Süper Lig· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Süper Lig, matchday 7: the Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa match is scheduled on Friday, October 9, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time). Venue: Rams Park, Istanbul. Our model makes Galatasaray clear favourites: a 69% chance of winning, against 17% for the draw and 14% for Kasımpaşa. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (9.8%), followed by 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (8.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Galatasaray have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Kasımpaşa are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Galatasaray score 1.60 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Kasımpaşa score 1.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Galatasaray sit 2nd with 13 points from 6 games, Kasımpaşa 8th with 10 points from 6. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Galatasaray have averaged 1.89 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.25 for Kasımpaşa.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Galatasaray, 1 for Kasımpaşa and 0 draws. The most recent ended Kasımpaşa 1-0 Galatasaray (May 17, 2026). Galatasaray out or doubtful: G. Guvenc, M. Lemina, V. Osimhen and W. Singo. Kasımpaşa: A. Baldursson, K. Corekci and M. Ouanes. In double chance terms, "Galatasaray or draw" stands at 86%, "Kasımpaşa or draw" at 31% and "no draw" at 83%.
In short : Galatasaray are favourites for this Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa, with a 69% win probability from our model. On recent form, Galatasaray have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Kasımpaşa have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5. One to watch: Galatasaray will be without G. Guvenc and M. Lemina.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Galatasaray – Kasımpaşa. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (9.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Galatasaray 2-0 Kasımpaşa | 9.8% |
| Galatasaray 2-1 Kasımpaşa | 9.6% |
| Galatasaray 1-0 Kasımpaşa | 8.1% |
| Galatasaray 1-1 Kasımpaşa | 8.0% |
| Galatasaray 3-0 Kasımpaşa | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.41 expected goals for Galatasaray and 0.98 for Kasımpaşa, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 66% and "both teams to score" at 57%. Goals look likely in this one. Galatasaray keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Kasımpaşa in 9%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Galatasaray expected goals | 2.41 |
| Kasımpaşa expected goals | 0.98 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% |
| Galatasaray clean sheet | 38% |
| Kasımpaşa clean sheet | 9% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Galatasaray
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Trabzonspor · Süper Lig | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Kocaelispor · Süper Lig | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sporting CP · UEFA Champions League | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Başakşehir · Süper Lig | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Göztepe · Süper Lig | 3-2 | W |
Kasımpaşa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. · Süper Lig | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Amed · Süper Lig | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Başakşehir · Süper Lig | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Çorum FK · Süper Lig | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Trabzonspor · Süper Lig | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 2 | 13 | 6 |
| Kasımpaşa | 8 | 10 | 6 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Kasımpaşa 1-0 Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Galatasaray 3-0 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
Out and doubtful
Galatasaray
- G. Guvenc (out)
- M. Lemina (out)
- V. Osimhen (out)
- W. Singo (out)
Kasımpaşa
- A. Baldursson (out)
- K. Corekci (out)
- M. Ouanes (out)
Most regular starters
Galatasaray
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Gabriel Sara5/5
- D. Sanchez4/5
- L. Torreira4/5
- R. Sallai4/5
- Y. Akgun4/5
- B. Yilmaz3/5
- I. Jakobs3/5
- U. Cakir3/5
- A. Bardakci2/5
- A. Batrakov2/5
- E. Elmali2/5
Kasımpaşa
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Benedyczak5/5
- A. Gianniotis5/5
- C. Winck5/5
- M. Ilie5/5
- A. Arous4/5
- G. Yalcin4/5
- K. Demirbay4/5
- A. Baldursson3/5
- A. Karapo3/5
- E. Mendes3/5
- A. Kol2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. – AmedOct 10, 2026
- Alanyaspor – Erzurumspor FKOct 10, 2026
- Samsunspor – TrabzonsporOct 10, 2026
- Rizespor – FenerbahçeOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa prediction?
Our AI gives Galatasaray a 69% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Kasımpaşa 14%. Galatasaray are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?
2-0 (9.8%), followed by 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.1%), 1-1 (8.0%) and 3-0 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?
The probability that both Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa score is 57%. Galatasaray have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Kasımpaşa 9%.
How many goals should we expect in Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?
The model expects 3.39 goals (2.41 for Galatasaray, 0.98 for Kasımpaşa). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 66%, over 3.5 goals 44%.
When and where is Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa played?
Friday, October 9, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), Süper Lig, matchday 7. Venue: Rams Park, Istanbul.
What form are Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa in?
Galatasaray: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 11 conceded). Kasımpaşa: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Galatasaray, 1 for Kasımpaşa and 0 draws. The most recent ended Kasımpaşa 1-0 Galatasaray (May 17, 2026).
How is the Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.41 for Galatasaray, 0.98 for Kasımpaşa) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Galatasaray predictions
- All Kasımpaşa predictions
- Süper Lig predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology