Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Academica vs Amarante prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Taça de Portugal: the Academica vs Amarante match is scheduled on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra, Coimbra. Academica start as favourites with a 52% chance of victory; Amarante are given 23% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Academica have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Amarante have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Academica score 0.80 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Amarante score 0.80 and concede 1.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Academica and Amarante: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Academica or draw" stands at 77%, "Amarante or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Academica to edge Amarante (52% probability). On recent form, Academica have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Amarante have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 52%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Academica – Amarante. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Academica 1-1 Amarante | 11.7% |
| Academica 1-0 Amarante | 11.5% |
| Academica 2-1 Amarante | 9.6% |
| Academica 2-0 Amarante | 9.4% |
| Academica 0-1 Amarante | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.64 expected goals for Academica and 1.02 for Amarante, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Academica keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Amarante in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Academica expected goals | 1.64 |
| Amarante expected goals | 1.02 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Academica clean sheet | 36% |
| Amarante clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Academica
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Benfica B · Liga Portugal 2 | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Penafiel · Liga Portugal 2 | 1-4 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa · Liga Portugal 2 | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tondela · Liga Portugal 2 | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Feirense · Liga Portugal 2 | 1-0 | W |
Amarante
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | União de Leiria · Liga Portugal 2 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Leixoes · Liga Portugal 2 | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Benfica B · Liga Portugal 2 | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vizela · Liga Portugal 2 | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa · Liga Portugal 2 | 0-1 | L |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Academica and Amarante: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Academica
No absences reported.
Amarante
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Academica
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Sinisterra5/5
- Ni5/5
- A. Mane4/5
- A. Rodrigues4/5
- C. Alves4/5
- I. Faure4/5
- L. Silva4/5
- Marcos Paulo4/5
- R. Teixeira4/5
- H. Lopes3/5
- Kaka3/5
Amarante
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Zangre5/5
- Didi5/5
- F. Mendes5/5
- G. Cunha5/5
- M. Costa5/5
- D. Pereira4/5
- J. Filipe4/5
- Joao Ricardo4/5
- L. Machado4/5
- Nito4/5
- Tokinho Doria4/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Recreativa de Lamelas – GuimaraesOct 17, 2026
- Atlético CP – VizelaOct 17, 2026
- Florgrade – PortimonenseOct 17, 2026
- Vianense – LeixoesOct 17, 2026
- Farense – AD Marco 09Oct 17, 2026
- Sanjoanense – NacionalOct 17, 2026
- União de Leiria – BragançaOct 17, 2026
- Penafiel – LeçaOct 17, 2026
- Louletano – Rio AveOct 17, 2026
- CF Os Belenenses – AroucaOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Academica vs Amarante prediction?
Our AI gives Academica a 52% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Amarante 23%. Academica are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Academica vs Amarante?
1-1 (11.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.4%) and 0-1 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Academica vs Amarante?
The probability that both Academica and Amarante score is 52%. Academica have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Amarante 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Academica vs Amarante?
The model expects 2.66 goals (1.64 for Academica, 1.02 for Amarante). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Academica vs Amarante played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal. Venue: Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra, Coimbra.
What form are Academica and Amarante in?
Academica: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 9 conceded). Amarante: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Academica vs Amarante prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.64 for Academica, 1.02 for Amarante) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Academica predictions
- All Amarante predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology