Süper Lig· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Beşiktaş take on Kocaelispor on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), a Süper Lig, matchday 7 fixture. Venue: Tupras Stadium, Istanbul. With a 74% win probability, Beşiktaş go in as strong favourites against Kocaelispor (10%), with the draw rated at 16%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (10.8%), ahead of 3-0 (9.3%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Beşiktaş have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 17 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Kocaelispor have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Beşiktaş score 3.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Kocaelispor score 1.00 and concede 0.80. In the table, Beşiktaş sit 3rd with 12 points from 6 games, Kocaelispor 4th with 12 points from 6. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Beşiktaş have averaged 2.23 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.98 for Kocaelispor.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 0 for Kocaelispor and 0 draws. The most recent ended Kocaelispor 0-1 Beşiktaş (Feb 28, 2026). In double chance terms, "Beşiktaş or draw" stands at 90%, "Kocaelispor or draw" at 26% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : Beşiktaş are favourites for this Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor, with a 74% win probability from our model. On recent form, Beşiktaş are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Kocaelispor have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Beşiktaş – Kocaelispor. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 46% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Beşiktaş 2-0 Kocaelispor | 10.8% |
| Beşiktaş 3-0 Kocaelispor | 9.3% |
| Beşiktaş 2-1 Kocaelispor | 9.2% |
| Beşiktaş 1-0 Kocaelispor | 8.4% |
| Beşiktaş 3-1 Kocaelispor | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.42 goals in total (2.57 for Beşiktaş, 0.85 for Kocaelispor): over 2.5 goals has a 66% probability and both teams to score 53%. Everything points to an open game. Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 43% of scenarios, Kocaelispor in 8%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Beşiktaş expected goals | 2.57 |
| Kocaelispor expected goals | 0.85 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| Beşiktaş clean sheet | 43% |
| Kocaelispor clean sheet | 8% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Beşiktaş
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Amed · Süper Lig | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Marseille · UEFA Europa League | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Erzurumspor FK · Süper Lig | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Çorum FK · Süper Lig | 6-2 | W |
Kocaelispor
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Galatasaray · Süper Lig | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Samsunspor · Süper Lig | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Konyaspor · Süper Lig | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Amed · Süper Lig | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Başakşehir · Süper Lig | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş | 3 | 12 | 6 |
| Kocaelispor | 4 | 12 | 6 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Kocaelispor 0-1 Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Beşiktaş 3-1 Kocaelispor | Süper Lig |
Out and doubtful
Beşiktaş
No absences reported.
Kocaelispor
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Beşiktaş
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Agbadou5/5
- J. Olaitan5/5
- A. Nubel4/5
- M. Murillo4/5
- O. Kokcu4/5
- S. Ozcan4/5
- D. Vlahovic3/5
- L. Trossard3/5
- R. Yilmaz3/5
- V. Cerny3/5
- E. Topcu2/5
Kocaelispor
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Dijksteel5/5
- B. Kutlu5/5
- D. Agyei5/5
- M. Haidara5/5
- S. Oztasdelen5/5
- Show5/5
- T. Zoukrou5/5
- G. Sousa4/5
- M. Baku3/5
- M. Maglica3/5
- M. Susoho3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Galatasaray – KasımpaşaOct 9, 2026
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. – AmedOct 10, 2026
- Alanyaspor – Erzurumspor FKOct 10, 2026
- Samsunspor – TrabzonsporOct 10, 2026
- Rizespor – FenerbahçeOct 10, 2026
- Konyaspor – BaşakşehirOct 11, 2026
- Gaziantep FK – Çorum FKOct 11, 2026
- Eyüpspor – GöztepeOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor prediction?
Our AI gives Beşiktaş a 74% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Kocaelispor 10%. Beşiktaş are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor?
2-0 (10.8%), followed by 3-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%) and 3-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor?
The probability that both Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor score is 53%. Beşiktaş have a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Kocaelispor 8%.
How many goals should we expect in Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor?
The model expects 3.42 goals (2.57 for Beşiktaş, 0.85 for Kocaelispor). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 66%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), Süper Lig, matchday 7. Venue: Tupras Stadium, Istanbul.
What form are Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor in?
Beşiktaş: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 7 conceded). Kocaelispor: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 0 for Kocaelispor and 0 draws. The most recent ended Kocaelispor 0-1 Beşiktaş (Feb 28, 2026).
How is the Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.57 for Beşiktaş, 0.85 for Kocaelispor) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Beşiktaş predictions
- All Kocaelispor predictions
- Süper Lig predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology