Bundesliga· Kick-off : Sunday, November 8, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bayer Leverkusen at 53%. The exact score 1-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (69%): correct.
Match analysis
1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen met on Sunday, November 8, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 9 fixture. Venue: RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne. Before kick-off, our model gave 1. FC Köln a 26% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bayer Leverkusen 53%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (9.2%), followed by 1-1 (8.7%) and 2-2 (6.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, 1. FC Köln have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Bayer Leverkusen have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Both sides come in with similar form. On average 1. FC Köln score 1.60 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Bayer Leverkusen score 1.80 and concede 2.00. In the table, 1. FC Köln sit 15th with 9 points from 8 games, Bayer Leverkusen 6th with 13 points from 8. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, 1. FC Köln have averaged 1.52 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.02 for Bayer Leverkusen.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for 1. FC Köln, 5 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0 draws. The most recent ended 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Apr 25, 2026). Bayer Leverkusen: E. Ben Seghir, V. Boniface, M. Diaby, G. Doue, K. Eichhorn, C. Kofane, T. Oermann and M. Terrier. In double chance terms, "1. FC Köln or draw" stands at 47%, "Bayer Leverkusen or draw" at 74% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Bayer Leverkusen are tipped by our AI model in this 1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen (53%). On recent form, 1. FC Köln have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Bayer Leverkusen have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as 1. FC Köln – Bayer Leverkusen. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 37% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen | 9.2% |
| 1. FC Köln 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen | 8.7% |
| 1. FC Köln 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen | 6.7% |
| 1. FC Köln 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen | 6.5% |
| 1. FC Köln 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen | 6.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.45 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 2.12 for Bayer Leverkusen, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 69% and "both teams to score" at 67%. Goals look likely in this one. 1. FC Köln keep a clean sheet in 12% of scenarios, Bayer Leverkusen in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln expected goals | 1.45 |
| Bayer Leverkusen expected goals | 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% |
| 1. FC Köln clean sheet | 12% |
| Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
1. FC Köln
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Union Berlin · DFB-Pokal | 5-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
Bayer Leverkusen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | Marseille · UEFA Europa League | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 31, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga | 2-4 | L |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 1. FC Nürnberg · DFB-Pokal | 5-2 | W |
| Oct 25, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 22, 2026 | OFI · UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | 15 | 9 | 8 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 13 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| Feb 5, 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 1. FC Köln | DFB Pokal |
| Mar 3, 2024 | 1. FC Köln 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
1. FC Köln
No absences reported.
Bayer Leverkusen
- E. Ben Seghir (out)
- V. Boniface (out)
- M. Diaby (out)
- G. Doue (out)
- K. Eichhorn (out)
- C. Kofane (out)
- T. Oermann (out)
- M. Terrier (out)
Most regular starters
1. FC Köln
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Sosa4/5
- L. Maina4/5
- S. El Mala4/5
- J. Schmied3/5
- Jahmai Simpson-Pusey3/5
- S. Sebulonsen3/5
- I. Johannesson2/5
- J. Simpson-Pusey2/5
- L. Lochoshvili2/5
- M. Bulter2/5
- M. Bülter2/5
Bayer Leverkusen
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Aleix García5/5
- F. Medina4/5
- Lucas Vázquez4/5
- Miguel Gutiérrez4/5
- Afonso Moreira3/5
- E. Tapsoba3/5
- J. Hofmann3/5
- J. Quansah3/5
- P. Schick3/5
- E. Fernández2/5
- I. Maza2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Hamburger SV 3-1 Borussia MönchengladbachNov 6, 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayern MünchenNov 7, 2026
- Borussia Dortmund 2-1 SV ElversbergNov 7, 2026
- RB Leipzig 5-2 FC AugsburgNov 7, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 2-2 Eintracht FrankfurtNov 7, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 1-0 Werder BremenNov 7, 2026
- SC Freiburg 2-0 Union BerlinNov 8, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 FC Schalke 04Nov 8, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave 1. FC Köln a 26% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bayer Leverkusen 53%. Bayer Leverkusen are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1-2 (9.2%), followed by 1-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.7%), 1-3 (6.5%) and 0-2 (6.3%).
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The probability that both 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen score is 67%. 1. FC Köln have a 12% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bayer Leverkusen 24%.
How many goals should we expect in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The model expects 3.57 goals (1.45 for 1. FC Köln, 2.12 for Bayer Leverkusen). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 69%, over 3.5 goals 48%.
When and where is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen played?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 9. Venue: RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen in?
1. FC Köln: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 3 conceded). Bayer Leverkusen: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for 1. FC Köln, 5 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0 draws. The most recent ended 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Apr 25, 2026).
What was the 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bayer Leverkusen at 53%. The exact score 1-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (69%): correct.
How is the 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.45 for 1. FC Köln, 2.12 for Bayer Leverkusen) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All 1. FC Köln predictions
- All Bayer Leverkusen predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology