UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Ararat-Armenia vs Celje: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Ararat-Armenia at 54%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.7%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
Match analysis
Ararat-Armenia and Celje met on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan. Before kick-off, our model gave Ararat-Armenia a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Celje 22%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.5%) and 2-0 (9.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ararat-Armenia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Celje have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 9 and conceding 9. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Ararat-Armenia score 1.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Celje score 1.80 and concede 1.80.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ararat-Armenia, 0 for Celje and 0 draws. In double chance terms, "Ararat-Armenia or draw" stands at 78%, "Celje or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ararat-Armenia – Celje. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Celje | 11.6% |
| Ararat-Armenia 1-1 Celje | 11.5% |
| Ararat-Armenia 2-0 Celje | 9.8% |
| Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje | 9.7% |
| Ararat-Armenia 0-0 Celje | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.69 expected goals for Ararat-Armenia and 0.99 for Celje, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Ararat-Armenia keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Celje in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia expected goals | 1.69 |
| Celje expected goals | 0.99 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Ararat-Armenia clean sheet | 37% |
| Celje clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Ararat-Armenia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers · UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Riga · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Riga · UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Vojvodina · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Celje
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë · UEFA Champions League | 3-3 | D |
| Jul 8, 2026 | MTK Budapest · Club Friendlies | 4-3 | W |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Cukaricki · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 1, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Head-to-head
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ararat-Armenia, 0 for Celje and 0 draws.
Out and doubtful
Ararat-Armenia
No absences reported.
Celje
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Mjallby AIF 1-2 Slovan BratislavaAug 4, 2026
- Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 FK Crvena ZvezdaAug 4, 2026
- Levski Sofia 1-0 Kairat AlmatyAug 4, 2026
- Sparta Praha 2-1 LyonAug 4, 2026
- Olympiakos Piraeus 0-0 NEC NijmegenAug 4, 2026
- Union St. Gilloise 3-3 Bodo/GlimtAug 4, 2026
- Dinamo Zagreb 5-0 Kauno ŽalgirisAug 4, 2026
- Aarhus 2-1 Sabah FAAug 5, 2026
- Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm GrazAug 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ararat-Armenia vs Celje prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Ararat-Armenia a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Celje 22%. Ararat-Armenia are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Ararat-Armenia vs Celje?
1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.5%), 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Ararat-Armenia vs Celje?
The probability that both Ararat-Armenia and Celje score is 51%. Ararat-Armenia have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Celje 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Ararat-Armenia vs Celje?
The model expects 2.68 goals (1.69 for Ararat-Armenia, 0.99 for Celje). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Ararat-Armenia vs Celje played?
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan.
What form are Ararat-Armenia and Celje in?
Ararat-Armenia: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded). Celje: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Ararat-Armenia and Celje?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ararat-Armenia, 0 for Celje and 0 draws.
What was the Ararat-Armenia vs Celje result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Ararat-Armenia at 54%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.7%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
How is the Ararat-Armenia vs Celje prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.69 for Ararat-Armenia, 0.99 for Celje) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ararat-Armenia predictions
- All Celje predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology