UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Sparta Praha vs Lyon: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Sparta Praha 2-1 Lyon. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lyon (43%), while victory for Sparta Praha was rated at only 31%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (7.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
Match analysis
Sparta Praha and Lyon met on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Pragues Letna Hill, Prague. Before kick-off, our model gave Sparta Praha a 31% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lyon 43%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.4%), followed by 0-1 (10.6%) and 1-2 (8.9%).
Sparta Praha have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Lyon have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Lyon therefore arrive in far better shape than Sparta Praha. On average Sparta Praha score 1.60 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Lyon score 2.00 and concede 2.00.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sparta Praha, 2 for Lyon and 0 draws. In double chance terms, "Sparta Praha or draw" stands at 57%, "Lyon or draw" at 69% and "no draw" at 74%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sparta Praha – Lyon. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sparta Praha 1-1 Lyon | 12.4% |
| Sparta Praha 0-1 Lyon | 10.6% |
| Sparta Praha 1-2 Lyon | 8.9% |
| Sparta Praha 1-0 Lyon | 8.7% |
| Sparta Praha 0-2 Lyon | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.17 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.43 for Lyon, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Lyon in 31%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sparta Praha expected goals | 1.17 |
| Lyon expected goals | 1.43 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Sparta Praha clean sheet | 24% |
| Lyon clean sheet | 31% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Sparta Praha
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Opava · Club Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
| Mar 19, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar · UEFA Conference League | 0-4 | L |
| Mar 12, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar · UEFA Conference League | 1-2 | L |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Legia Warszawa · Club Friendlies | 3-3 | D |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Malmo FF · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Lyon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Real Betis · Club Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Jul 24, 2026 | VfL Wolfsburg · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Slavia Praha · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Servette FC · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 11, 2026 | FC ST. Gallen · Club Friendlies | 6-3 | W |
Head-to-head
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sparta Praha, 2 for Lyon and 0 draws.
Out and doubtful
Sparta Praha
No absences reported.
Lyon
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Ararat-Armenia 2-1 CeljeAug 4, 2026
- Mjallby AIF 1-2 Slovan BratislavaAug 4, 2026
- Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 FK Crvena ZvezdaAug 4, 2026
- Levski Sofia 1-0 Kairat AlmatyAug 4, 2026
- Olympiakos Piraeus 0-0 NEC NijmegenAug 4, 2026
- Union St. Gilloise 3-3 Bodo/GlimtAug 4, 2026
- Dinamo Zagreb 5-0 Kauno ŽalgirisAug 4, 2026
- Aarhus 2-1 Sabah FAAug 5, 2026
- Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm GrazAug 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sparta Praha vs Lyon prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Sparta Praha a 31% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lyon 43%. Lyon are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Sparta Praha vs Lyon?
1-1 (12.4%), followed by 0-1 (10.6%), 1-2 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Lyon?
The probability that both Sparta Praha and Lyon score is 53%. Sparta Praha have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lyon 31%.
How many goals should we expect in Sparta Praha vs Lyon?
The model expects 2.60 goals (1.17 for Sparta Praha, 1.43 for Lyon). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Sparta Praha vs Lyon played?
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Pragues Letna Hill, Prague.
What form are Sparta Praha and Lyon in?
Sparta Praha: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 11 conceded). Lyon: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Lyon?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sparta Praha, 2 for Lyon and 0 draws.
What was the Sparta Praha vs Lyon result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Sparta Praha 2-1 Lyon. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lyon (43%), while victory for Sparta Praha was rated at only 31%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (7.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
How is the Sparta Praha vs Lyon prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.17 for Sparta Praha, 1.43 for Lyon) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sparta Praha predictions
- All Lyon predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology