Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Friday, October 16, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Chaves vs Os Marialvas prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Taça de Portugal: Chaves vs Os Marialvas kicks off on Friday, October 16, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Municipal de Chaves, Chaves. With a 60% win probability, Chaves go in as strong favourites against Os Marialvas (18%), with the draw rated at 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.9%), ahead of 2-0 (10.9%) and 1-1 (10.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Chaves have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Os Marialvas have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Os Marialvas. On average Chaves score 1.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Os Marialvas score 2.40 and concede 0.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Chaves and Os Marialvas: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Chaves or draw" stands at 82%, "Os Marialvas or draw" at 40% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Our model backs Chaves to edge Os Marialvas (60% probability). On recent form, Chaves have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Os Marialvas are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 50%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Chaves – Os Marialvas. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Chaves 1-0 Os Marialvas | 11.9% |
| Chaves 2-0 Os Marialvas | 10.9% |
| Chaves 1-1 Os Marialvas | 10.7% |
| Chaves 2-1 Os Marialvas | 9.8% |
| Chaves 3-0 Os Marialvas | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.74 goals in total (1.84 for Chaves, 0.90 for Os Marialvas): over 2.5 goals has a 52% probability and both teams to score 50%. Chaves keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Os Marialvas in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Chaves expected goals | 1.84 |
| Os Marialvas expected goals | 0.90 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Chaves clean sheet | 41% |
| Os Marialvas clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Chaves
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Vitória SC · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guarda · Taça de Portugal | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Feirense · Liga Portugal 2 | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932 · Liga Portugal 2 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | AVS · Liga Portugal 2 | 2-2 | D |
Os Marialvas
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Nazarenos · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fátima · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | AD Fornos Algodres · Taça de Portugal | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlético Malveira · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 1-0 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Chaves and Os Marialvas: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Chaves
No absences reported.
Os Marialvas
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Chaves
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rodrigues3/3
- J. Valido3/3
- Leo Alaba3/3
- Marcos Andre3/3
- Costinha2/3
- G. Garcia2/3
- Kiko2/3
- Ktatau2/3
- M. Tounkara2/3
- Roberto2/3
- T. Simoes2/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Chaves vs Os Marialvas prediction?
Our AI gives Chaves a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Os Marialvas 18%. Chaves are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
1-0 (11.9%), followed by 2-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
The probability that both Chaves and Os Marialvas score is 50%. Chaves have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Os Marialvas 16%.
How many goals should we expect in Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
The model expects 2.74 goals (1.84 for Chaves, 0.90 for Os Marialvas). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Chaves vs Os Marialvas played?
Friday, October 16, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal. Venue: Estadio Municipal de Chaves, Chaves.
What form are Chaves and Os Marialvas in?
Chaves: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 7 conceded). Os Marialvas: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 2 conceded).
How is the Chaves vs Os Marialvas prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.84 for Chaves, 0.90 for Os Marialvas) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Chaves predictions
- All Os Marialvas predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology