Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, November 1, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)
Danubio vs Club Nacional: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Danubio 1-2 Club Nacional. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Club Nacional was the model's favourite outcome (50%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
Match analysis
Danubio vs Club Nacional was played on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (Uruguayan Primera División). Venue: Gardens of the Hippodrome, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Danubio a 25% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Club Nacional 50%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.9%), ahead of 0-1 (11.4%) and 1-2 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Danubio have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Club Nacional have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 3. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Danubio score 2.20 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Club Nacional score 1.80 and concede 0.60. In the table, Danubio sit 13th with 10 points from 12 games, Club Nacional 3rd with 23 points from 12. 10 places separate the two sides.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Danubio, 0 for Club Nacional and 1 draw. The most recent ended Danubio 0-0 Club Nacional (Jul 11, 2026). In double chance terms, "Danubio or draw" stands at 50%, "Club Nacional or draw" at 75% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Club Nacional to edge Danubio (50% probability). In the table, Danubio (13th, 10 pts) host Club Nacional (3rd, 23 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 52%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Danubio – Club Nacional. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Danubio 1-1 Club Nacional | 11.9% |
| Danubio 0-1 Club Nacional | 11.4% |
| Danubio 1-2 Club Nacional | 9.5% |
| Danubio 0-2 Club Nacional | 9.1% |
| Danubio 1-0 Club Nacional | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.64 goals in total (1.04 for Danubio, 1.60 for Club Nacional): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Danubio keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, Club Nacional in 35%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Danubio expected goals | 1.04 |
| Club Nacional expected goals | 1.60 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Danubio clean sheet | 20% |
| Club Nacional clean sheet | 35% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Danubio
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Wanderers Durazno · Copa Uruguay | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Central Espanol · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Central Espanol · Copa Uruguay | 6-0 | W |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Atletico Torque · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-1 | L |
Club Nacional
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-2 | W |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Rentistas · Copa Uruguay | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Central Espanol · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Atletico Torque · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | 13 | 10 | 12 |
| Club Nacional | 3 | 23 | 12 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Danubio 0-0 Club Nacional | Uruguayan Primera División |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Club Nacional 1-2 Danubio | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Danubio
No absences reported.
Club Nacional
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Danubio
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Rodriguez3/3
- L. Sosa3/3
- M. Brasil3/3
- M. Goicoechea3/3
- M. Peralta3/3
- M. Rinaldi3/3
- B. Tomatis2/3
- E. Cabrera2/3
- I. Rossi2/3
- J. Trasante2/3
- S. Rodriguez2/3
Club Nacional
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Rodriguez8/4
- C. Candido4/4
- G. N. Martirena Torres4/4
- L. Boggio4/4
- L. Gonzalez4/4
- M. Gomez4/4
- S. Coates4/4
- T. Correa4/4
- A. Martin3/4
- F. Calvo3/4
- L. Mejia1/4
Other matches in this competition
- Racing Montevideo 3-1 Cerro LargoOct 31, 2026
- Cerro 1-2 Central EspanolOct 31, 2026
- Penarol 1-1 WanderersOct 31, 2026
- Progreso 0-2 Defensor SportingNov 1, 2026
- Boston River 1-2 Atletico TorqueNov 1, 2026
- Liverpool Montevideo 2-0 JuventudNov 1, 2026
- Albion FC 0-0 Deportivo MaldonadoNov 2, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Danubio vs Club Nacional prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Danubio a 25% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Club Nacional 50%. Club Nacional are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Danubio vs Club Nacional?
1-1 (11.9%), followed by 0-1 (11.4%), 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (9.1%) and 1-0 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Danubio vs Club Nacional?
The probability that both Danubio and Club Nacional score is 52%. Danubio have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Club Nacional 35%.
How many goals should we expect in Danubio vs Club Nacional?
The model expects 2.64 goals (1.04 for Danubio, 1.60 for Club Nacional). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Danubio vs Club Nacional played?
Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Gardens of the Hippodrome, Montevideo.
What form are Danubio and Club Nacional in?
Danubio: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 3 conceded). Club Nacional: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Danubio and Club Nacional?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Danubio, 0 for Club Nacional and 1 draw. The most recent ended Danubio 0-0 Club Nacional (Jul 11, 2026).
What was the Danubio vs Club Nacional result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Danubio 1-2 Club Nacional. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Club Nacional was the model's favourite outcome (50%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
How is the Danubio vs Club Nacional prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.04 for Danubio, 1.60 for Club Nacional) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Danubio predictions
- All Club Nacional predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology