Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
União Santarém vs GIL Vicente prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Taça de Portugal: União Santarém vs GIL Vicente kicks off on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time). Venue: Campo Cha das Padeiras, Santarem. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives União Santarém 38%, GIL Vicente 34% and the draw 28%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (13.0%), ahead of 1-0 (11.1%) and 0-1 (10.3%).
União Santarém have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 10. GIL Vicente have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average União Santarém score 0.60 and concede 2.00 goals per game; GIL Vicente score 0.80 and concede 1.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between União Santarém and GIL Vicente: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "União Santarém or draw" stands at 66%, "GIL Vicente or draw" at 62% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : União Santarém host GIL Vicente in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (28%). On recent form, União Santarém have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while GIL Vicente have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as União Santarém – GIL Vicente. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| União Santarém 1-1 GIL Vicente | 13.0% |
| União Santarém 1-0 GIL Vicente | 11.1% |
| União Santarém 0-1 GIL Vicente | 10.3% |
| União Santarém 0-0 GIL Vicente | 8.8% |
| União Santarém 2-1 GIL Vicente | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.43 goals in total (1.26 for União Santarém, 1.17 for GIL Vicente): over 2.5 goals has a 44% probability and both teams to score 49%. União Santarém keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, GIL Vicente in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| União Santarém expected goals | 1.26 |
| GIL Vicente expected goals | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| União Santarém clean sheet | 31% |
| GIL Vicente clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
União Santarém
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Louletano · Liga 3 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Caldas · Liga 3 | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses · Liga 3 | 0-5 | L |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Oliveirense · Liga 3 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Covilha · Liga 3 | 0-2 | L |
GIL Vicente
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Maritimo · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Benfica · Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Famalicao · Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Casa Pia · Primeira Liga | 2-0 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between União Santarém and GIL Vicente: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
União Santarém
No absences reported.
GIL Vicente
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
União Santarém
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Nobrega4/4
- R. Ribeiro4/4
- A. Sousa3/4
- B. Sousa3/4
- D. Vinhas3/4
- K. John3/4
- K. Klimov3/4
- R. Camacho3/4
- R. Mordomo3/4
- J. Simoes2/4
- Maya2/4
GIL Vicente
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Pinto Martins4/5
- H. Hernandez4/5
- J. Buatu4/5
- Lucao4/5
- M. Elimbi4/5
- R. Esgaio4/5
- A. Lausen3/5
- J. Fernandes3/5
- Weverson3/5
- D. Prioste2/5
- F. Caseres2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Chaves – Os MarialvasOct 16, 2026
- Atlético CP – VizelaOct 17, 2026
- Farense – AD Marco 09Oct 17, 2026
- Sanjoanense – NacionalOct 17, 2026
- Louletano – Rio AveOct 17, 2026
- Paredes – FamalicaoOct 18, 2026
- Academica – AmaranteOct 18, 2026
- Alcochetense – MaritimoOct 18, 2026
- CF Os Belenenses – AroucaOct 18, 2026
- Fátima – Academico ViseuOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the União Santarém vs GIL Vicente prediction?
Our AI gives União Santarém a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and GIL Vicente 34%. União Santarém are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for União Santarém vs GIL Vicente?
1-1 (13.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (8.8%) and 2-1 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in União Santarém vs GIL Vicente?
The probability that both União Santarém and GIL Vicente score is 49%. União Santarém have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, GIL Vicente 28%.
How many goals should we expect in União Santarém vs GIL Vicente?
The model expects 2.43 goals (1.26 for União Santarém, 1.17 for GIL Vicente). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 44%, over 3.5 goals 23%.
When and where is União Santarém vs GIL Vicente played?
Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal. Venue: Campo Cha das Padeiras, Santarem.
What form are União Santarém and GIL Vicente in?
União Santarém: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 10 conceded). GIL Vicente: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded).
How is the União Santarém vs GIL Vicente prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.26 for União Santarém, 1.17 for GIL Vicente) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All União Santarém predictions
- All GIL Vicente predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology