2026
- Albion FC 0-0 Deportivo MaldonadoNov 2, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Progreso vs Defensor Sporting prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Progreso a 37% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Defensor Sporting 34%. Progreso are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
1-1 (13.4%), followed by 1-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
The probability that both Progreso and Defensor Sporting score is 45%. Progreso have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Defensor Sporting 32%.
How many goals should we expect in Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
The model expects 2.22 goals (1.14 for Progreso, 1.08 for Defensor Sporting). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 65%, over 2.5 goals 38%, over 3.5 goals 19%.
When and where is Progreso vs Defensor Sporting played?
Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo.
What form are Progreso and Defensor Sporting in?
Progreso: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded). Defensor Sporting: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Progreso and Defensor Sporting?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Progreso, 1 for Defensor Sporting and 0 draws. The most recent ended Defensor Sporting 1-0 Progreso (Apr 27, 2026).
What was the Progreso vs Defensor Sporting result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Progreso 0-2 Defensor Sporting. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Progreso (37%), while victory for Defensor Sporting was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (6.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (38%): correct.
How is the Progreso vs Defensor Sporting prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.14 for Progreso, 1.08 for Defensor Sporting) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Progreso predictions
- All Defensor Sporting predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology