Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayern München. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bayern München at 75%. The exact score 1-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (8.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): correct.
Match analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München met on Saturday, November 7, 2026, a Bundesliga, matchday 9 fixture. Venue: MEWA Arena, Mainz. Before kick-off, our model gave FSV Mainz 05 a 11% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Bayern München 75%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (8.3%), followed by 1-3 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.6%).
FSV Mainz 05 have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 13. Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 15 and conceding 6. Bayern München therefore arrive in far better shape than FSV Mainz 05. On average FSV Mainz 05 score 1.40 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Bayern München score 3.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th with 10 points from 8 games, Bayern München 1st with 18 points from 8. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, FSV Mainz 05 have averaged 1.66 xG (expected goals) per match, against 3.17 for Bayern München.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for FSV Mainz 05, 3 for Bayern München and 1 draw. The most recent ended FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern München (Apr 25, 2026). Bayern München: L. Diaz, S. Gnabry, J. Musiala and I. Saibari. In double chance terms, "FSV Mainz 05 or draw" stands at 25%, "Bayern München or draw" at 89% and "no draw" at 86%.
In short : Our model backs Bayern München to edge FSV Mainz 05 (75% probability). On recent form, FSV Mainz 05 are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Bayern München have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 77%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as FSV Mainz 05 – Bayern München. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayern München | 8.3% |
| FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Bayern München | 8.2% |
| FSV Mainz 05 0-2 Bayern München | 7.6% |
| FSV Mainz 05 0-3 Bayern München | 7.5% |
| FSV Mainz 05 1-4 Bayern München | 6.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.10 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.96 for Bayern München, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 77% and "both teams to score" at 63%. Goals look likely in this one. FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Bayern München in 33%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 expected goals | 1.10 |
| Bayern München expected goals | 2.96 |
| Both teams to score | 63% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 5% |
| Bayern München clean sheet | 33% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
FSV Mainz 05
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 27, 2026 | VfL Bochum · DFB-Pokal | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga | 3-4 | L |
Bayern München
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 1. FC Magdeburg · DFB-Pokal | 6-1 | W |
| Oct 25, 2026 | SC Freiburg · Bundesliga | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Arsenal · UEFA Champions League | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Bayern München | 1 | 18 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Bayern München 2-2 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Bayern München 3-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Dec 14, 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| Oct 30, 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 0-4 Bayern München | DFB Pokal |
Out and doubtful
FSV Mainz 05
No absences reported.
Bayern München
- L. Diaz (out)
- S. Gnabry (out)
- J. Musiala (out)
- I. Saibari (out)
Most regular starters
FSV Mainz 05
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- K. Potulski5/5
- K. Sano5/5
- P. Mwene5/5
- P. Tietz5/5
- S. Becker5/5
- S. Posch5/5
- A. Caci4/5
- A. Schwolow4/5
- D. da Costa4/5
- N. Amiri4/5
- Lee Jae-Sung3/5
Bayern München
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- K. Laimer4/5
- A. Davies3/5
- D. Upamecano3/5
- H. Kane3/5
- I. Saibari3/5
- J. Stanišić3/5
- M. Olise3/5
- S. Gnabry3/5
- T. Bischof3/5
- A. Pavlović2/5
- J. Kimmich2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Hamburger SV 3-1 Borussia MönchengladbachNov 6, 2026
- Borussia Dortmund 2-1 SV ElversbergNov 7, 2026
- RB Leipzig 5-2 FC AugsburgNov 7, 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 2-2 Eintracht FrankfurtNov 7, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 1-0 Werder BremenNov 7, 2026
- 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenNov 8, 2026
- SC Freiburg 2-0 Union BerlinNov 8, 2026
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 FC Schalke 04Nov 8, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave FSV Mainz 05 a 11% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Bayern München 75%. Bayern München are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
1-2 (8.3%), followed by 1-3 (8.2%), 0-2 (7.6%), 0-3 (7.5%) and 1-4 (6.1%).
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München score is 63%. FSV Mainz 05 have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bayern München 33%.
How many goals should we expect in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The model expects 4.06 goals (1.10 for FSV Mainz 05, 2.96 for Bayern München). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 77%, over 3.5 goals 58%.
When and where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München played?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 9. Venue: MEWA Arena, Mainz.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München in?
FSV Mainz 05: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 13 conceded). Bayern München: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for FSV Mainz 05, 3 for Bayern München and 1 draw. The most recent ended FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern München (Apr 25, 2026).
What was the FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayern München. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bayern München at 75%. The exact score 1-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (8.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): correct.
How is the FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.10 for FSV Mainz 05, 2.96 for Bayern München) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All FSV Mainz 05 predictions
- All Bayern München predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology