Süper Lig· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Galatasaray 3-1 Kasımpaşa. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Galatasaray at 75%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.2%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.
Match analysis
Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa met on Friday, October 9, 2026, a Süper Lig, matchday 7 fixture. Venue: Rams Park, Istanbul. Before kick-off, our model gave Galatasaray a 75% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Kasımpaşa 9%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (13.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.0%) and 3-0 (10.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Galatasaray have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Kasımpaşa are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Galatasaray score 1.60 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Kasımpaşa score 1.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Galatasaray sit 2nd with 13 points from 6 games, Kasımpaşa 8th with 10 points from 6. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Galatasaray have averaged 1.64 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.16 for Kasımpaşa.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Galatasaray, 1 for Kasımpaşa and 2 draws. The most recent ended Kasımpaşa 1-0 Galatasaray (May 17, 2026). Galatasaray out or doubtful: G. Guvenc, L. Ugochukwu (suspended), M. Lemina (doubtful), V. Osimhen (doubtful), R. Sallai (doubtful) and W. Singo (doubtful). Kasımpaşa: K. Corekci, A. Baldursson (doubtful), A. Benedyczak (doubtful) and M. Ouanes (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Galatasaray or draw" stands at 91%, "Kasımpaşa or draw" at 25% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : Galatasaray are favourites for this Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa, with a 75% win probability from our model. On recent form, Galatasaray have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Kasımpaşa have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5. One to watch: Galatasaray will be without G. Guvenc and L. Ugochukwu.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Galatasaray – Kasımpaşa. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Galatasaray 2-0 Kasımpaşa | 13.1% |
| Galatasaray 1-0 Kasımpaşa | 11.0% |
| Galatasaray 3-0 Kasımpaşa | 10.4% |
| Galatasaray 2-1 Kasımpaşa | 9.1% |
| Galatasaray 1-1 Kasımpaşa | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.38 expected goals for Galatasaray and 0.69 for Kasımpaşa, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 59% and "both teams to score" at 45%. Goals look likely in this one. Galatasaray keep a clean sheet in 50% of scenarios, Kasımpaşa in 9%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Galatasaray expected goals | 2.38 |
| Kasımpaşa expected goals | 0.69 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| Galatasaray clean sheet | 50% |
| Kasımpaşa clean sheet | 9% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Galatasaray
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Pendikspor · Club Friendlies | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Trabzonspor · Süper Lig | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Kocaelispor · Süper Lig | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sporting CP · UEFA Champions League | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Başakşehir · Süper Lig | 3-2 | W |
Kasımpaşa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Konyaspor · Süper Lig | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. · Süper Lig | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Amed · Süper Lig | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Başakşehir · Süper Lig | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 2 | 13 | 6 |
| Kasımpaşa | 8 | 10 | 6 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Kasımpaşa 1-0 Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Galatasaray 3-0 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Kasımpaşa 3-3 Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Galatasaray 3-3 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Kasımpaşa 3-4 Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
Out and doubtful
Galatasaray
- G. Guvenc (out)
- L. Ugochukwu (suspended)
- M. Lemina (doubtful)
- V. Osimhen (doubtful)
- R. Sallai (doubtful)
- W. Singo (doubtful)
Kasımpaşa
- K. Corekci (out)
- A. Baldursson (doubtful)
- A. Benedyczak (doubtful)
- M. Ouanes (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Galatasaray
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Sanchez4/4
- Gabriel Sara4/4
- L. Torreira4/4
- R. Sallai4/4
- U. Cakir4/4
- Y. Akgun4/4
- I. Jakobs3/4
- L. Sane3/4
- A. Bardakci2/4
- A. Batrakov2/4
- B. Yilmaz2/4
Kasımpaşa
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Benedyczak4/4
- A. Gianniotis4/4
- C. Winck4/4
- K. Demirbay4/4
- M. Ilie4/4
- A. Karapo3/4
- A. Kol3/4
- E. Mendes3/4
- G. Yalcin3/4
- A. Arous2/4
- A. Baldursson2/4
Other matches in this competition
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-2 AmedOct 10, 2026
- Alanyaspor 0-0 Erzurumspor FKOct 10, 2026
- Samsunspor 0-3 TrabzonsporOct 10, 2026
- Rizespor 0-3 FenerbahçeOct 10, 2026
- Konyaspor 0-0 BaşakşehirOct 11, 2026
- Gaziantep FK 0-3 Çorum FKOct 11, 2026
- Beşiktaş 2-1 KocaelisporOct 11, 2026
- Eyüpspor 0-4 GöztepeOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Galatasaray a 75% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Kasımpaşa 9%. Galatasaray are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?
2-0 (13.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.0%), 3-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.1%) and 1-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?
The probability that both Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa score is 45%. Galatasaray have a 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Kasımpaşa 9%.
How many goals should we expect in Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?
The model expects 3.07 goals (2.38 for Galatasaray, 0.69 for Kasımpaşa). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 37%.
When and where is Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa played?
Friday, October 9, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), Süper Lig, matchday 7. Venue: Rams Park, Istanbul.
What form are Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa in?
Galatasaray: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 12 conceded). Kasımpaşa: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Galatasaray, 1 for Kasımpaşa and 2 draws. The most recent ended Kasımpaşa 1-0 Galatasaray (May 17, 2026).
What was the Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Galatasaray 3-1 Kasımpaşa. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Galatasaray at 75%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.2%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.
How is the Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.38 for Galatasaray, 0.69 for Kasımpaşa) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Galatasaray predictions
- All Kasımpaşa predictions
- Süper Lig predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology